What is Russia's Likely Response To Israeli Strikes on Iran?

With the rhetoric heating up over Iran's nuclear weapons programs, Israel appears determined and has even warned the rest of the world that they should not be put in a position where they are forced to act unilaterally on Iran. However, if Israel does strike the nuclear reactor at Bushehr, which is due to be fueled soon, the ramifications of this could have global consequences.

One article even claims that this could start WW3. This article also claims that Russia has agreed to defend Iran militarily. Note also that the reactor would need to be struck before being fueled, or catastrophe could result due to radiation esposure. And this means that if Israel is going to do it, it will likely be sooner than later.

So my question is:
What do you think Russia's response will be if Israel strikes the Bushehr nuclear reactor? And should Israel give advance warning of the strike to help save some of the Russian scientist's lives?

And as a second question, how do you think China will react? Could the recent joint China/Russian military excercises have anticipated this problem in Iran?

[edit on 3-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]

pretty much nothing. the Russians are cash strapped and the military is in poor condition to attack from so far away with logistical problems, manpower shortage, etc. they may have fancy equipment, but only a few that could be decisive factor in military terms. no Russia sees wat nation they are dealing with and know they cant destroy Israel. they may be able to supply arms to Iran if Iran chooses to go to war but thats it. maybe able to do air strikes but Israel's air force is top notch so thats out of the question for it be embarrasing for a small nation to take down Russia's air force depending on how many Russia sends.

[edit on 3-10-2005 by deltaboy]

I also find it unlikely that China would jump into bed with Russia as that article claims.

Isreal will first have to seek permission to fly over saudi's airspace, Jordan's airspace, and a few muslim country airspace, which will be problematic no doubt

crusader

jordan then iraq and i doubt they will ask permission.

Originally posted by namehere
crusader

jordan then iraq and i doubt they will ask permission.

what are the chances that Jordan would launch intercepters or launch SAM at incoming aircraft?

Lol, nothing personal guys, but what are the chances we could keep this thread on topic? We already have Jordan launching missiles at Israeli aircraft, when the original question was:

What do you think Russia's response will be if Israel strikes the Bushehr nuclear reactor? I would appreciate an insightful reply exploring the various dynamics of:

Russian-Israeli relations, and the fact there there are over 1 million Russian jews of considerable intelligence in Israel. How could or would this affect Israel's decision to take out Bushehr?

Russian- Iranian relations, and the fact that for many years now the US has enticed Russia with many different economic incentives to drop their nuclear ties with Iran. And also the fact that the Russians have made an effort to publicly state that their invlovement is limited to peaceful nuclear use, and is contingent upon Iran remaining and abiding by the NPT.

Anyways, I'm seeking answers that incorporate and consider things like these... Thanks.

[edit on 3-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]

Originally posted by crusader
Isreal will first have to seek permission to fly over saudi's airspace, Jordan's airspace, and a few muslim country airspace, which will be problematic no doubt

Incorrect. Israel and Turkey have a very close military relationship and train together frequently, not to mention sharing some of the same regional strategic goals.
Any attack into Iran by Israel would come across the Turkish/Iranian boarder by passing any Arab countries.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
What do you think Russia's response will be if Israel strikes the Bushehr nuclear reactor? I would appreciate an insightful reply exploring the various dynamics of:

Simple, Russia will protest but will take no action. They'll just be content to make more money by rebuilding the reactor

Russian-Israeli relations, and the fact there there are over 1 million Russian jews of considerable intelligence in Israel. How could or would this affect Israel's decision to take out Bushehr?

Not one bit. It didn't affect their decison in 1981 to take out the Osirisk reactor adn teh Soviet Union was much more powerful back tehn.
What are you implying that Russia Jews are going to rise up against the Israeli state ? Not likely. I don't even think many Russian Jews would hold any allegiance to Russia over Israel whatsoever.

I believe this to be a key point:

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Russian- Iranian relations, and the fact that for many years now the US has enticed Russia with many different economic incentives to drop their nuclear ties with Iran.

Iran is placing tremendous faith (rolling the dice) with her allegiances. Although oil, natural gas and some money are dominant issues, it is in fact this is really all Iran has to offer. Iran does not see nor comprehend that she is being used.

The Russians can no longer afford their cold war Middle East policies and align states through incentives. Rather now, she (and China) is more in tune on aiding to incite proxy wars as a means to keep the general region destabilized and both are positioned as direct profiteers. Russia keeps her options open and sits in the 'cat bird seat'.

Openly, Russia would condemn any attacks by Israel and silently reap the diplomatic, political and financial rewards while watching her influence work to her favor. Iran is “rolling the dice” while Russia and China are playing a talented game of Chess watching the world react to many complicated facets in a place Russia knows all to well to be a quagmire.

.

