Northeast Snowbelt 2005 (Updated!)

For those of you unfamiliar with the Snow belt, its a change in the jet stream that causings cold air from canada to be pulled down from Alaska/Canada and into the United States. This cold air passing over the great lakes causes massive snowfall and deep january freezing.

Here's a picture:


The area highlighted with light Blue airbrush usually drops below freezing rather quickly, due to a mix of 'lake effect' snow, and the lakes freezing themselves.

It's a normal cycle, living in Ohio, I usually experience cold, harsh winters with a lot of snow fall.

But this year, something is different.

I'm noticing an odd early freeze this year. Since Thanksgiving, the entire lakeshore has been below 20 degrees. The snow storms and strong winds have been coming one after another since then. The Lake and rivers are already freezing over, and the lake effect snow has dumped over 27 inches in some places. And its not even christmas yet!

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CLEVELAND

www.weather.gov...

This storm has been happening for almost 3 weeks now.. so early in the year! Dumping an average of 4-10 inches of snow a day since.

Usually, we don't even start this cold of a winter until late January. These types of snowfall are usually common then. Once the cold has been pulled down over the states for so long, things get real cold and snowfall like this is common. But the worse the winter, the colder the temperatures drop. So I'm somewhat alarmed to think that if this current cold trend continues, that this January/Febuary we could experience a rather severely low temperature winter.

Generally, the temperatures in the Snow Belt in ohio are around 10 degree, with windchills bringing that down to the -20's. The longer the winter, the farther these temperatures drop. Every single winter.

And with this current winter of 2005, the temperatures have been sub 20 for 3 weeks, the lake is already freezing, and the rivers are rock solid (people ice fishing already in my area on 7 feet of frozen water), I'm somewhat bamboozled into why no one else has picked up on this deep sudden freeze yet.

This year is going to be bad. I'm no meteorologist. But every day, every winter, for 10 years, I have to work outside in that cold. And this year, the winter is being a beast so early in the game... this is entirely uncommon so early in the winter.

Take my word on this one, I've lived in the heart of the snow belt for 29 years, and this is very uncommon.

Anyone else in the snow belt wish to comment?

Why is this happening? Global warming.. laugh.. it's global freezing in Ohio.

Now that the very uncommon hurricane season is over with.. maybe we should be diverting our attention the the very uncommon snow belt freezing.



[edit on 12/12/2005 by QuietSoul]

[edit on 12/12/2005 by QuietSoul]

[edit on 12/12/2005 by QuietSoul]

Mod edit: updating title

[edit on 15-12-2005 by parrhesia]

My personal theory is that what we are experiencing (i'm in KY) is the worst of what winter will throw our way. Now, this again is just my theory, but I believe we are experiencing this weather earlier because we will experience Spring earlier. I think are our seasons have changed and have been changing for several years. It wouldn't surprise me if we begin seeing Spring like weather towards the end of January. I guess we'll see.

Howdy QuietSoul! Yeah, I know of which you speak. This is outlandishly early. Never in my 40 years on the planet have I witnessed a Cleveland winter start this early and persist this long. We have had snow cover now for nearly 3 straight weeks with temps well below freezing. Typically this weather does not arrive until late January into early February. As I am a weather buff, I keep very accurate daily weather logs to include high and low daily temps including windchill or heat indices, general windspeed and direction, barometric pressure and trends in the pressue (Rising/Falling), humidity, dew point (When applicable) and of course, precipitation.

Last year we had 6.25 inches of snow season-to-date and THAT was our SNOWIEST winter ever on record at 117.5 inches. So far this year I have recorded 22.75 inches of snow - almost a 400% increase. Additionally, temps have averaged a -17 departure from normal temps during December and -19 departure from last year's average month-to-date.

I have also noticed that the Spring and Fall seasons have become much shorter and condensed. It is not uncommon to see a 50 degree swing in temps in as little as 45 days - whereas such seasonal shifts normally take 60 to 90 days. For an example, simply look at last April where we had 10 inches of snow on April 23rd and temps of 31 degrees. By May 23rd (32 days) it was 78 degrees! A 41 degree shift in about a month - NOT normal!

