SCI/TECH: Bird Flu Alert: Europe on the brink?

When I read the story carefully, I note the caveat that 50 people are only suspected of infection.

The number of people confirmed infected and/or deceased is certainly not 50. As for the symptoms exhibited by the people suspected of carrying it, why do you think it's called avian influenza?

Until their condition is confirmed by labs or by more obvious indications (half of them dying in the next week) I wouldn't back that pickup into Sam's club any time soon. You should always be prepared, but nobody wants to end up sitting on enough industrial size rolls of charmin to TP the world over twice while everyone else looks on in wonder... might open a toilet paper museum, like that giant ball of rubber bands that everyone goes to see. That probably started out as someone who thought they couldn't live through WWIII without rubber bands back when Cuba was packing thermonuclear heat.

On the other hand, if Turkey is the springboard, get ready to see people get creative with containment protocol. ("Shotguns and panic IS the containment protocol!")

if their are (14 confirmed cases) in a weekend, how come china etc have had 60-70 in all this time?

looks like people are either dieng from it and not be stated as teh cause of death, or it is beign coverd up

Originally posted by manta
if their are (14 confirmed cases) in a weekend, how come china etc have had 60-70 in all this time?

looks like people are either dieng from it and not be stated as teh cause of death, or it is beign coverd up

Wouldn't surpise me if China was covering up, they're not exactly an open society. (granted, they are not North Korea in their style, but still pretty iffy)

Originally posted by stumason

Wouldn't surpise me if China was covering up, they're not exactly an open society.

Eastern and Western scientists have been insisting for years that molecular diagnostics are needed to monitor the bird flu situation. But no one really has listened, East or West.

Michigan and California reported at least 3 H5N1 bird flu cases in the past couple of years - but the US only now is setting up an extremely limited monitoring program.

U.S. Farmers to Begin Testing Chickens for Flu


Undeveloped countries can't afford to monitor or educate their people properly. Ignorant farmers sabotage the efforts that are made in order to 'protect' their poultry flocks - their livelihoods and means to feed their children.

In developed countries, bird flu monitoring and prevention is blocked and sabotaged by corporations to 'protect' their profits.

But doing the same thing to protect profits is somehow more defensible?






[edit on 9-1-2006 by soficrow]

No, not at all. I know that our own Governments have intially been slow to act and i am not trying to pin the blame on China.

If anything, countries under a more authoritarian style of Government tend to act quicker and more decisively as they don't have to sit around talking about it for 4 weeks whilst it goes through commitees and think-tanks....

I do, however, find it quite disturbing that even after the deaths of children and being made aware (wether for the first time or not) of the Virus, local people are still hampering efforts to control the disease.

Originally posted by stumason

I do, however, find it quite disturbing that even after the deaths of children and being made aware (wether for the first time or not) of the Virus, local people are still hampering efforts to control the disease.

It's an economic issue, and one of education and government credibility.

...In their minds, these people are not "hampering efforts to control the disease" - they are protecting their livelihoods and ability to feed their children.

The same dynamic occurs in developed nations with a few more safety nets.

International efforts tried to deal with these long recognized dynamics and the impacts they would have on 'plague control.' The last one was in October 2005. It failed like all the others before it.

Originally posted by soficrow
It's an economic issue, and one of education and government credibility.

...In their minds, these people are not "hampering efforts to control the disease" - they are protecting their livelihoods and ability to feed their children.

You know, I thought that at first too, sofi, but BBC says different. I don't really have time to dig up a link, if one exists, but BBC World News was reporting (via NPR) this morning on the situation in Turkey. I listened with great interest as the question was posed, "are residents whose birds are culled compensated for the loss of their birds"?

The answer was YES!!! The interviewee then went on to clarify that the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture is providing compensation for EACH bird confiscated. Finally, it was added (just to drive the point home) that because of this compensation, there was NO JUSTIFIABLE ECONOMIC REASON to hide their birds or refuse to cooperate.

