China Sends Armed Forces to Monitor North Korean Border

BEIJING, Sept. 15 Chinese armed forces have moved into new positions along the country's border with North Korea, charged with defending an 870-mile crossing that is often violated by hungry refugees from the isolated Communist state.

Chinese foreign ministry officials confirmed in a statement issued this afternoon that troops from the People's Liberation Army had replaced police along the border, though they did not confirm Hong Kong news reports that the move involved as many as 150,000 soldiers.
The move marks a subtle but significant change in relations between the two Communist states, which fought together against the United States in the Korean War and still have a mutual defense treaty.

Rest Of Story


I think this could cause an escalation which will only draw us further into the crisis.

Nah....they are simply trying to keep streams of refugees from crossing the border...this is meant to prevent China from having to care for these refugees, not to threaten the NK government....unfortunately....

you're probably right, but it still means that the situation in North Korea is probably going to get worse or so they're anticipating ... then again I guess that's not really news.

mutual defense treaty: China and North Korea?

Ouch. If anything happens with North Korea sucha s being attacked, preempive strikes..Maybe China will have to step up to the plate too...

A big war could be brewing.

Last time there were reports of Chinese activity near NK was in October of 1950.
This could be a number of "hidden" meanings or implications:

1) The Chinese do not want to suddenly host millions of starving North Korean visitors.

2) This is probably in preparation if Japan invades when NK targets Japan with missles. China might not want Japaneese troops on it's northern border again.

3)This is a significant move on China's part, but if you think this is to help North Korea in any way I've got an update for you: This ain't 1950.

Here is the situation. China is displacing 150k soldiers from a sedintary, garrison military force, sending them away from their support structure to a barren, unpopulated border. This is not something they do lightly, and their timing is suspect to say the least. Something has roused them from an otherwise stable life in garrison, and sent them rolling at great effort and expense towards a nominally friendly border.

So naturally, one wonders, 'Why bother?' There are two related reasons. They fear a huge influx of NK refugees, and they anticipate conflict. It's hard to imagine a scenario that has one and not the other.

Lets put the refugee issue aside for a moment and focus on the armed conflict. Implosion or explosion, the Chinese clearly feel that the DPRK is sliding into destruction, and they intend to be ready. But for what? To help them military, like back in '50? That is an option, but a senseless one. It would make an active enemy out of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and whoever valued trade with these three more than they feared China. This alone would annihilate their economy, and shatter their standing as a legitimate world power. They could forget about getting Taiwan back, and could look forward to cruise missiles slicing apart their force projection infrastructure. The internal pressure (read: riots and panci) would likely bring down the regime in short order.

All for a war they can't win? Sure, they did it before, and without nuclear weapons to back them up. That analogy, however, fails very quickly when viewed with a little perspective. Chairman Mao is long dead, as is the absolute power he wielded. Today's CCP doesn't have the level of control needed to force another million soldiers into the meat grinder. It was possible under Mao due to ignorance, wounded national pride, and a twisted cult of personality. The limp wristed beauracrats that fumble at the controls today know better than to try and follow in his footsteps, in peace or in war. Mao was a powerful, vicious, visionary emperor who didn't care an ounce about repercussions; today's rulers ingore the bottom line at their peril.

And the bottom line is this: China would reap no forseeable benefit by taking on every Pacific power there is to fall on the sword for Kim Jong Il. They would lose everything by even trying.

So what's their game?

Rest assured, it's not to help us. The refugee problem is a concern, but not their most serious concern. If North Korea is defeated and taken by the US/ROK forces, there will be a large American military presence within a few days drive from Beijing. That is not tolerable, yet in the event of war it is inevitable. Once the gloves come off, no amount of conventional power will stop the US/ROK forces from driving the KPA up to the banks of the Yalu. It's just a matter of time.

Unless...

China switches teams, in the grand tradition of our good mutual friend Joe. Stalin, that is. Old Joe managed to get half of Europe (and a large chunk of Korea, coincidentally enough) by getting on board with the winning team. At the outset of war, China could enter western North Korea, opposed or unopposed, and make their way to Pyongyang while the battle at the DMZ rages. The DPRK doesn't have the military resources to fend off a serious attack on two fronts, and they have all their forces pointed south. A solid Chinese assault could break in the back door, overthrow the government, send Kim into exile or oblivion, and assume control of the country. Rather than have to deal with a loose cannon, they could install a real puppet government with chains instead of strings. Although they would handle the 'physical security' of NK, we would naturally be invited to send aid so we could do 'our part'.

