What is Russia's Likely Response To Israeli Strikes on Iran?

Thanks TrueAmerican,

I was editing my post on previous page, when my connection broke, so the original post was not my intended one, and i had to restart everything before i could get back to ATS and do the edit.



[edit on 7-10-2005 by ThePunisher]

Originally posted by ThePunisher
In WW2 Russia looked to take land mass, so that is one thing they might probably do.

Russia could use Air Strikes on Iran as a cue to mobilise more forces around bordering regions.

And what land mass is it you think Russia might try to take? You think Russia would try to invade Israel? Or try to move in and take over Iraq? Not sure I quite understand the logic behind this.

Russia is deep in a contractual deal with Iran for the construction of at least one nuclear reactor at Bushehr, with a second deal pending, and further deals for up to 20 reactors more. Russia has hundreds of nuclear techs in Iran now. And so the question in the thread title is posed to guage how people think that Russia will react to an Israeli strike on one or more of these reactors in Iran, potentially killing many of the techs.

Many or most that have responded think that Russia will do nothing, and some even think that Russia will secretly bless the attacks for economic benefit. Not many have responded yet as to how they think China might react, which was a secondary question you can find in the first post of the thread.

Anyway, that's where this thread is at, and thanks for your response.

There is a military (and developing economic) alliance between Russia-China-India-Iran since 2000,there are lots of sources on the net on this subject.This includes a "nuclear shield" and pravda.ru reports that the Russians have recently modernized their shield
Also,in the past 20 years, Iran,Iraq,Syria,Saudi Arabia,Egypt and Lybia have developed a long-range missile(from the N Korean NonDong 1 type) ,called Shahab-3 ,which ,according to globalsecurity.org ,has a max range of 10000 km,putting all Europe and the eastern coast of USA into striking distance.
USA has modified its "strategy paper" into using nuclear weapons for all sorts of situations including:"preemptive strike" and "overwhelming conventional weapons use" ;the only obstacle is the NPT
There is also a highly speculative Bush plan ,dating from 2000 to nuke Iran and disarm all rogue nuclear nations:

1.9/11 is created ,iranians are involved ,but their involvment not disclosed
2.the poor iraqi connection with 9/11 and Afghanistan home for UBL is used to invade those countries ,wesetrn and eastern neighbours of Iran
3.Iran is declared into "noncompliance " with NPT,making using of strategic means possible under the international law
4.Israel bombs Bushers reactors,Iran. (hopefully) responds with WMD attacks
5.160000 american troops are in the area,possibly being subject to attack with WMDs by Iraniana,so the American public opinion is outraged ,Iran is nuked and its connections with 9/11 revealed
6.more outraged,all nations kiss Bush's rear side,world peace

You may see on informationclearinghouse.info a plan(made in 2001) to bomb 450 Iranian military facilities,which cannot be destroyed by conventional means,with strategic means
Because of the self-delusional nature of this plan ,there are two possible scenarios:
1.the bad one:
a.Israel destroys Bushehr's reactor,Iran responds with nuclear loads ,good-bye Israel
2.Bye-Bye Iran,the whole oil-reach region is now in the hands of USA,making controling the world easier
3.Some of us will die instantly ,others, less lucky ,irradiated by nuclear fallout in 4-6 months(a friend of mine,physician,has vividly described the effects of extreme radiation on human body)

2.the very bad one
a.everyone knows that US and Israel are poised to conquer the Middle East,so the Russian-Chinese-Indian alliance activates,good bye world

The simple truth is: now many nations have knowledge of this plan and have already put their strategic forces into highest state of alert.War has a life of its own.Also,all the Iranian missiles are located inside grouded ,immobile bunkers(no "second-strike" capability) that means: they have to strike Israel first or be annihilated
Already,in the days after the reveal by Boston Globe ,of the Israeli March attack,pres Ahmadinejad had several meetings with all the important players in the area.Reports suggest they are preparing a strike on the 24-26th of February on Israel(but this is yet unconfirmed,treat is like speculation)

You know what is the most frightening thing in all this?

