Hurricane Stan ( More Danger For Gulf )

Originally posted by djohnsto77
I wonder if Stan could cross Mexico and redevelop as a Pacific storm, it kind of looks possible from the current track.

Looks like more a possibility all the time...amazing amount of energy.





Flooding is going to be phenomenal.

Hurricane Stan Moves Across Mexico, Spawns Storms That Kill More Than 65 in Central America

Mexico's Veracruz state: 38,000 people abandoned their homes statewide, heading for thousands of shelters set up all along the coast and further inland.

Mexico's Chiapas state:a river overflowed its banks and roared through the city of Tapachula. 600 families had been evacuated from homes around Tapachula, near the Guatemalan border.

El Slavador: 49 people had been killed during two days of flooding.

Costa Rica: a 36-year-old woman was asleep early Tuesday when her home was buried by a landslide, killing her.

Four deaths were reported in Honduras and three in Guatemala.

Five exploratory oil platforms also were evacuated Monday, but so far the storm hadn't affected the company's production of 3.4 million barrels a day of crude oil


[edit on 4-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Several of the tracking models now show the possibility of Stan returning to the Gulf:





How probable is this?

Stan just will not go away. Here is the latest infrared satellite imagery from Underground Weather This one updates.



The 11 PM Advisory From NOAA is a very strange one. They have not give up on Stan Yet.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE
STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE
REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS
BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT
THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS
OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Originally posted by Harry55
The 11 PM Advisory From is a very strange one. They have not give up on Stan Yet.

Yeah Harry, this one is an atypical storm. Considering the -90C cloud tops last night, I don't recall having seen such intense convection over the Yucatan before.

Looking at the sats: convection is firing up in the Pacific side, which might lead me to believe it will keep heading west, but it's kind of stalled out and maybe even turning North (scratches head).

There's the possibility Stan make develop into two storms, one in the Gulf and one in the Pacific....long shot, but global models are trending that way.








Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Stan's remains may re-organize and form of a new tropical storm over the Pacific, which could move northwest and threaten Baja later in the week. The NOGAPS and GFDL models predict that Stan's remains will linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough to result in the formation of a new tropical storm there by the weekend. All this will depend on Stan's track; it is very unlikely we would get a new storm in both ocean basins.
www.wunderground.com...

[edit on 5-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Latest enhanced infrared sattelite from Accu Weather shows very cold cloud tops from Stan in the eastern Pacific . We will still have to watch this to see what developes as the night goes on.

Central America, Mexico hit by mudslides; 117 dead

A man uses a bucket to remove water from his home at a neighborhood in Veracruz port, Mexico October 5, 2005. REUTERS/Daniel Aguilar

The story here Reuters

From what I understand Stan got broken up a bit, with a main blob in the Pacific now and another blob in the Gulf heading to Florida. And now there is a possibility of Gulf Stan who would be named Vince if it develops joining up with the remnants of Tammy.

this is surely one hurricane season for the record books and study opportunity for meteorologists for years to come

5 AM EDT Update From NOAA

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINING VORTICITY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.

After viewing latest sattelite imagery it appears to me this is happening. What a strange storm stan has been.