Is this a good option? Not for us. We'd still take the pounding at the DMZ, but we'd soon encounter 'friendly' forces not far from the starting line. It would be a devastating fight for a few miles of real estate. Same goes for South Korea. They'd take a pounding, and wouldn't have much to show for it. Plus, it would complicate our counterattack. After a week or two of carnage at the DMZ, Chinese troops riding to the rescue would look good even to our side. There would be incredible pressure to work with them, to end the bloodshed as soon as possible, even if it meant handing them the country. Also, our nuclear options would be limited if 'friendly' troops started appearing early on.

From North Korea's standpoint, it's a pretty good deal. For one thing, North Koreans believe China is their friend, and all other countries are their enemies. It is plausible that Chinese troops could arrive 'to help' without causing a panic. The presence of 'enemy' troops would cause terror and resistance. North Koreas are taught from the cradle that U.S. or ROK soldiers are literally demonic fiends, so in this respect even iron fisted Chinese invaders would be more comforting and understandable than friendly seeming foriegn devils.

The big winner would be China. To steal a phrase, they could keep the North Koreans in, the South Koreans down, and the U.S. out. North Korea could be gradually repaired and rehabilitated until it was possible for South to reunite with them. In the mean time, they would make South Korea reduce their U.S. presence as they reduced the PLA forces in the north. This would leave a newly reborn Korea nation free of U.S. control and badly weakened by reuinification.

Not a bad resolution to an otherwise unsolvable problem. China rides to the rescue, pulling the U.S./ ROK forces out of a quagmire at the DMZ, saves the region from nuclear fallout, quells a humanitarian disaster, helps Korea reunite, and all in time to calm Japan back into pacifism. Perfectly self serving, and perfectly legit. It's not as clean as Kim abdicating, but it makes the best of a bad situation.

The Chinese may stay on their side of the border, but I wouldn't count on it.

4) and the funniest
OCCURRENCE #1

The US sits down with China to talk about North Korea.

�It�s your problem, not ours,� we say.

�Fine,� says China, �so that means Taiwan is on the table.�

�No.�

�Then f*** you, it�s still your problem.�

As the Chinese prepare to leave the room the US says, �Fellas, Kim says he�s going to sell nuclear technology to anybody who can deliver hard cash. You�ve got Muslim separatist groups out west. If you aren�t careful, some day they�re going to put a North Korean nuke in a truck, park it a mile from party headquarters, and you�re going to wake up to a bright flash. There goes the Central Committee. There goes the Party. There goes China. Are you sure you want to play it this way? Maybe it�s time you took responsibility for your own back yard. You created and nurtured the sonofabitch. You fix it.�

The Chinese sit down again.

OCCURRENCE #2

Two factions in the Central Committee have it out.

The Old Men have a sentimental attachment to North Korea and see a victorious North Korea conquering South Korea and forcing US troops off the peninsula, thus bringing a united Korea into the Chinese sphere of influence.

The Young Dragons understand that the Elder Kim conned both Mao and Stalin into backing a dangerous and stupid act in 1950 that blew up in China�s face. "If you want to get Americans off the peninsula," they say, "then topple North Korea. Broker the unification of Korea. The German unification experience indicates that a united Korea would be unable to function as an economic competitor to China for a decade at least, maybe even a generation. Make sure the united Korea understands which side of the bowl its kim-chee has garlic on, bring them economically into the Chinese sphere of influence, and have them send the Americans home."

"But that means betraying and toppling a Fraternal Communist Power," say the Old Men in alarm.

"Aw, grow up," say the Young Dragons. "Korea is worth the price of a betrayal."

OCCURRENCE #3

The Central Committee goes to the Peoples� Liberation Army and asks the question, �What would it take to topple North Korea, occupy the country and put in a government that understands who�s boss?�

�Nuclear or non-nuclear?� asks the PLA.

�Non-nuclear.�

The PLA comes back and says, �We don�t have the forces to go non-nuclear. The whole society is militarized. Think "Sparta". We�d get our clocks cleaned the way we did when we invaded Vietnam back in 1979. And remember, those little bastards have their own nukes! We would have to use our nukes first.�

OCCURRENCE #4

The Russians phone and tell the Chinese, �Guys, if you use nukes on North Korea, the prevailing winds will send fallout over our turf. Your nukes are 30 years behind the times. We have state-of-the-art neutron bombs that can do the job with a minimum of fallout. If you�re serious about using nukes to fix the North Korean problem, give us the contract.�

The Chinese and Russians make sure the Younger Kim is aware of this bit of dialogue.

