Tropical Depression 25: Future Alpha?

Advisory for Tropical Depression 25

Might want to keep an eye on this one. It appears to be currently south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The forecast (click on the 1-2-3 rule image) seem to show it building to hurricane strength, crossing between the Dominican Republic and Cuba, and drifting off into the Atlantic.

[edit on 22-10-2005 by Toxic Fox]

[edit on 22-10-2005 by Toxic Fox]

Not only that but Wilma and TD25 (possibly Alpha) will be riding side by side if not colliding

Hi All,

I just read about this formation on accuweather.com. Here are some tentative prediction maps from NHC and weather underground.

NHC




weatherunderground





[EDIT: Here is the accuweather announcement]

T'S ALMOST ALPHA; TD 25 FORMS
Posted: Saturday, October 22, 2005 at 11:21 AM EDT

by AccuWeather.com Sr. Meteorologist Henry Margusity

STATE COLLEGE, PA (AccuWeather.com) --
We are on the verge of the first ever named tropical storm "Alpha" in the Atlantic basin as tropical depression 25 has formed.


At 11:00 am EDT, tropical depression 25 formed 200 miles southwest of San Juan, PR. This is the 25th tropical depression of the season, and when the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm, it will become the 22nd named storm. AccuWeather.com Meteorologists are forecasting tropical depression 25 to become tropical storm Alpha by this evening. When that occurs, it will be the first time in the history of the Atlantic Basin that a storm was named Alpha.

[edit on 10/22/2005 by sylvrshadow]

Originally posted by Thatoneguy
Not only that but Wilma and TD25 (possibly Alpha) will be riding side by side if not colliding

Anyone knows what happens if they collide? Could that form the "perfect storm"?

Originally posted by svendutch

Originally posted by Thatoneguy
Not only that but Wilma and TD25 (possibly Alpha) will be riding side by side if not colliding

Anyone knows what happens if they collide? Could that form the "perfect storm"?

I doubt it. They would probably cancel each other out more then anything and disperse.

Here's the wind probability




If they wanted to save Alpha for later they could name it "Wilmalpha" instead

[edit on 22-10-2005 by Thatoneguy]

Hi All

Just wanted to post this latest update that the storm is now TS Alpha.

From NHC:

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

A 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE.
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM
C6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE
TWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005
HURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN
RECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND
THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING
ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.

ALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER
WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

Here is the only satalite photo that I could find that focused soley on Alpha. (From weather underground)

Hi All,

Here is the 8pm update from NHC:

8 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...ALPHA APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINES
OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF ALPHA TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATE TONIGHT
OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hi all,

Here is the 11pm update from NHC:

11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

HALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS
ALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR
ROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER
THAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD
HAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL
CIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS
IT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
WILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE
INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

ALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT
OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Here is the IR loop that shows Wilma and Alpha.

Hi All,

Here is a 2am update from NHC:

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ALPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CENTER OF ALPHA INLAND
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TURN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND
RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 70.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.