NEWS: WHO: Flu Pandemic Inevitable

The deadly human influenza H5N1 strain of avian flu is deadly and inevitable. Once H5N1 begins human to human transmission, it will cause a global pandemic. The World Health Organization held a meeting of 600 health experts and planners in attempt to divise a global strategy to combat the deadly flu virus. 60 percent of countries have a pandemic preparedness plan but, it's only a piece of paper and people are not ready to put it into action.
A vaccine has not been developed yet since experts are unsure of what form the virus would take. Dr. David Nabarro, a senior WHO expert expects the death toll from the pandemic to be from 5 million and 150 million people. However, the World Health Organization spokesman said that the agency expects a death toll of 5.7 million is more reasonable.



I think that people need to take this pandemic seriously. However, everyone doesn't need to look at this as the next extinction. People that I've talked to think that this virus will wipe out a third of the population. This is the general view that they have and people need to realize that it won't be that extreme, although it will be pretty bad. Everyone just needs to keep an eye on the news and see how this develops and stay calm.

Related News Links:
edition.cnn.com
edition.cnn.com
abcnews.go.com
www.forbes.com

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World Bankers wring their hands over possible $800Bln loss to economy
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[edit on 7-11-2005 by cloudx]

Good find -- I saw this earlier today when I was online on a news feed. Of course I can't find that exact one but here is an interesting article on the various phases that WHO uses for pandemic alerts

Medical News Today

We are currently at level 3 of 6 different levels. What does level 3 mean ...

3 - PANDEMIC ALERT (We are currently at this stage)
NO OR VERY LIMITED HUMAN-TO-HUMAN TRANSMISSION

and what does that mean for this particular disease - -

The world is presently in phase 3: a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among humans.

For all the people out there who are thinking this is just hype -- WHO is taking this very seriously and I think it is a good idea to take it seriously also. Personally I was a Girl Scout and I was raised by parents who lived thru The Depression and both of those things have made me be the type of person who tries to be prepared for most things. I already have a plan in place for hurricanes as we live on an island and we do get hit by hurricanes so I have taken that plan and am expanding on it. I have been drying some foods that we love (fruit, various veggies etc)and use a lot so that in case the power goes out -- I have less stuff in the freezer to go bad or worry about. I'm also making sure we have some treats we enjoy in the house. I'm making sure that I have extras of things that you use all the time so I can limit exposure to stores etc. And I will be getting some card games, other games etc to use up time in case the power goes out and you can't get on the computer or watch tv. I have plenty of books that can be re-read.

And even though the Avian Flu isn't here the regular Flu seems to be getting started - so I am doing things like wiping the handle of the shopping cart with a Purell disenfectent wipe before I grab it -- it may not do much but I figure that every little bit will help. I'm also calling my Doctor again to see if we can get flu shots - they were in short supply here. That way if I get the flu I can figure it isn't the one I had the shot for at least.

Hey justme - I think those alerts are way obsolete. H5N1 passes easily from animal to animal and from animals to people, and is carried by birds - some of which fly 1500 miles per day. ...But we're only worried about human-to-human transmission?

Originally posted by soficrow
Hey justme - I think those alerts are way obsolete. H5N1 passes easily from animal to animal and from animals to people, and is carried by birds - some of which fly 1500 miles per day. ...But we're only worried about human-to-human transmission?

Are you saying that some birds can fly 62.5 miles/hr for 24 hours? Only in fiction imo.

A few days ago I was reading an article by a scientist who doesn't believe there will be a comparision between the Spanish Flu and this, because there aren't crowded trenches for such a mutation to take place as was during WWI. She figures that such virulant mutations don't allow for travel around the globe. Dead birds don't fly, as she said.

Originally posted by intrepid
Are you saying that some birds can fly 62.5 miles/hr for 24 hours? Only in fiction imo.

Factor in upper level windspeeds and it wouldn't be a problem. Birds do use wind to travel, waiting for favourable direction. I know the geese use the north wind in their migration south and so do the Monarch butterflies.