Originally posted by rogue1
Simple, Russia will protest but will take no action. They'll just be content to make more money by rebuilding the reactor...

Even if many Russian techs are killed with no advance warning to them, you think Russia will take no action? I'm not so sure, especially when Russia has resisted every possible attempt by the US for years to lure them out of Iranian nuclear projects. They clearly mean business about staying involved with the project.

The US, although displeased with Russia's involvement, appeared to stomach it as long as the IAEA could keep tabs on it. But with reports of high level Russian corruption during key early phases of the construction at Bushehr, I'm probably not the only one wondering what additional secrets may have been imparted to Iran under the table. Combine this with Iran's refusal to allow access to certain sites, and it becomes clearer to me why there is such distrust and suspicion over their programs. Maybe there is more at play here than the huge financial investments?

It didn't affect their decison in 1981 to take out the Osirisk reactor adn teh Soviet Union was much more powerful back tehn.

Just for the record, Osirak was a French-built reactor. So I don't think that point applies.

What are you implying that Russia Jews are going to rise up against the Israeli state ? Not likely. I don't even think many Russian Jews would hold any allegiance to Russia over Israel whatsoever.

While I am not implying that they would rise up against Israel from inside, I am implying that they will likely voice serious opposition. This article might help explain why I feel that way.

from article:
Prague, 28 April 2005 (RFE/RL) -- Russian-speakers now wield great influence in all aspects of Israeli life -- from culture to science to business.

"Relations between our two countries have, indeed, been developing pretty well in recent years," Russian President Vladimir Putin said today in Israel. "It would have been hard to imagine just a short time ago that the Russian head of state would visit Israel on an official visit."

As Putin noted, his visit to Israel marks a major turning point. But many of his former compatriots long ago became an integral part of Israeli society.

Today’s Israel is a country where nearly every fifth citizen is a Russian-speaker, thanks to a huge inflow of immigrants who have come from Russia and other former Soviet republics in the past 15 years.

Their influence is felt everywhere, especially in culture and science, as David Horovitz, editor in chief of the “Jerusalem Post” told RFE/RL.

In closing however, I am of the the opinion that an attack from Isreal on Iran is highly unlikely in the first place. It's just not feasible, and I will leave you with THIS article as to why.

So, did I answer my own question? Almost. Nothing is certain with all this, and despite all the reasons that very good last article points out why an Israeli attack on Iran is unfeasable, if the US and Israel REALLY want to do it, they likely can using diversion tactics in Jordan airspace allowing a fleet of planes to get through, as an example. Another thing that is increasingly clear is that if they are going to do it, the reactor at Bushehr will not be the only target.

As to Russia's reaction to such a feat, I tend to agree with the posters here that they will likely not respond militarily, and especially if they are given advance secret warning of the attack so they can get their 300 or so techs out of there unharmed. That and the fact that Russia's top level officials are increasingly wary themselves over Iran's intentions, and are insisting that Iran comply with the IAEA to maintain the sanctity of their nuclear agreements with Iran. The ball is really in Iran's court as usual, but impatience is running near the point of no return for them to hit it back correctly.

ATS Related:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 4-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]

What do you think Russia's response will be if Israel strikes the Bushehr nuclear reactor?

Anything short of a military response.

And should Israel give advance warning of the strike to help save some of the Russian scientist's lives?

In all honesty yes, the russians aren't doing anything illegal, they could notify them and then do the attack without too much of a difference. Besides, they'll clearly tell the US what they are going to do and how they are going to do it, and the US might very well tell the Russians anyway.


The Russians aren't going to attack israel even if their scientists are killed in the process, because the Russians aren't going to engage in global thermonuclear war with the US over a couple of people.

crusader and a few muslim country airspace, which will be problematic no doubt

They didn't need anyone's permission to attack iraq no?

Actually, the current situation presents something of a problem. To get to iraq, the yehudis had to fly over countries that were of no geopolitical consequence to them or anyway (whats jordan gonna do, invade again? get their whole country occupied by the israelis? Gosh, that'd be pretty ironic for the palestinians who ran to jordan for safety no?). But to get to iran, they'd have to fly over Iraq. They can't fly over iraq without permission, and the Iraqi government can't give them permission. So I don't know who the israelis are kidding, unless they can fly around iraq.

Cheesy map showing some of the routes to the plants in Blue


Crossing over syrian space might be different. If they do that, then the russians might be able to fight against the yehudis by proxy, ie keeping them supplied. In a war like that, the US might stand to the side, or also supply the yehudis with more weapons.

Indeed, that'd sort of kill two birds with one stone, and not require any direct actions by the US. This would be a good justification for the support that the US has given israel all these years.