That you guys talk as if you like war between USA/Israel and Russia/China/Iran to take place.

Instead of talking about how to stop the madness, all you talk about is weapon capabilities, strategy and military plans.

just wondering, if israel succeeds in taking out the Bushehr nuke plant (after it is fueled), what are the possible environmental effects of a nuclear fallout on arab gulf states?(UAE, Qatar, etc.) would the fallout, halt the flow of oil through hormuz strait, considering the distance between bushehr and the strait?


RESPECT

Russia will attempt to invade Israel but will be soundly beaten down, hundreds of thousand of Russian soldiers will be butchered in what the world will call "an act of God". It will be a "miracle" in the eyes of the world. Then soon China will invade massing in iraq first.

What a load a **** that was!!
No offence btw!

Ok here's the bottom line, if Israel attacks Iran:

1. If the attack is succesful,Russia will spend ALL its energy trying to stop Iran from retaliating. That Shahab-3B (unsure of test stage success ratio) can cause quite a few problems for Israel, if its on target.(Its range is also debatable though)

2. If the attack fails and/or Iran has live POWs, then Russia will help mediate their repatriation.

Russia will NOT attack Israel under any circumstances.And I hope Israel will not attack Iran. Osiraq was different. Very different.I've got a decent article on Osiraq.I've been meaning to start a thread on it for long but the time evades me!!!

Russia will attempt to invade Israel but will be soundly beaten down, hundreds of thousand of Russian soldiers will be butchered in what the world will call "an act of God". It will be a "miracle" in the eyes of the world. Then soon China will invade massing in iraq first.

Uh... yeah...

Russia invading Israel is about as likely as France invading Japan.
There is simply no reason for them to do it. They would have absolutely nothing to gain, and lots to lose (remember the Sampson Option?)

Russia might raise a ruckus in the UN, and would certainly offer material support to the Iranians (making a tidy profit in the process), but they are unlikely to take it any further than that. China might go further, after all they really want that Iranian oil, but I strongly doubt they would invade Israel even if they had any practical means of doing so, which they do not.

Originally posted by Caligulas

Already,in the days after the reveal by Boston Globe ,of the Israeli March attack,pres Ahmadinejad had several meetings with all the important players in the area.Reports suggest they are preparing a strike on the 24-26th of February on Israel(but this is yet unconfirmed,treat is like speculation)

I think on March 20, Iran switches from USD to the Euro.

Would that be around the day an attack on Iran is made? If so, it makes total sense for Iran to execute a pre-emptive strike on US occupied Iraq and/or Isreal a month before.

Not that the CIA and Pentagon wouldnt notice that.

But would that "slip" like 911 and Pearl Harbor. A military "opps" that maybe wasnt?

Or maybe around that time, there will be a horrendous attack on the US that surpasses 911. Maybe that will get "opps"ed as well.

At any rate, it looks like 2006 could be a real blast all the way around (the globe).

When a nuclear device is detonated i,it produces 3 effects:
1.thermo-nuclear ,on the smallest area
2.radiation
3.electro-magnetic pulse ,on the wider area

So,if someone will fire a nuclear missile into the heavens above Middle East,it will knock down all comunications through satellite and ,of course,the GPS,which is used for targeting by ballistic missiles

No more nuclear war!
This sounds a little bit extreme,as satellites are costly(roughly 1 billion each)

Heh.

What of Israel just flew around the arabian pens. and struck throught he gulf of Oman?

Really, think they havent planned for this?

So yes, an Israel attack on Iran is likely; but not much will happen as far as Russia and China are conserned other that pressuring the U.S. to close some of it bases in South Asia.

Originally posted by bodrul
what are the chances that Jordan would launch intercepters or launch SAM at incoming aircraft?

low, they are our ally and wont risk losing trade with us or israel, jordan uses US supplied weapons and imports most oil afterall.