Now, could this be a part of a normal weather pattern? Perhaps. Local weather has only been monitored and recorded for about 200 years here in NE Ohio. Europeans have noticed 1000 year weather trends from recorded history available to them. So it is possible that this is simply part of a prevalent weather pattern normal to this part of the globe. It should also be noted that "LAKE EFFECT SNOW" only regularly occurs in 4 parts of the globe - The Great Salt Lake in Utah, Off the Sea of Japan, The Great Rift Lakes of Africa and the Great Lakes of North America.

For more on Lake Effect Snow - what it is and how it occurs, visit: www.weather.com...
www-das.uwyo.edu...

I live in Burlington, Vermont, and we had an Indian Summer up here. Very warm temps into late October, very odd for here.

-- Boat

In Toronto its been both really warm and really cold since the official start of winter (right now it's really cold standing at -9c don't know what that is in f though)

We got more snow on the grownd then I remember there ever being there in December. We usually don't see these snowfalls till Jan. Nothing really serious about the snowfalls they still barely come to half a foot, but it doesn't bode well for this winter.

I remember one day last year in January(or FEB) we got a very warm day around 24c in the middle of winter it was like summer. I believe this is due to Climate Change, we are gonna se more and more erratic weather that the meterologists will have trouble predicting.

I live in North Carolina and we usually don't get snow where I'm at. I have, however, been keeping a track of all that snow ya'll have been getting QuietSoul and I can't help but think that ya'll are going to have the worse winter you've probably ever seen.

Hello all from Detroit!

Well this winter (well fall seeing as winter doesn't start till the 21 of dec) has been weird.

In the past 27 year's of liveing here i have never seen it this bad in a long time this soon.


So far i have recorded about 10 to 11 inches of snow here. Also we have had snow cover for about 2 1/2 to 3 weeks.

I also feel this winter is gonna be realy bad up here as well and with anoth 5+ inches on the way this week, thats gonna put us over the 1 foot mark very earily in the season.


Sorry about the spelling, i know it sucks.

Zintac

This is something I need to highlight here.

This is happening Live and I'm not sure why it's not getting much attention..

Look at this satelitte image.. I'll post a pic once the upload center is fixed.

www.nws.noaa.gov...


This storm is huge. During the winter we don't see many "red spots", a dark green spot means alot of snow.
I hope I'm not jumping the gun here, I'll do more research into this.
I'm seeing watches and warning all over the TV. And I'm thinking it's gonna be a big one.

This storm almost looks like a mini hurricane over land.. it's that big..

I know it's not a hurricane, but it's as big as one. If this storm grows, or persists at it's current rate, when it hits the snow belt (which it's already starting to do) we're going to have like 2-3 days of nothing but rain, freezing rain, sleet, and deep freeze in the snowbelt.

Again, like I stated in my original post, those of us who live in the snow belt, think back to when we've last had a storm that could be this crappy?

Every Late January, Early February. NEVER have we've seen a winter system setup this EARLY in the season. It's not even officially winter yet. And we've already managed to slam the temperature of the lake down to 33 degrees and freeze it in some places, freeze all the inland rivers, and freeze the ground by keeping 4 weeks of constant snow on it.

This happens every year, after about 2-3 months of cold weather. But never (or very rarely in the past 30 years), has it happen so early.

It's 1am right now, the storm is hudreds of miles away from me. But the warnings going acrossed the TV slowly showing this storm system approach me cues me into thinking this is a big deal. I hope we're prepared.

These posts are generally targeted to members that live in the NorthEast region of the USA. People generally outside these areas might have a hard time grasping at how cold and crappy it gets here in the winter unless they've lived here or spent some time here on vacation.

[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

Sorry if my posts seemed a little excited. Maybe I'm just reading into all this too much and I've made myself believe this is gonna be a really crappy off the wall winter.

