What will happen with N.Korea? (if anything)

What are the main scenarios regarding north korea? Will America ever invade? what would be the trigger for them to do so?

Thanks

Invasion is definately out of the question from now to the near future. Nothing big will happen. The North Koreans won't invade the South and they won't test their nuclear weapons, because they know that will lead to trouble. The North Koreans don't want to start a war, they want to scare the western world thinking they are willing to.

All North Korea wants is some aid and reassurance that the US won't invade them.

I agree with you to a degree K4rupt. But if things in NK get desperate enough, will their leadership sit idely by and let things get potentially worse inside their country. They risk losing their power through revolt, because if things get bad enough, the populace will most definately forget their fear of the secret police and Kim Jong Il and revolt. And if they feel that war is their only means of maintaining power, then I believe they will take that risk. This is just my opinion of course.

I think the NK situation will carry on just as it has done for years, lots of talk, lots of threats, yet no action.

I agree with a few others who posted about this in the past -> N. Korea will make their move against S. Korea only after the U.S. is heavily engaged against multiple Mid-East countries. Last but not least, but China will acquire Taiwan at about the same time (or rather the reverse, China THEN N. Korea). I think they're just biding their time at this point though. Stay tuned!

The best course of action would be to cut all aid off to North Korea. I cant fathom why Russia contines to trade with North korea its unlikely that Russian government will ever get the money it is owed. Surely Russia would gain more in econmic terms if they did trade with a unfired Korea.
Once aid is cut off the regime will fall like a stack of cards. It might pay to increase US troop levels in South Korea for a short time to deter any last throw of the dice from a crumbling regime.

Currently, Moscow has more financial dealings with Seoul than with Pyongyang. North Korea owes around $6 billion to Moscow by way of the debts it has to repay the former Soviet Union. Moscow hopes to recoup some of this money by helping North Korea modernise its industrial and engineering base, which the Soviet Union had helped build in the 1950s and the 1960s.

Link

Hmm interesting this. We had this discussion at work some time ago, and the general consensus was that the leader of the North Korean state is an unstable man who if provoked would quite happily press the button. He has a bunker mentality, you can bet your boots North Korea is riddled with massive underground bunkers and tunnels and heaven knows what else. He would be quite happy to sacrifice millions to save his own skin. Look at what happened int he past. Hitler with nuclear weapons makes my skin crawl, if he had them he would have nuked London and i beleive the V3 rocket would have reached New York. Saddam happily used nerve gas on his own people, he never lost sleep over it, so yes i do think North Korea will lash out.
However i think the chinese will be none too happy if North Korea did as the fallout would obviously affect China, so i suspect the Chinese may will invade North Korea and annex it. We would then really be looking at WW3. Anyhow i am not losing sleep over it until 2012 when the Mayans reckon the game is up ! But seriously folks if North Korea do lash out, God help us all.

Originally posted by xpert11
The best course of action would be to cut all aid off to North Korea.

The North Korean government clearly doesn't give a rats ass about what happens to their people, so that would just starve a few thousand North Koreans to begin with.

The lack of food, water and other needed supplies could lead to civil unrest, which would make the North Korean government desperate, as to what moves they will make to continue having control over the country.

During the peak of the watergate scandal, Nixon suggested that the US would use nukes in Vietnam, he was in a desperate situation.
But seeing as the NK government types are probably ten times more insane than Nixon, if such a situation of desperation were to come, I would consider it possible that North Korea could attack South Korea and/or Japan, with both conventional and possibly even nuclear strikes.

Or then they could bend over and comply with other countries demands. Which is also a likely scenario.

So it would be a bit like a game of nuclear roulette.

[edit on 29/12/2005 by SwearBear]

I figure that Bush in his last year in office, if he is'nt impeached first, will make some things up, or just alter things that realy happened to make them seem worse than they are, and use that as justification to invade N.Korea, hoping that the American people will allow a change in the amendment to allow him to remain president.
And than probably WW3.

SwearBear North Korea is going to fall at some point in the future so why not give the regime a push a speed up the process?
To prevent any crazy acts of war there must be sufficent deterrent in South Korea this may be politicaly unpopular but it is necessary . The North Korean regime gives most of its limted food supply to its military so I wonder how many people in need benfit from the aid that is given.

and i beleive the V3 rocket would have reached New York

That'll be the V4 surely? I bet that Kim will be shot by a foreign power.

Originally posted by iori_komei
I figure that Bush in his last year in office, if he is'nt impeached first, will make some things up, or just alter things that realy happened to make them seem worse than they are, and use that as justification to invade N.Korea, hoping that the American people will allow a change in the amendment to allow him to remain president.
And than probably WW3.

Be serious man and stay on topic. No one wants to hear any rhetoric at this point. I see that your trying to make statements to inflame rather than on topic statements that provoke thought. Do us all a favor and take it somewhere else.

Be serious man and stay on topic. No one wants to hear any rhetoric at this point. I see that your trying to make statements to inflame rather than on topic statements that provoke thought. Do us all a favor and take it somewhere else.

I am serious, I am on topic, and I am not trying to make statements to provoke others.


And you have no place saying no one wants to hear what I tink.


