Hurricane Stan ( More Danger For Gulf )

It's been upgraded:

TROPICAL STORM STAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[edit on 10/2/2005 by djohnsto77]

Thanks djohnsto77, I was away for a while. I thought it would happen after watching the sattelite imagery.
This sattelite updates and is the latest imagery of Stan.



Mod would you please change subject to Tropical Storm Stan. Thanks



[edit on 2-10-2005 by Harry55]

Originally posted by sdrumrunner
I've posted a thread in the Peak Oil forum discussing the potential impact of TD20 to Gulf oil supply, as the Bay of Campeche is resposnible for over 2/3 of Mexico's crude production.

Since Stan is only a weak TS and will emerge with even less force,
Petróleos Mexicanos' hasn't much to worry about.

Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 10/01/2005 21:43
0% across the board, emerging with 28mph winds means little threat.
hurricane.methaz.org...
___________________________________

Remember hurricane Emily this year?




Hurricane EMILY (11-21 JUL)
Storm - Max Winds: 135 Min Pres: 929 Category: 4

Mexico’s Pemex resumes full production after Emily

•The storm shut down 2.95 million barrels of day of crude oil as well as 1.87 million bpd of exports, the bulk of them to the United States.

•Pemex typically produces about 3.4 million bpd of crude, about 80 percent of it in the Campeche Sound in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

•Hurricane Emily also shut down output of 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, but Pemex said that was also back up on Friday.

•Pemex said its inspectors found no storm damage to its platforms and facilities for storm damage on Friday, although 36 drilling teams and 10 collecting stations remained out of action in the northern Gulf.
___________________________________

Stan isn't going to be anywhere near an Emily, and more a
rain event blessing for Mexican vineyards and olive orchards.



Be lucky if Stan makes a hurricane before it's 2nd landfall,
the jungle is really chewing him down.



[edit on 2-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

I wonder if Stan could cross Mexico and redevelop as a Pacific storm, it kind of looks possible from the current track:

Originally posted by djohnsto77
I wonder if Stan could cross Mexico and redevelop as a Pacific storm, it kind of looks possible from the current track:

Stan has to make it across the Sierra Madres and that's a rare feat and would say impossible for such a little storm..



A Mitch type of hurricane might do it, but Mitch was one of the most powerful tropical cyclones ever observed and killed over 18,000.

www.atmos.umd.edu...

8 AM EST Discusion From Accu Weather
Tropical Storm Stan Strikes the Yucatan Peninsula
As of 7:00 a.m. CDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Stan was located at 19.7 north, 87.7 west, about 35 miles south-southwest of Tulum, Mexico. Stan was moving west-northwest at 6 mph.Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, and the minimum pressure is 1003 millibars, or 29.62 inches.
Stan will track over the northern Yucatan Peninsula on today and weaken to a tropical depression over land. Still, heavy and locally flooding rainfall will fall throughout the northern part of the peninsula. Stan will then move into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight. After that, Stan should gradually intensify and tracks westward toward northeastern Mexico, and it could become a hurricane before making landfall. The chance of Stan affecting southern Texas appears to be small at this point, but cannot be ruled out. Interests along the southern Texas and northeastern Mexican coastlines should monitor the progress of this storm carefully.

2 PM Update From Accu Weather

Tropical Storm Stan Moving Across the Yucatan Peninsula

As of 2:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Stan was located at 20.2 north, 88.7 west, about 80 miles southwest of Merida, Mexico. Stan was moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, and the minimum pressure was estimated to be 1004 millibars, or 29.65 inches. At 2:00 pm EDT, all watches and warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula were discontinued.
Stan will continue to track over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and evening while weakening to a tropical depression over land. Still, heavy and locally flooding rainfall will fall throughout the northern part of the peninsula. Stan will then move into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico overnight. After that, Stan should gradually intensify and track westward toward northeastern Mexico, and it could become a hurricane before making landfall. The chance of Stan affecting southern Texas appears to be small at this point, but cannot be ruled out. Interests along the southern Texas and northeastern Mexican coastlines should monitor the progress of this storm carefully.

