NEWS: WHO: Flu Pandemic Inevitable

i have a co worker going back to his homeland of vietnam in dec. i really hope it doesnt decide to mutate around this time .

Ugh, just more fear-mongering...

We have had:

BSE (Mad cow disease), Hoove and Mouth disease, SARS and now Bird Flu...

What I heard was that birds they very soon when contacted with this disease and a human has to litterally be in DIRECT CONTACT with it to get a CHANCE of being infected by it.

If there ever will be a human to human infection it will be quarantined in no time in most countries, in these times a pandemic will simply not happen.

I'll start worrying if my claims are proven otherwise...

Originally posted by GrOuNd_ZeRo
Ugh, just more fear-mongering...

If there ever will be a human to human infection it will be quarantined in no time in most countries, in these times a pandemic will simply not happen.

H5N1 "bird" flu is zoonotic - that means it infects animals - it also jumps back and forth between humans and animals. Without modifications in its genetic struture.

What makes you think quarantining humans is going to do diddly squat to contain this or other zoonotics diseases?


.

Worst case scenerio would be a dog eating the corpse of a bird and then it MIGHT spread to a human.

It's not like you can contact it be sitting at home unless your cat or dog got in contact with something infected...

This might be a crisis but NOT a pandemic.

I think that Avian Flu might be a real problem. The reports I have seen and read all lead to a potential catastrophe.
That being said, wasn't it about a year ago that Mad Cow disease was the harbinger of death for mankind?
What are we to believe?

ThomasCrowne
Then, Crow, tyou are aware that when yo usay that I virus passes "easily from animal to animal", then what you are saying is that th evirus is zoonotic, and that because a virus is zoonotic does not mean that the virus passes to and from all animals easily; some not at all.

The reason H5N1 is a public health crisis is because it does jump species barriers - it's a type A influenza virus.

"Bird" Flu Overview:
"Viruses are masters of interspecies navigation. Mutating rapidly and often grabbing the genetic material of other viruses, they can jump from animals to humans with a quick flick of their DNA. Sometimes, as in West Nile fever, the transfer occurs through an intermediate host such as a mosquito. But viruses can also make the leap directly.

Since the 1980s, the list of diseases that have hitchhiked directly from animals to people has grown rapidly - hantavirus, SARS, monkeypox and, most recently, avian influenza, commonly called bird flu. With the exception of HIV/AIDS, perhaps none of these illnesses has more potential to create widespread harm than bird flu does. ...type A influenza infects both people and animals, including birds, pigs, horses, whales and seals."

CDC: Influenza type A viruses can infect people, birds, pigs, horses, seals, whales, and other animals, but wild birds are the natural hosts for these viruses.

Mayo Clinic: ...type A influenza infects both people and animals, including birds, pigs, horses, whales and seals.

Of greatest concern, as the WHO states: Evidence is mounting that, for at least some of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes circulating in bird populations, humans themselves can serve as the “mixing vessel”. ...Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread at live poultry markets and by migratory birds.

There is concern that humans could assume a role similar to swine and dometic quail by becoming the "vessel" for mixing avian and human influenza genes.

You are also aware that, while the virus is as it is now, that does not mean that it will make the jump this year or the next, if at all.

The "jump" already has been made TC - probably numerous times - and H5N1 does not need new genetic material to jump between species. That's why it's a crisis.

You are also aware that when the jumps are made, it is usual that the virus beomes less virulant.

Absolutely. That's why I think the real crisis is not the fatality rate. The real crisis is the chronic disease that occurs in infected survivors. Clearly, a less virulent form of H5N1 has been spreading around the world for the past 8 years - and probably is contributing to the chronic disease epidemic. See: Bird Flu and Beyond: Chronic Disease to Kill 400 Million; and Bird Flu, and the "Neglected Epidemic".

This also is why I think the trend in public health policy focuses on assisted suicide as a solution, not prevention. See: Bird Flu and Beyond: Assisted Suicide Instead of Prevention

intrepid

Originally posted by soficrow
VERY common knowledge. Hong Kong, 1997. All the poultry was killed, and the crisis was averted, but as the strain has reappeared, it obviously was not contained.

OK, it's been around 8 years. Can you tell me why I should worry NOW, NEXT YEAR? 2012? Ok, forgive the last one, Nostradamus may have predicted that one.

I'm glad you asked.

Industrial activity and other human actions have altered our world's chemistry and biology, and life's genetic structures. Since the 1980s, the list of diseases that have hitchhiked directly from animals to people has grown rapidly...

The critical point occurred in 1997 - this point would be called "Self-Organized Criticality" in complexity theory, and is the point that microbiologists and other scientists were warning us about for the past 50 years. ...Two long predicted events occurred - new bacteria and virus mutations appeared that bypass the immune system, and medical technology too:

1. H5N1 "bird" flu hit Hong Kong - it's claim to fame is that it resulted from 'recombination,' not the usual antigenic shift and drift, and it jumps species without requiring species-specific genetic material.

2. "At a press conference on May 23rd 1997 scientists finally acknowledged the arrival of the untreatable bacteria they'd feared for years. ...Today superbugs look triumphant. They are bacteria that resist our antibiotics. The drugs which have kept us safe for 50 years are beginning to fail. ...This is a serious situation. Over the last 5 years we've clearly seen a change in our ability to treat what should have been easily treatable infections because the bacteria have developed the ability of resisting the antibiotics. ...And the more antibiotics we use, the more resistant bacteria become. Every year more than 5 million people die from infections that don't respond to antibiotics."


Overall, the situation has worsened considerably over the past 8 years, on every microbial front - prevention strategies were not implemented; the "war on terrorism" became the hot budget priority; and health budgets were slashed to ribbons. Chronic diseases now are epidemic worldwide - and the preferred solution is eugenics and assisted suicide.

Hmmm. Do you think maybe it was the "War on Terror" that was created to hide the real crisis?


Q: Should you worry?

A: Only if your family is not part of the world's ruling economic elite, and you cannot trace your bloodline back 5,000 years.


.

I think that a big problem could be quarantine. For example, what if 3 people catch it and they get on a plane. They think its only a cold and they fly home. A day or two later and they show signs of a flu. The number of people that they could come in contact with will be numerous and they could infect many. By the time the infected are put into quarantine, many could be infected and pass it on. The biggest problem of all is that this isn't a virus that has been widely circulated through humans, and because of that, most people will have little to no immunity to this version of H5N1.

Plus directly from the World Health Organization website:

When compared with H5N1 viruses from 1997 and early 2004, H5N1 viruses now circulating are more lethal to experimentally infected mice and to ferrets (a mammalian model) and survive longer in the environment.

It's much more dangerous now than it was earlier.