Or maybe I'm onto something.. any feedback and serious discussion is welcomed.

Prove. Me. Wrong. .. please.

I don't think you're getting too excited. I just noticed the storm system is more powerful than I thought with a tornado watch being issued down along the Gulf of Mexico. It's freezing rain where I'm at here in South.

I'm not too surprised by this weather though. I read somewhere that the winters averaged below normal temperatures most of the time that we have had a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic. However I'm still hoping that the so called Greenhouse warming effect will moderate temperatures later in the winter. I can hope but reading that most winters have below normal temperatures after busy Atlantic hurricane seasons leads me to think it's going to be a cold winter. This weather and increased precipitation also seems to fit a discussion thread early in the year involving the flow of the Gulf stream slowing down. However I was just staying quiet until now wondering if we are going to have only 1 or 2 cold months and then an above average year temperature wise or if the climate is getting colder or warmer. I guess that's the weather for you, you just don't know for sure.

I am also curious if the weather in Asia and Europe is colder than normal or typical for this time of year. I was wondering if the weather here in North America is the abnormal weather or if the whole northern hemisphere is getting colder than normal. I'm not going to get too alarmed if someone tells me the weather is pretty typical in Asia and Europe.

[edit on 15-12-2005 by orionthehunter]

That's exactly what I'm so excited about. Every time we have a busy hurricane season, we have worse winters. But this past hurricane system was so busy, and so overwhelming (what was the final name count?).. it was much stronger then anticipated.. will the winter fallout be also, unanticipated?

Edit: Add

I just spent about an hour watching the Weather Channel and listened to what they're saying. According to what they're saying, this ice storm is gonna be huge in some areas.

The temps will start at 33-32 in most areas and once it begins to rain, it's going to drop to below 25 and stay there for the rest of the night. Insta-freeze. Hope it doesnt totter too long on the freezing point.


I'm quoting this right off the TV at 2am Eastern:

"I'm going to tell you right now, why the storm that's devoloping tonight are going to cause 'havoc' on the Northeast. This ice event is tapping into moisture from the tropic Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico.

This will be the "news maker" probably for the next week. Once the power goes out, it may not be hours, but days until you get it back.

They're calling for up to a half inch of ice.

Read this if you don't know what a half inch of ice can do:
www.davidbray.org...


[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

I hate to come off sounding cynical (ok, sometimes I do wear it like a badge of honor), but, this early snowfall and winter was a blessing for me this deer season! I got me a great 10 point buck this Dec 5, 2005, near Bloomfield, Iowa. (Needless to say, the snow made for a very visible blood trail to follow.)
I happen to love the snow anyways (maybe because I'm Cree Indian!) but I see nothing unusual with this season's weather pattern from Iowa. We haven't broken any significant records and I just feel this year is one of those early-starting winters we seem to get every few years or so. I lived in Maine when I was a youngster and I seem to remember having 7 feet of snow on the ground before Christmas one year ( I used to live on Loring Air Force Base in Aroostook County)

I don't think the sky is falling Chicken Little!

Yeah, I'm talking about the Northeast Snowbelt. Stretches from the Ohio Valley right up through New York and New England.

This is where the winters are always rough.. and this is where the cold weather is being pulled across.

Here's a factoid. New york has been below average temperature (and occasionally making new records) for 14 days now.

Flick on the Weather channel, they've been talking about this nonstop all night. This is gonna be ugly.

[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

My prayers QS. That is a very nasty looking storm!!

Be safe!!

Originally posted by whaaa
My prayers QS. That is a very nasty looking storm!!

Be safe!!

I myself might only get a small portion of this storm, maybe 6-12" of snow from what the Weatherman says. But from what I gather, the eastern states up to New York and New England are going to get the worst of this.

Either this weatherman has had way too much coffee and completely blowing the power of this storm out of purportion, or he's real serious about this getting nasty for them.

Edit: As far down as Atlanta, Georgia are already reporting ice on cars.