Originally posted by rogue1

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
What do you think Russia's response will be if Israel strikes the Bushehr nuclear reactor? I would appreciate an insightful reply exploring the various dynamics of:

Simple, Russia will protest but will take no action. They'll just be content to make more money by rebuilding the reactor

Russian-Israeli relations, and the fact there there are over 1 million Russian jews of considerable intelligence in Israel. How could or would this affect Israel's decision to take out Bushehr?

Not one bit. It didn't affect their decison in 1981 to take out the Osirisk reactor adn teh Soviet Union was much more powerful back tehn.
What are you implying that Russia Jews are going to rise up against the Israeli state ? Not likely. I don't even think many Russian Jews would hold any allegiance to Russia over Israel whatsoever.

I'm a Russian Jew and I know who I'd help. Moscow has more skinheads than any other country in the world.

I think Russia may speak up, but inwardly wont care or perhaps even be pleased, a change of regeim in Iran coupled with there Reactor's being destroyed will economically benefit Russia as i imagine Russia will get the opportunity to build them again.

I agree with most of the replies in here about Russia...They could'nt respond even if they wanted to and its much easier to reap the profits with more weapons sales to Iran.

Also, Isreal could never trust Russia with a "warning" to clear out valuable Russian scientists before a strike, because Russia could alert the Iranians, therefore risking the success of the mission.

Alot of talk was bounced aound about the range of the Isreali F-16s and F-15s and it don't matter because America will provide inflight tanker support or a secret landing strip to land and refuel....its the only way for them to make it back home.

In fact I would'nt be surprised if American stealth aircraft participated in the opening strikes against Iranian air defenses....these bastards have had it coming since 1979.

What worries me more than Russia, is the worldwide Muslim reaction....most will blindly side with Iran and it will make the French riots look like Disneyland.

Anyhow, good thread.

Maximu§

What do you think the US and Israel would do, if Russia and/or Iran were to attack Israel, like bomb one of their nuclear reactors, military bases or something similar?

Would the US just sit back, rant a little bit, and then sell weapons to Israel and rebuild their reactor/military base/whatever, without any military response, like you claim Russia would do if the US and/or Israel were to bomb Irans nuclear reactor?

Originally posted by SwearBear
What do you think the US and Israel would do, if Russia and/or Iran were to attack Israel, like bomb one of their nuclear reactors, military bases or something similar?

Would the US just sit back, rant a little bit, and then sell weapons to Israel and rebuild their reactor/military base/whatever, without any military response, like you claim Russia would do if the US and/or Israel were to bomb Irans nuclear reactor?

It Israel can take the punishment of bombing a base or reactor, than the U.S. can pretty much sit back and just sell weapons and provide applause to the Israels' attack on Iran in retaliation, as long as Russia is not involved to the point of joining the attacks. But if Russia decides to get involved then the U.S. will just join as well. Since then in the past wars, the Soviets have not joined any of the Muslim nations in invading Israel to push them off to sea.

Originally posted by rogue1
Not one bit. It didn't affect their decison in 1981 to take out the Osirisk reactor adn teh Soviet Union was much more powerful back tehn.

Why would the Soviet Union have intervened then?
I don't think they had anykind of special relationship with Iraq? The Osirak reactor in Iraq was a French project, they built the reactor and sold Iraq the highly enriched uranium fuel.

The bombings on the Osirak reactor were a joint effort by Israel and Iran. The Iranian attack on the site in September of 1980 was not successful though.



[edit on 2/1/2006 by SwearBear]

Nuclear War against Iran. Read the article at www.globalresearch.ca...
and
Israel Iran nuclear balance at spacewar.com

I like the optimism of some of you,it's refreshing,however I cannot share it.

Joseph Stalin said:
"Each man represents a problem:no man,no problem!"
and
"The Death of one man is a tragedy,the death of millions is just a statistic"

You cannot apply Western economic thinking to Russia and China.These countries have seen their economic interests compromised by US actions in the Middle East.They prefere to arm Iran,North Korea than to lose these countries,the strategic positions in the regions and of course,oil and other resources.
Now,with Sharon incapacitated,the new leaders have to prove their ambitions by attacking Iran.Otherwise,Netanyahu will win the elections and will do exactly just that.