Forgive me if I am wrong, but did not the creator of this thread intend for us to say what we thought would/will happen?.


And this is the apropriate place for this, I will not take it elsewhere.


And for the record, I am not Anti-republica/right wing nor am I anti-Bush, I just do not like the dcisions he has made.

The scenario I created was one created using the available facts.


And I will thank you to, in the future, not be so insulting.

[edit on 12/29/2005 by iori_komei]

But what youre saying is absolutely unrealistic rhetoric and you know it. Dont try and play that game, you know as well as I do that North Korea is a serious threat. Why else would there be talks involving NK, SK, US, China, Japan, and Russia to stop them from continuing their nuke program. They all recognize the threat. Nothing needs to be made up. There is no way you can say with a straight face that Bush will make an amendment that will allow him to remain President, congress wouldnt allow it. That statement alone to me makes your intentions with that statement clear.

But what youre saying is absolutely unrealistic rhetoric and you know it.

It is not unrealistic, and I could go into a whole philosophical argument about how nothing is truly unrealistic, but that would be geeting away from the point.

Dont try and play that game, you know as well as I do that North Korea is a serious threat. Why else would there be talks involving NK, SK, US, China, Japan, and Russia to stop them from continuing their nuke program.

Firstly, what game are you talking about, I am not playing any game.

Secondly, I never said that N.Korea was not a threat, what I said, was that I thought/think that Bush will try and go in early, and hence find away to get enough of America to allow him to change the constitution.

There is no way you can say with a straight face that Bush will make an amendment that will allow him to remain President, congress wouldnt allow it. That statement alone to me makes your intentions with that statement clear

On the contrary, my face (unlike my sexuality) is quite straight, when saying that.
If enough people really wanted it, than yes he could.
And just what are these intentions?

Originally posted by iori_komei

But what youre saying is absolutely unrealistic rhetoric and you know it.

It is not unrealistic, and I could go into a whole philosophical argument about how nothing is truly unrealistic, but that would be geeting away from the point.

Dont try and play that game, you know as well as I do that North Korea is a serious threat. Why else would there be talks involving NK, SK, US, China, Japan, and Russia to stop them from continuing their nuke program.

Firstly, what game are you talking about, I am not playing any game.

Secondly, I never said that N.Korea was not a threat, what I said, was that I thought/think that Bush will try and go in early, and hence find away to get enough of America to allow him to change the constitution.

There is no way you can say with a straight face that Bush will make an amendment that will allow him to remain President, congress wouldnt allow it. That statement alone to me makes your intentions with that statement clear

On the contrary, my face (unlike my sexuality) is quite straight, when saying that.
If enough people really wanted it, than yes he could.
And just what are these intentions?

Ugggghhh, philosophy, if there isnt a subject that can give me more of a headache, too much contradiction. But it is true, that anything is potentially possible but then we get into the statistics of it(another headache).
But what I meant by unrealistic was the part about Bush doing what FDR did and extend his presidency, i forget what the act that allows this is called, maybe you can help me there.

Playing the game is a figure of speech(where I come from anyhow), it means running in circles because that is most likely what wed end up doing.
There is no need for Bush to go into NK early and if he did, there would be no disputing the reasons here(with the inhumane lives its citizens have, all due to their government, and continued stalling tactics with their nuke program, yeah, they dont have anything to hide )

But the extention of a Presidency has only happened once in our countries history and in either case it owuld have to be approoved by congress, which it wouldnt unless an insane emergency happened on a global scale involving the US very deeply. But here we could get into the philosophy and statistics of it all over again.

[edit on 12/30/2005 by ludaChris]

[edit on 12/30/2005 by ludaChris]

The S&P predicts North Korea will collapse because of economic failure sometime in the near future. So I see no reason to worry, we could defeat them fairly easily. 3-5 weeks according to the military, though I believe it would be 4-8 weeks. And South Korea is beefing up it's military and will soon be able to handle North Korea by themselves.

Originally posted by NWguy83
The S&P predicts North Korea will collapse because of economic failure sometime in the near future. So I see no reason to worry

Ahh thats everything to worry about. That will mean NK would be in desperate times. Like they say, desperate times means desperate measures.

I wouldn't be surprised if NK and China are waiting for the perfect timing to invade Taiwan and S. Korea while the US is busy in the Middle-East.

Heres wut I suggest: leave Taiwan alone. THe KMT party recently won the majority in the parliamental elections (but the presidential office is still being held by the joke DPP leader Chen Shiu Bien) The KMT is about to pass an anti-secession bill and the KMT hopes of eventually peacefully reuniting with the motherland. The PRC doesn't want to use force to bring back Taiwan under its wings and neither does the US want to get involved.

The point is: leave Taiwan and the PRC alone, they will figure things out. Trust me, no violence would occur even if the US left Taiwan. As long as the KMT party is live and kickin in Taiwan, eventual peaceful unification is definately possible.

As for NK, theres definate instability there. Anything could happen and it's not really up to anyone to make the decision. The NK leaders would do what they had to do only in SUPER DESPERATE situations. They know invading S. Korea would be the end of their regime so they won't try anything funny unless they know their regime would be ended anyways.




[edit on 31-12-2005 by k4rupt]