[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

Originally posted by QuietSoul
Sorry if my posts seemed a little excited. Maybe I'm just reading into all this too much and I've made myself believe this is gonna be a really crappy off the wall winter.

Or maybe I'm onto something.. any feedback and serious discussion is welcomed.

Prove. Me. Wrong. .. please.

Actually I do believe that you are right. This winter is going to be extremely bad.

As a fellow engineer and myself were driving to Opheim, Montana from Casper WY, to a rig close to that town, I was hearing in the radio that the temperature records have been broken in many places up here all the way to Yellowstone park.

So far although we have had really cold temperatures up here, it hasn't been that bad yet, or so I am told, but it does seem that it will be a damn cold and long winter.

Originally posted by Muaddib
So far although we have had really cold temperatures up here, it hasn't been that bad yet, or so I am told, but it does seem that it will be a damn cold and long winter.

That's exactly the greater topic of this thread. Most of the time, as winter progresses, it gets colder. As the ground and freezes, it stays frozen, and the temperatures drop lower.

Usually, a change in the jet stream will cause a few thaws along the line of the winter, and this change usually happens alot in the December/January months until the cold just pushes down and sticks around until late February..

The cold air pushing down from Canada mixed in with the moisture of the Pacific and Gulf seems to keep a constant spiral on the Ohio Valley and New England States. A jet of air pushes down over the NE states that pushes the cold air down toward Texas, and the warm air coming from the pacific pushes the cold air (now seemingly warmer) back into the Ohio Valley where it cools back down. Think of a huge imaginated hurricane of slow winds.

Whereas this year, the system, or imaginated hurricane, seems to have set itself up eerily early, and doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon!

The weird part, is if you look at the bigger image over the Pacific Ocean. The weather over the pacific is being pulled all the way up to Alaska instead of hitting the California coast as it usually does. The warm air is pushing the cold alaskan air right into the jet stream and into canada, and in turn pushing colder (then normal) air down into the US..

I'm curious if anyone in Canada is noticing a unusually cold winter from this effect? I'm a bit too overwhelmed in researching all this to even think about diving into Canadian weather patterns just yet.

Edit addition:

Here's a good picture of the Pacific Tropics being pushed towards Alaska


(Not captured, so may change as the event unfolds.)


If you look farther north, you'll see a huge push like phenomenon happening below Alaska..





[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

[edit on 12/15/2005 by QuietSoul]

In an effort to stay geographically germane to the thread topic, I uncovered this with a cursory search.

A mere 5 years ago December 2000 was the second coldest December in the Midwest in 106 years, with temperatures averaging 14.6 degrees F. Only December 1983 was colder, with temperatures averaging 13.9 degrees F," said Kenneth E. Kunkel, climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois.

While people are quick to enthusiastically agree with the perception that they've never seen it this cold it has, in fact, been colder.

Single seasons, or even several consecutive seasons, or unusually warm or cold conditions occur naturally from time to time. While the Midwest is experiencing abnormal conditions, there are usually other areas experiencing the opposite conditions. For example, temperatures on the West Coast in 2000 experienced above normal temperatures that December.

Originally posted by FEMA
In an effort to stay geographically germane to the thread topic, I uncovered this with a cursory search.

A mere 5 years ago December 2000 was the second coldest December in the Midwest in 106 years, with temperatures averaging 14.6 degrees F. Only December 1983 was colder, with temperatures averaging 13.9 degrees F," said Kenneth E. Kunkel, climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at the Illinois State Water Survey in Champaign, Illinois.

While people are quick to enthusiastically agree with the perception that they've never seen it this cold it has, in fact, been colder.

Yeah that's fact. But I've lived through both of those winters. And they never started quite like this. It's not even offically winter yet and the 'system' or snow belt is already in place. The "big freeze" has already happened. Now, it will just get colder.



I'm almost so confident about this that I'll bet you right here and now that this year will crush those average records. I hope I'm wrong

I have a feeling this storm, and the events I highlighted above, that's rolling in right now, will be the catalyst to this event.