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Saudi oil forecasts are doubted
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New York Times
WASHINGTON, Oct. 26 - Last spring, the White House publicly embraced plans by Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production capacity significantly. But privately, some officials and others advising the government are skeptical about some of those Saudi forecasts.
Little to Spare
The United States relies on a few producers to maintain enough spare capacity to keep prices and markets stable, even during war or disaster. As oil prices have climbed over the last few years amid surging demand and tight supplies, the Bush administration has looked to the Persian Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to pump extra oil.
But doubts about Saudi Arabia's assurances of how much it can expand capacity - and for how long - have been raised in a secret intelligence report and in a separate analysis by a leading government oil adviser, according to a federal government official and the oil expert.
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Hmm why am I not surprised. There haven't been any major new finds for decades, and over 50% of all oil wells have been used for more than 2 decades.
[edit on 10-27-2005 by Zion Mainframe]
There is imo no objective reason to doubt the Saudi officials claims when it come s to their oil reserves.
Here
some VERY prominent Saudi officials make some rather specific statements and Greenspan's comments on it:
"Greenspan said he found Naimi’s news “most interesting,” but during his luncheon speech the Fed chairman cautioned that in order for the United States to sustain economic growth it must increase importation of natural gas products as a hedge against rising energy prices.
“(We need a) massive expansion of liquefied natural gas shipping terminals and (must) develop new offshore re-gasification technologies,” said Greenspan, who also warned that the economic growth of China is driving up the global demand - and cost - for steel, coal, oil, and natural gas."
Here
only five months later we have Greenspan saying that the world is not running out of oil....
"On Friday, Greenspan added his voice to the chorus, noting oil prices adjusted for inflation were still not as high as they were in the early 1980s and that, no, the world is not "running out of oil."
The chairman concluded: "So far this year, the rise in the value of imported oil--essentially a tax on U.S. residents--has amounted to about three-quarters of one percent of gross domestic product. The effects were far larger in the crises of the 1970s. But, obviously, the risk of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move materially higher."
More material and links if you have any other or more doubts.
Stellar
Here
some VERY prominent Saudi officials make some rather specific statements and Greenspan's comments on it:
"Greenspan said he found Naimi’s news “most interesting,” but during his luncheon speech the Fed chairman cautioned that in order for the United States to sustain economic growth it must increase importation of natural gas products as a hedge against rising energy prices.
“(We need a) massive expansion of liquefied natural gas shipping terminals and (must) develop new offshore re-gasification technologies,” said Greenspan, who also warned that the economic growth of China is driving up the global demand - and cost - for steel, coal, oil, and natural gas."
Here
only five months later we have Greenspan saying that the world is not running out of oil....
"On Friday, Greenspan added his voice to the chorus, noting oil prices adjusted for inflation were still not as high as they were in the early 1980s and that, no, the world is not "running out of oil."
The chairman concluded: "So far this year, the rise in the value of imported oil--essentially a tax on U.S. residents--has amounted to about three-quarters of one percent of gross domestic product. The effects were far larger in the crises of the 1970s. But, obviously, the risk of more serious negative consequences would intensify if oil prices were to move materially higher."
More material and links if you have any other or more doubts.
Stellar
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