Originally posted by Classified Info
But .........J. Kerry lost.
And don't forget that the current Governor of California is a Republican. I wouldn't chalk that state up to the Democrats just yet.
I think the point that Rant's been trying to make, like several times now, is that as mediocre a candidate as John Kerry is - Swift Boated, and
turned into a Viet Cong, baby killing, effete, gay marriage blessing snob - George Bush barely scraped by, effectively splitting half the country
along electoral lines.
113,000 Ohio votes gave the GOP the win.
Any Democratic condidate simply has to carry the states that a "Bad candidate" already carried, and gain one. Just one. Ohio is looking like the
most usual suspect, but Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are three more prime suspects - given Howard Dean's attempts to gain a blue foothold in the
region - the DNC's recently announced "Western Primary".
At least, this is the plan if a Social Conservative is nominated - and honestly, I'm not sure how someone like Guliani or McCain makes it out of the
primary. Moderates don't control the caucuses, nor the platform message. Condoleeza Rice would be a godsend, on a silver platter.
Furthermore, anyone from this administration has a giant albatross tied around their neck, because at 30% approval, nobody but the rightest of the
right wing supports this administration right now.
Biden is charismatic, but he honestly doesn't stand a chance against Hillary. He certainly doesn't have the money, what with all the free media
she'll be getting. She's a SWAT team of seasoned, loyal operatives. And some people have noticed this, but Hillary does what Kerry wouldn't...
She listens to advice
Kerry really was a flip flopper, and could never make up his mind. Hillary is taking advice early, and sticking to it - tenaciously. To me, that shows
a strategic mind at work taking calculated risks.
My guess? It will be a Hillary and Mark Warner ticket. Warner has an honest to god shot of carrying Virginia, and perhaps swaying votes in Missouri
and Indiana. She'll pick Barak Obama if Condi gets in the race - cynical, but true.
On the Republican side, I see a complete unknown taking the the GOP nomination. The Democratic Primary isn't even about the Presidential condidate,
it's about Vice President - with different candidates running flak and offering cover fire for Hillary, just to curry favor.
Nobody will want to attack too hard, because that burns the "Forever" type bridges that politics builds. Howard Dean will be playing ref behind the
scenes, because he wants a Democrat victory, or it means his own butt is on the line. Plus, he'll be winning points with the Old Guard, to ensure his
own job security.
I think Giuliani will pull a Ross Perot and dangle his feet in the water too long, before voters get tired of chasing the stick. He won't have the
grassroot support in Iowa and New Hampshire. His national poll numbers will be high, but those are over inflated by likely Democrat voters. But, those
likely democrat voters won't be able to help him early on. Plus, he'll get trounced for his support of Gay rights, and his pro-choice stance on
abortion. Plus, if things get really ugly, they'll dig up dirt on his past - and find stuff.
I think McCain will get stuck in a junkyard dog style primary fight with a yet unrecognized Republican. I think it will be close, but I think McCain
has burned too many bridges. Again, he has more mainstream support than he knows what to do with, but that won't help him against well funded, high
organized christian and pro-family groups. He'll win moderate states, but he'll just get decimated in the South, Utah, and Idaho
I mean, it's just gonna be a giant Republican free for all. Hair is gonna be on the walls - just a brutal struggle for control between the moderates
and Freepers - and whoever limps away victorious will have to immediatly head into round 2 against Hillary and Bill - on their game, and using
whatever ammunition and and dirt from the Republican primary to their own tactical advantage .
Come 2008, the Democratic Candidate goes into the race with a unified front, unlimited money, and a teflon skin against attacks. What can the right
say? She's a lesbian? Whitewater? She murdered Vince Foster? We've crossed the threshold on Hillary attacks, and now she's immune. And, imagine how
much damage Oprah could do. Traveling with her on the campaign trail. Getting daily status reports
The Republican candidate enters the race, already bruised, bloody and beaten up, having spent tens of out of pocket millions securing the nomination.
The GOP has been walking a tight rope act for years, and soon, they'll slip. He'll be too right for the moderates, or too moderate for the right.
And somewhere in there, He'll lose Ohio or New Mexico, or Nevada, or Colorado, or Iowa, or if Warner is still popular, Virginia.
1 state is all it takes, and that's the whole ball game right there.
P.S. Arnie in Cali just hired an openly gay, openly liberal democrat as his new Chief of Staff. Maria Shriver has taken over behind the scenes. I
wouldn't be surprised if you see him throwing his weight behind Hillary at some point.