OCCURRENCE #5

The Chinese bitch-slap the Younger Kim by cutting off his oil for three days. �Technical problems,� the Chinese say to the world in a press release. �Nothing personal, strictly business,� they say to Kim. �Do us a favor, and stop f***ing with us.� But Kim doesn�t take the hint.

The Chinese cut off his oil a second time. Kim starts to listen and play ball but then starts up his usual BS. China�s patience is wearing thin.

OCCURRENCE #6

Go to the top of this thread/topic and read it. The enforcers have arrived.


Just some thoughts.....
regards
seekerof

[Edited on 16-9-2003 by Seekerof]

WOW, I hope your fingers have cooled since that one, Seekerof.
Well thought out and quite striking scenarios you lay out there. Let's all hope that it comes down to a peaceful one that we can all live with.

Seekerof Excellent!!! That postanswered alot of questions I had. Starting at about option three is where I think your really in the ball park with those statements.

Having found this article makes me think that, indeed, the Chinese may have something to hide in moving those troops to the N. Korean border. This isn't going unnoticed either....
Article:
"China denies troop build-up on borders"
Link:
news.xinhuanet.com...


"BEIJING, Sept. 16 (Xinhuanet) -- China on Tuesday denied it was building up troop numbers on its borders with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Myanmar.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said China was replacing its armed police with military troops along the two border areas in a reform of border administration.

Kong was responding at a regular press conference to reports that China replaced its armed police with military troops along the Sino-DPRK and Sino-Myanmar borders, and to journalists'questions on the timing and intent of the action.

He said replacement of the armed police, who originally defended the two borders, had begun early this month. In order to unify the land border administrations, China decided to replace the armed police with Chinese People's Liberation Army troops. The replacement, which had been a long time in preparation, was complete, Kong said. Enditem"

Questions that come to mind:

1) I wonder if China will decide that North Korea is a threat to world peace and invade ?

2)I'm wondering if a Chinese invasion would still result in Seoul being annihilated?

3)What WOULD we do if China decided that North Korea was a "terrorist state" and decided to invade ?


regards
seekerof







[Edited on 16-9-2003 by Seekerof]

Found this article also:
"Sino-Vietnamese War 1979"
Link:
www.onwar.com...

Relatively short article but has striking simularities.....

"Although communist China had backed North Vietnam in its struggle against South Vietnam and the United States, the Chinese and Vietnamese were traditional enemies; tensions between the two increased when Vietnam strengthened its ties with the Soviet Union, invaded Laos and Cambodia (Kampuchea) in late 1978, and expelled Chinese living in Vietnam. On February 17, 1979, some 120,000 well-equipped Chinese troops crossed the border into northern Vietnam in several places and seized control of several towns; they penetrated 25 miles into Vietnamese territory, encountering stiff resistance. Divisions from Vietnamese occupying forces in Cambodia arrived to reinforce the resistance, which was unable, however, to prevent the Chinese capture of Lang Son, a vital center in Vietnam's northern provinces, on March 3, 1979. About the same time, a separate Chinese force reached the coastal town of Quang Yen, some 100 miles from Hanoi, after several days of fierce fighting against Vietnamese units. Meanwhile, Vietnamese counteroffensives across the border into China's Yunnan province were repulsed. Declaring its punitive military operation against Vietnam a success, China began withdrawing its forces about March 6, 1979, and within two weeks they were all back on Chinese territory. Subsequently, there were many exchanges of fire along the Chinese-Vietnamese border and numerous talks to reach an accord, but no treaty or settlement was concluded."


Here's a thought also:
China's deployment of 150,000 troops to North Korean border may be attempt at taking over the country in a military coup aimed at reducing the WMD threat to Beijing...?

150K troops = 10% of active Chinese army. Armored divisions rolling in. Air bases being established.....


regards
seekerof

Thanks for all the great info Seekerof. As usual, ATS (and in this case you) have taught me much, yet again.

Myanmar, US ally.

NK, Chinese ally.

Reasons why the Troops have been changed from armed police to combat troops:

Myanmar: China will invade if US attacks NK.

NK: Chinese troops will rush for help if US invades.

These seem to me as logical options.

Also:

PLA of China.

They do have some 'enough good' hardware to fight a modern war.

Good work seekerof,

have to agree with you, China is not going down for NK.

either is Russia for that matter.

Funny how it goes these two weasels set up NK and now they will turn their back on them.

I think that NK is just about to collapse internally.

Soon winter is coming and it gets cold up there and people also get hungry, get it?

Lil Kim is sabre rattling as hard as he can to save himself and his little elfish friends but it can't last much longer.

I cant understand why it is that new administrations, feel the need to continue the policies of old. We need to leave south Korea, and rethink our policy with Cuba