Meanwhile, since it is often the children who tend these birds, which many families have in their back yards, it is the children who are becoming sick. This should also address an earlier poster's question about whether the fact that young children were the ones getting sick implied some sort of protection or immunity for adults. The clear answer is NO. It is simply the fact that children are the ones most frequently exposed in Turkey, and therefore, they are the ones most frequently contracting the illness.

Again, it sucks. Again, stupidity might kill 50 million of us.

I worked for the NHS as a Technical Support Officer, and I was very shocked at all the documents on preparations for HN51 I saw in so many offices around the hospital. The government have planned allot for this outbreak, more than people think, which scares the whoopsy out of me. Two things that rang a bell to me are 25-45 year bracket are better carriers of HN51 and Penicillin is very effective at preventing the virus.

Am 29

Originally posted by mfourl
I worked for the NHS as a Technical Support Officer, and I was very shocked at all the documents on preparations for HN51 I saw in so many offices around the hospital. The government have planned allot for this outbreak, more than people think, which scares the whoopsy out of me.

Are you at liberty to discuss this further? How long ago was this and can we have some examples of what "scares the whoopsy out of you?

QUESTION - For those with medical and techinical knowledge.
(or anyone else who wants to chime in)


The Ionic Breeze, the Quadra one I believe, has a UV lamp in
it that is supposed to kill bacteria and virus' in the air that it
has flow through it.

Isn't the Bird Flu a virus? Could this device kill the virus and
at least HELP somewhat? On a bigger scale ... if these devices
do help in the homes, couldn't something be done on a larger
scale in schools etc.??

I'm not saying to UV the world, but in places of high human traffic?

Or would that UV Lamp do no good at all with this?? Anyone??

Flyers fan,
with this h5n1 though even if this UV worked, well someone infected scratches their nose, then opens a door. The virus is transferred to the bottom of the handle, in shadow no uv light. You then open the door and then answer your mobile, or put glasses on... well then your infected!!
Assuming that h5n1 has mutated to easy person to person contact.

Regards

Elf

I agree, mfoutl. Are you at liberty to share more?

Also, how long ago was it that you worked there?

Thanks, in advance for your reply.


[edit on 9-1-2006 by loam]

Originally posted by mfourl
I worked for the NHS as a Technical Support Officer, and I was very shocked at all the documents on preparations for HN51 I saw in so many offices around the hospital. The government have planned allot for this outbreak, more than people think, which scares the whoopsy out of me. Two things that rang a bell to me are 25-45 year bracket are better carriers of HN51 and Penicillin is very effective at preventing the virus.

Hmmm where is FredT when we need him???? I vill u2 him with a link so we can perhaps get a confirmation from a well respected member of the ATS community

[edit on 9-1-2006 by Cynic]

Originally posted by mfourl
I The government have planned allot for this outbreak, more than people think, which scares the whoopsy out of me. Two things that rang a bell to me are 25-45 year bracket are better carriers of HN51 and Penicillin is very effective at preventing the virus.

Just a couple of things. Penicillin that good old stanby is total ineffective as an anti viral agent. Penicillin (and all of its variants) and other classes of antibiotics are only effective against bacteria.

In all of the time I have spent researching Avian Flu I have never come across any data that shows that 25-45 year olds were pronounced carriers of the disease.

Certainly people in that age bracket would be prime for survival of an H5N1 infection, given that the age people tend to have a fully mature immune system that has not yet been weakened by the raveges of time etc. The scary thing about H5N1 in the cases we have seen is that once aquired it seems that the mortality rate is high no matter what age group you fall into.