It's sometimes amazing, though, to see the gulls returning to water in the evenings when they're bucking 100 kph winds and still making admirable headway.


[edit on 7-11-2005 by masqua]

Originally posted by masqua
It's sometimes amazing, though, to see the gulls returning to water in the evenings when they're bucking 100 kpm winds and still making admirable headway.

I checked it out on the Net, an eagles diving speed is 75 mph. That's diving speed, not cruising speed, gravity needed. Unless the bird in question is coming from space there's NO way that a bird could maintain that velocity. 24 hrs remember. The only way a bird could make 1500 miles in 1 day is on the back of a truck, with more than 1 driver. Or one driver with a MAJOR coffee fix.

Originally posted by intrepid

Originally posted by soficrow
Hey justme - I think those alerts are way obsolete. H5N1 passes easily from animal to animal and from animals to people, and is carried by birds - some of which fly 1500 miles per day. ...But we're only worried about human-to-human transmission?

Are you saying that some birds can fly 62.5 miles/hr for 24 hours? Only in fiction imo.

Ooops. Would you buy typo?

Migration of Birds: Flight Speed and Rate of Migration

A sustained flight of 10 hours per day in still air would carry herons, hawks, crows, and smaller birds from 100 to 250 miles, while ducks and geese might travel as much as 400 to 500 miles in the same period.

Actually, I swear I saw a reference recently to a specific goose that flew 1500 miles in a single day. Did a quick Google, and couldn't find it. Will see if I filed the article on my system.


BUT - my point still stands.

H5N1 passes easily from animal to animal and from animals to people. It is carried by birds - which migrate.

Even if migrating ducks and geese only fly 400-500 miles per day, they still have been carrying H5N1 bird flu around the world for the past 8 years, since 1997. ...But we're only worried about human-to-human transmission?

Seems to me there's a lot more going on here.

Originally posted by Thomas Crowne

Dead birds don't fly,

Birds and people have been reported as asymptomatic carriers of H5N1 bird flu. ...I've posted the links here at ATS numerous times.

Originally posted by soficrow
Ooops. Would you buy typo?

Not really.

Actually, I swear I saw a reference recently to a specific goose that flew 1500 miles in a single day. Did a quick Google, and couldn't find it.

Sorry, not surprised.

BUT - my point still stands

.

Really? Are these facts from the same sources as before?

Seems to me there's a lot more going on here.

Or a lot less depending on a persons sources.

[edit on 7-11-2005 by intrepid]

Sorry, Crow, just passing on what a scientist-type said.
Now, you can say that you have read the other side of the story. Remember, I am like you, just passing on what the "scientists" say. I know as little as you do.

intrepid - go to the CDC if you don't remember all the references posted here. Although their info is heavily censored, even the CDC admits that H5N1 bird flu first appeared in 1997. The rest is pure logic. Birds migrate, remember. And it's been 8 years.

Originally posted by Thomas Crowne
Sorry, Crow, ...Now, you can say that you have read the other side of the story.

TC - that "other side of the story" has totally dominated the popular media coverage for 30 years. I am quite familiar with it. But thanks for sharing.

Remember, I am like you, just passing on what the "scientists" say. I know as little as you do.

TC - I don't know everything, but I have been on top of this one for a while, including the politics and molecular biology.

Originally posted by soficrow
intrepid - go to the CDC if you don't remember all the references posted here. Although their info is heavily censored, even the CDC admits that H5N1 bird flu first appeared in 1997. The rest is pure logic. Birds migrate, remember. And it's been 8 years.

So you're saying we've been dealing with this flu for 8 years already? I know birds migrate, your point also seems to be doing this. But it seems to move at your will(facts).

Originally posted by intrepid

Originally posted by soficrow
intrepid - go to the CDC if you don't remember all the references posted here. Although their info is heavily censored, even the CDC admits that H5N1 bird flu first appeared in 1997. The rest is pure logic. Birds migrate, remember. And it's been 8 years.

So you're saying we've been dealing with this flu for 8 years already?