Fly in the oinment time, will Stan turn North?
Stan is currently a tropical depression.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE
TRACK FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72
HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO
INFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. NHC



Hot sea water (30C) and a slower forward momentum increases the chances that Stan will make hurricane status before landfall.

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Originally posted by sdrumrunner
I've posted a thread in the Peak Oil forum discussing the potential impact of Stan to Gulf oil supply, as the Bay of Campeche is resposnible for over 2/3 of Mexico's crude production.

Since Stan is only a weak TS and will emerge with even less force,
Petróleos Mexicanos' hasn't much to worry about.

Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 10/01/2005 21:43
0% across the board, emerging with 28mph winds means little threat.
hurricane.methaz.org...
___________________________________

Remember hurricane Emily this year?

Actually, Emily tracked further to the north of the heaviest concentration of Pemex GOM operations. Both current and forthcoming NOAA graphs will demonstrate the much closer proximity to direct-effect exposure to damaging elements caused by Stan (I have posted comparative graphs below).

Also, the estimated production impact you quoted is for U.S. production interests only. It does not provide any direct production impact data or analysis for Pemex operations.

Map of Cantarell Oil Field:



Comparison of swaths of exposure to TS/hurricane-force winds:

Emily:


Stan:


As you can see, the greatest concentration of production infrastructure is at greater risk of direct exposure to damaging elements than it was from the passing of Emily. Max. sustained winds of 58 mph (with gusts up to 69mph) now extend 30 miles to the SE of the center (as per the latest advisory).

Emily as she left the Yucatan north of the Bay of Campeche:


Stan brewing in the Bay of Campeche as per the most recent GOES IR image:




And while yes, as you have also rightfully pointed out, Mexico has already scaled down it's export-oriented operations due to Rita-related constrictions on our refining capcity (thus negating any potential short-term additional direct impact on our own petroleum supply), I think it is too premature to assume there will be no quanitfiable impact whatsoever.

There are in truth still too many variables in play, including the forecasted strengthening of Stan over the next 24 hours.

And considering the Bay of Campeche accounts for 67% of Mexico's crude production, it would seem far too premature to dismiss any risk of impact to the supply chain. As mentioned, in these times of extremely tight supply, even the slightest indirect disruption or impact will invariably send ripples downstream.

[edit on 3-10-2005 by sdrumrunner]

Convection firing near the center of Stan, which is allowing it to intensify,
and the SHIPS model brings the system to hurricane status in 24 hours.

Stan is forecasted to be at least a category 2 hurricane before making landfall.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.



Model guidance now in dictates the ridge to the north will remain intact,
must of been bad data input last night.

Man, was this a surprise to find this after getting home from work. I thought Stan was finished. I checked Accu Weather 6 Pm Report and found this.

Hurricane warnings are now in effect from Cabo Rojo southward to Punta El Lagarto. A tropical storm warning is also in effect south of this hurricane warning area from east of Punta El Lagarto to Chilitepec. The tropical storm force winds should start to arrive along the Mexican coast near Vera Cruz during Tuesday and hurricane force winds probably won't reach the coast until early Wednesday morning. However, the circulation will bring bands of heavier rain and thunderstorms to the coast as the tropical storm force winds arrive. Several inches of rain, perhaps 8-12 inches, are expected within 50 miles of landfall. Stan should make landfall during Wednesday morning. After that the remaining circulation will interact with mountains of the Sierra Madre Oriental during Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. These mountains could help bring torrential rainfall which could lead to mudslides and flooding.

When these storms hit the warm waters of the Gulf they explode very fast.
This is where the past tropical storms went according to history. I just hope the ridge holds Stan on predicted track.


[edit on 3-10-2005 by Harry55]

Here's the average composite sea surface temperature
and the track of Stan is overlaid on this image....bathwater.


click to enlarge

Last visible satellite image of the day:

With Stan in town its not a good time to be in Cancun.


A man pushes his motorcycle in through the flooded streets of the resort city of Cancun, Mexico after heavy rains due to tropical depression Stan Sunday Oct. 2, 2005.
The 11 Pm Update Accu Weather

STAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
Tropical Storm Stan was located at 19.7 north, 93.4 west, about 190 miles east northeast of Vera Cruz Mexico. Stan is moving to the west at 7 mph Maximum sustained winds area at 60 mph, and the minimum pressure was estimated to be 990 millibars, or 29.23 inches. Hurricane warnings are now in effect from Cabo Rojo southward to Punta El Lagarto. A tropical storm warning is also in effect south of this hurricane warning area from east of Punta El Lagarto to Chilitepec.