Yes the government has been planning as have many other countries. However, One of my close firends is an ID doctor (He was one of my groomsman at my wedding) and while people are being extra vigilant, nothing out of the ordinary is occuring. While we often attribute sinister motives to this type of government acctivity, this type of prepardness is what I want and I expect from my government

Originally posted by FredT

Originally posted by mfourl
I The government have planned allot for this outbreak, more than people think, which scares the whoopsy out of me. Two things that rang a bell to me are 25-45 year bracket are better carriers of HN51 and Penicillin is very effective at preventing the virus.

Just a couple of things. Penicillin that good old stanby is total ineffective as an anti viral agent. Penicillin (and all of its variants) and other classes of antibiotics are only effective against bacteria.

Tru Fred. ...BUT - H5N1 triggers an allergic immune response that makes the lungs wide open to bacterial infection. Maybe that's what mfourl is referring to?

In all of the time I have spent researching Avian Flu I have never come across any data that shows that 25-45 year olds were pronounced carriers of the disease.

Certainly people in that age bracket would be prime for survival of an H5N1 infection, given that the age people tend to have a fully mature immune system that has not yet been weakened by the raveges of time etc.

If they are most likely to survive - they may be carriers...

The scary thing about H5N1 in the cases we have seen is that once aquired it seems that the mortality rate is high no matter what age group you fall into.

...I don't think we really knwo. No one has been testing or monitoring - and we don't really know if people have sickened but survived. Plus, there have been cases where people have tested positive without getting sick at all.

Yes the government has been planning as have many other countries. ...While we often attribute sinister motives to this type of government acctivity, this type of prepardness is what I want and I expect from my government

I am totally PO'd that the ongoing warnings and recommendations for prevention programs were totally ignored.

...This type of preparedness is triage, nothing more.

Originally posted by FredT
In all of the time I have spent researching Avian Flu I have never come across any data that shows that 25-45 year olds were pronounced carriers of the disease.

Fred, I would bet this is what he is referring to. In pandemics, there is apparently a shift in mortality by age. Check PubMed for an article on this phenomenon.

A different pattern may emerge in a pandemic. The 1918-19 pandemic affected mainly healthy young adults and seemed to spare those at the extremes of life. In the USA, the mortality rate during the 1918 pandemic pandemic was around 2.5%. Similarly, in 1957, the brunt fell on schoolchildren and young adults.

www.globalsecurity.org...

Hope that helps.

I can't provide much more info than I already have, the info I provided above is from what I saw in plane view on a desk, in a document, and what I over heard from two Planning & Performance Directors talk about. The documents where very thick, from the Department of Health. I was only on contract and did'nt sign a Secrect Act, unlike the job I do now.

It just scared me, as like I said, I was Technical Support Officer so I had access to all areas, and saw these documents in a lot of offices around the Hospital. Which brought me to the conclusion that this is no joke, they are preparing.

For my familys protection I wanted to take a document to study but that is againts my nature.

The NHS preparation documents are publically available on line to anyone who wants to d/l them...


NHS Contingency Plan Scroll to the bottom of the page for the link to the PDF document.

UK Department of Health Flu Page

Draft Clinical Guidelines for Treatment of Flu Patients Again scroll to the bottom of the page for the link to the PDF file.

I think you won't find anywhere in these documents a proposal for penicillin (an anti bacterial) to treat a *viral* infection. Antibiotics may be used for treatment of opportunistic bacterial infections secondary to the viral infection.

Do you remember if they commented on how well they were being compensated?
I mean it's completely possible that a chicken that normally is worth $1 is getting them $.01 from the gov... technically that is compensated, but to the people with the chickens that wouldn't be worth it.

That just makes me curious, if it is good copensation, I'm sure there would be people jumping at the opportunity to just get them all culled and raise a new flock of birds ASAP.

Originally posted by Hamburglar

You know, I thought that at first too, sofi, but BBC says different. I don't really have time to dig up a link, if one exists, but BBC World News was reporting (via NPR) this morning on the situation in Turkey. I listened with great interest as the question was posed, "are residents whose birds are culled compensated for the loss of their birds"?

The answer was YES!!!