[edit on 4-10-2005 by Nygdan]

As far as the article is concerned, the problems it mentions are apparently mostly political, and are concerned with getting countries to agree to the use of their airspace, but, I have to ask, why would they bother to ask jordan or saudi to do so? I think that the yehudis are still at war with the saudis no, but I think that they have a peace treaty with Jordan? Iraq is the big one tho, they can't cross without detection by the sophisticated US equipment there, and therefore can't cross without US knowledge, and thus, implicitly, the knowledge and apporval of the Iraqi government. That would destabilize iraq tremendously.

Although, isn't it possible that the yehudis have stealth bombers? They coudl, plausibly, use them to cross without even US knowledge no?

[edit on 4-10-2005 by Nygdan]

Nygdan, thanks for that map. It really helps brings things into perspective. I wonder why even going through Jordan is necessary, when Israel could just fly to their southern border and go right around Jordan to the south through Saudi Arabia.

How would Saudi Arabia react? I really don't know, and this is a learning process for me. Help?

They can always nuke israeli, or sell a nuke to tran to nuke israeli, either way israeli sooner or later will get nuked...

I dont think they would do anything at all militarily. As at least one poster said they need the money. Even with all Irans oil, the USA represents more potential income to Russia than Iran does. And if Russia takes issue with Israel, they take issue with Israels allies (USA).

I dont think it would become a military issue for Russia at all, just a financial one.

Russia can do lots w/o doing anything directly actually:

1. They can put lots of missiles in Iran's pockets that will add to Iran's already formidable arsenal, and Iran can easily level a few Israeli cities with these conventional warheads...

Israel will not able able to do much to stop this, although I don't know how good its Arrow MD along with the PAC 2/3 are..

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
How would Saudi Arabia react? I really don't know, and this is a learning process for me. Help?

Unfortunately, and rather surprisingly, the flight path that they took to hit the iraqi plant back in the day isn't even known. That means that either whoever they flew over agreed to it in secret, or that whoever they flew over couldn't detect it. So the reaction is a bit of a mystery in some respects.

Syria is a close ally of Russia tho, whereas Iran is merely more of a business partner, so I'd look for a russian response to be coordinated with Syria.


Here's one possiblitiy, the yehudis fly over jordan and saudi w/o permission but avoid iraq and hit iran. The Syrians then declare war (well, of course, they are already in a state of war) and completely occupy lebanon, perhaps even annexing it, with Russian support on the security council and via supplying it with military hardware.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
With the rhetoric heating up over Iran's nuclear weapons programs, Israel appears determined and has even warned the rest of the world that they should not be put in a position where they are forced to act unilaterally on Iran. However, if Israel does strike the nuclear reactor at Bushehr, which is due to be fueled soon, the ramifications of this could have global consequences.

One article even claims that this could start WW3. This article also claims that Russia has agreed to defend Iran militarily. Note also that the reactor would need to be struck before being fueled, or catastrophe could result due to radiation esposure. And this means that if Israel is going to do it, it will likely be sooner than later.

So my question is:
What do you think Russia's response will be if Israel strikes the Bushehr nuclear reactor? And should Israel give advance warning of the strike to help save some of the Russian scientist's lives?

And as a second question, how do you think China will react? Could the recent joint China/Russian military excercises have anticipated this problem in Iran?

[edit on 3-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]

I think russia will send a hurricane towards boston or NYC

I think russia will send a hurricane towards boston or NYC

With the water temperature near Boston and NYC it's almost impossible to have a major hurricane hit there. And don't even bother me with the weather control BS

[edit on 4-10-2005 by WestPoint23]

Originally posted by Nygdan
Unfortunately, and rather surprisingly, the flight path that they took to hit the iraqi plant back in the day isn't even known. That means that either whoever they flew over agreed to it in secret, or that whoever they flew over couldn't detect it. So the reaction is a bit of a mystery in some respects.

Yes, I have read that too. I thought I'd point out this article from DEBKAfile back in 2001 titled Evolution of Secret US-EU-Saudi-Israel Understanding. Now granted, this deals more with the Palestinian issue, but still, it might lend a little credence to the idea that Israel did just that in 1981 and flew from it's southern tip around Jordan to the south and through Saudi Arabia straight to the Osirak reactor near Baghdad...With the Saudi's secret knowledge, of course. If so, could this have set somewhat of a precedent for future things to come such as this? Especially with the US hounding Saudi for use of their airspace?

Here's one possiblitiy, the yehudis fly over jordan and saudi w/o permission but avoid iraq and hit iran.

Feasable maybe, but wouldn't it make more sense just to fly straight through Saudi with their secret knowledge, again around Jordan to the south, through Saudi all the way to Bushehr? That's a pretty straight shot once they clear Jordan, and note that Bushehr is sitting dead on the Persian Gulf. Only country Israel has to clear is Saudi Arabia in this case. To make this happen though, clearly the US would have to put intense pressure on Saudi Arabia. Or would they? Aha, off to explore Saudi-Israeli relations!