Satellite images continue to show intense thunderstorm development and the pressure in Stan continues to fall. A reconnessance aircraft will reach Stan overnight and determine whether winds have increased. Based on the past 12 hours of satellite images AccuWeather believes Stan will become a category 1 hurricane within the next 24 hours

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
STAN HAS MOVED MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO THAN
FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATES
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... AND STAN COULD VERY
SOON BECOME A HURRICANE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
AFTER 100 AM CDT TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR 100 AM CDT. NHC

Sat images are intense and water vapor image colors are at the top of their scales.
Check out the white in the centers of the deep blues...not something you see very often.

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

Loop here:
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

Here's the NRL IR sat:

click to enlarge

Minus 80C and colder cloud top temps, that's some serious storming!

Models indicated Cat 2 hurricane before landfall:




[edit on 4-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN ACCELERATES TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD...

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.

Tropical Storm Stan


Well, could be a hurricane by landfall.

Stan Becomes a Hurricane

MANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH STAN OVERNIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER FIXES INDICATE STAN HAS BEEN MOVING
PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OR 235/10. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING...NHC

Faster forward speed will mean less flooding but deeper penetration into Mexico.



[edit on 4-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Special statement just came out, Stan is getting stronger

...STAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

SHORTLY AFTER THE 4 AM CDT ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...DATA FROM THE
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE STAN HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. NHC



The forward speed and sudden intensity burst as it slams into Mexico,
may have caught many still preparing or completely unprepared.

A woman wades a flooded street of Puerto de San Jose City, 100 kms from Guatemala City. Heavy rains and floods from Tropical Storm Stan hit Central America over the weekend, killing 30 in El Salvador, four in Guatemala, and four in Honduras, authorities said.

Mexico's Current Weather Alerts for the Atlantic
CNA, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional:click here

[edit on 4-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Hurricane Stan Makes Landfall

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB



Dissipation is expected in 24-36 hours as Stan heads into the Sierra Madres (10,000 feet elevation).

5 PM EST Report Accu Weather

As of 4 p.m. CDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Stan was located at 17.8 north, 95.6 west, inland about 105 miles east-southeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Stan is moving to the southwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 50 mph. The minimum pressure was estimated to be 992 millibars, or 29.29 inches. All coastal warnings have now been Stan will continue to weaken while unleashing heavy rain across southeastern Mexico. Rainfall of 12 inches will occur in many places in path of the storm, perhaps locally higher as it will be heading into mountainous terrain. Mudslides and flooding will result in parts of southeastern Mexico over the next couple of days. If Stan keeps moving westward the heavier rainfall and flood potential will diminish by Thursday night. However, if Stan were to stall over or near the mountains for more than 24 hours it could bring major flooding and major damage to the region west of Veracruz.

Hurricane Stan strikes Mexico, 51 dead in Centam .

Reuters Report

VERACRUZ, Mexico (Reuters) - Hurricane Stan smacked into Mexico's Gulf coast on Tuesday, forcing evacuations and shutting down oil ports after killing at least 51 people in Central America.Category One hurricane with winds of nearly 80 mph (128 kph), although it then weakened to a tropical storm.

"The weather is terrible, it's raining and windy. Some of the trees are falling down," hotel worker Nabor Sandoval said from Veracruz, a normally balmy, laid-back colonial port.

Hundreds of people were evacuated in Veracruz as rivers overflowed into residential areas, the city government said.

Four people were injured in Veracruz state when the roofs of their homes were blown off.

"There are no deaths but things are difficult. It is too much water," said a spokeswoman for the state civil protection agency.

CNN.COM


A resident removes water from his flooded home with a bucket Tuesday in Veracruz, Mexico.



Members of the Red Cross evacuate children during flooding south of Managua, Nicaragua.

[edit on 4-10-2005 by Harry55]