VERY common knowledge. Hong Kong, 1997. All the poultry was killed, and the crisis was averted, but as the strain has reappeared, it obviously was not contained.


.

Then, Crow, tyou are aware that when yo usay that I virus passes "easily from animal to animal", then what you are saying is that th evirus is zoonotic, and that because a virus is zoonotic does not mean that the virus passes to and from all animals easily; some not at all.

You are also aware that, while the virus is as it is now, that does not mean that it will make the jump this year or the next, if at all. You are also aware that when the jumps are made, it is usual that the virus beomes less virulant. It is quite possible that the reason is was the scientist whose article I read has a point; quickly dying creatures do not pass on the disease unless the animals are packed in together. As the scientist said, the flu hasn't had such an opportunity to do that since WWI.

Originally posted by soficrow
VERY common knowledge. Hong Kong, 1997. All the poultry was killed, and the crisis was averted, but as the strain has reappeared, it obviously was not contained.

OK, it's been around 8 years. Can you tell me why I should worry NOW, NEXT YEAR? 2012? Ok, forgive the last one, Nostradamus may have predicted that one.

US has its share with the bird flu already, 1983–1984 epidemic in the United States of America, the H5N2 virus initially caused low mortality, but within six months became highly pathogenic, with a mortality approaching 90%. Control of the outbreak required destruction of more than 17 million birds at a cost of nearly US$ 65 million. During a 1999–2001 epidemic in Italy, the H7N1 virus, initially of low pathogenicity, mutated within 9 months to a highly pathogenic form. More than 13 million birds died or were destroyed.

After researching for a while I guess that the Pandemic is base on the believe that the scientific community Experts agree that another influenza pandemic is inevitable and possibly imminent.

They base their theories on the patterns of other pandemics that have occurred in the world and in the US.

This isn't just a scare. It's a very high possibilty that scientific and medical experts are agreeing on. The reason for this is because it is a new virus for humans, hasn't been widely circulated among people, and no one has an immunity to it. This flu strain is very aggressive and can primarly cause viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure. The World Health Organization believes that once human-to-human transmission has started, this flu strain will infect many, so that is the cause for concern.

Also are there any tips or plans that people would like to share? Something to keep in mind so that when it comes, everyone will be better prepared.

WHO:Avian Influenza Frequently Asked Questions

A Few Bird Facts:

Snow Geese: They can cruise at 40 miles per hour. Heading south they may fly 1500 miles nonstop. They mate for life.

Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge: Snow geese weigh 6-7 pounds. Most come from Northern Canada, and they fly up to 1500 miles non-stop, cruising at up to 40 miles per hour.

Winged Migration:
• "The whooper swan flies 1,800 miles, from the Far East to the Siberian tundra."
• "The bar-headed goose flies 1,500 miles, from India to the central Asian steppes."
• "The Canada goose flies 2,000 miles, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Circle."


"Researchers say evidence of the H5N1 pathogen in the geese is a big concern because of the migratory animals' ability to fly huge distances." ..." Principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997. ...News that the H5N1 viral strain is now being passed around wild geese makes avian flu even more of a global threat than it already is, the scientists say. "These birds can fly one thousand miles a day at maximum," explained Yi Guan, of the University of Hong Kong, China. "


More on H5N1 Flu:

...reports indicate that in addition to affecting chickens, ducks, swine, and human beings this strain may affect domestic cats, tigers, leopards, ferrets, eagles and falcons. Work is under way to determine the extent to which other wildlife and domestic species may be infected. It is believed that all birds can transmit avian influenza to some extent.

"H5N1 has laid waste to poultry stocks across wide swathes of Asia but it doesn't restrict itself to chickens. People, pigs, dogs, domestic cats, tigers and leopards -- the virus has surprised experts by showing it can infect far afield without acquiring the non-avian genetic material once thought to be necessary for it to jump species."

...Numerous industrial activities have contributed to the creation of new diseases. Bird flu is not the only threat, nor may it be the worst. Most of these new diseases are able to jump species barriers in ways never before possible.

The truth is out there - it's just hard to find sometimes.