If Oil Goes Up, The Canadian Dollar Goes Up? Strange?

This is pretty interesting, I think the canucks are up to something?



www.fxcm.com...


For those not familiar with currency, CAD/JPY is a currency pair. Currency pairs are set to a default of buy the first sell the second. So the CAD/JPY is saying buy the Canadian Dollar and Sell the Japanese Yen.

The chart is showing that historical when oil prices go up, the canadian dollar is worth more and the Japanese is worth less.

But why would the Canadian dollar be worth more? And why the 87% positive correlation? Very strange I think but interesting.

www.fxcm.com...*215

How much oil does alberta sell Stateside? In a nutshell, there is your answer.

DE

Canada is considered a major oil producing country. Therefore, when the price of crude oil goes up in price, the value of this Canadian resource also causes the Canadian dollar to increase as well.

Yup, we 'Nucks have surplus oil.

However... something that's worth thinking long and hard about, stateside, is exactly why should we be inclined to increase our exports to the US?

In the past few years, America has been a very poor trade partner. There's plenty of threads and information on this site about that topic, but it's becoming more and more of an issue.

We could help out here... but again I'll pose the question; Why would we want to?

I don't find it strange. As was said, the U.S. imports a lot of oil from Canada, so as the price goes up more U.S. dollars are sold to buy Canadian dollars...it's simple supply and demand.

[edit on 9/23/2005 by djohnsto77]

Originally posted by BitRaiser
Yup, we 'Nucks have surplus oil.

However... something that's worth thinking long and hard about, stateside, is exactly why should we be inclined to increase our exports to the US?

In the past few years, America has been a very poor trade partner. There's plenty of threads and information on this site about that topic, but it's becoming more and more of an issue.

We could help out here... but again I'll pose the question; Why would we want to?

Q: Where does a 300lbs Gorrilla sit?
A: Anywhere he wants to!

But seriously... the reason Canada sells to the US is because it turns a profit and keeps the gun totting loons to the south happy.

In addition to what everyone has already said, I would like to add that when the US dollar goes down the Canadian Dollar goes up and vice versa.

Originally posted by Quest
Q: Where does a 300lbs Gorrilla sit?
A: Anywhere he wants to!

Alternate answer: Stuffed and mounted in a trophy room.
[qoute]
But seriously... the reason Canada sells to the US is because it turns a profit and keeps the gun totting loons to the south happy.

But if China is a better trade partner (which they have been lately), why would we not do business with them instead?

My point is that the 300 lbs Gorrilla is pissing off the bannana farmers. When those farmers get sick of dealing with a cranky, pushy gorilla, they're gonna feed the bannanas to the monkeys 'n leave the Gorilla to starve.

This isn't a little issue.

There's already been protests up here over the suggestion of ramping up production to meet US needs.

I'll see if I can dig up links later... if ya like.

If you want a real mystery, tell me why gas prices rise in Canada when a hurricane hits in the united states.

And dont tell me we have no oil.

Originally posted by Dulcimer
If you want a real mystery, tell me why gas prices rise in Canada when a hurricane hits in the united states.

I think it shot up in Europe too...

Ask the petroleum corporations

Originally posted by djohnsto77

Originally posted by Dulcimer
If you want a real mystery, tell me why gas prices rise in Canada when a hurricane hits in the united states.

I think it shot up in Europe too...

Ask the petroleum corporations

Oil corps wish! The real reason (most don't seem to know) is because oil prices are run on a free market system and prices can be locked in via commodity futures contracts. Essentially oil investors/companies can all buy up oil at certain price levels or if speculators feel they will ahead of time, they can start buying it up, running up prices.

Although technically they don't physically own the barrels, they own the right to own the barrels at a certain price (contract). They are the ones who run up prices on this tulip called oil.

And it actually has very little to do with companies or opec raising prices. They aren't raising anything, they can't just go in and change the price. It's not wal-mart. What governments and oil companies can do however is purchase up contracts at certain prices as a hedge and then start requesting delivery for distribution.

Say they own contracts on oil at the $67/$3 a gallon level, and oil skyrockets to $100+, technically they can say we'll lock you in at $3 a gallon meaning that although they will have the right to sell it back in the open market at possibly $5+ a gallon for a profit since they got it for $67 a barrel, they won't try to make a profit and will sell it back at the same price they got it for (at cost).

The odds of that happening from a company are very laughable considering they would be going against their own mission statement and shareholders interest and could possible even be fired. The shareholders could literally then fire an oil company CEO for acting against their interests by voting them out. So that's probably not going to happen.

Another way is that the government of certain countries could buy contracts and lock in prices or say you cannot sell oil for more than this price and come to a uniform agreement.

But as far as governments doing either, I think that is a slippery slope. Depending on the scale of a goverment doing that, either one of two things could happen, the artificial ceiling could place so much pressure on oil and suppy constraints that it literally skyrockets to the moon, or investors will see it as a cap and get out, and oil would then gap right back down.

Historically on govt intervention on commodities, for example in around 1970 i believe it was, gold wasn't allowed to pass a certain price level or be sold for more than a certain amount. Right after they lifted that price level/cap on gold, I believe it was in the 70s, gold skyrocketed.

So we'll see.

[edit on 23-9-2005 by Lord Altmis]

and you dont want to be the person holding the option when prices crash. when people make money some one looses money. you can also make money by betting that prices will drop

Lord Altmis is basically right, but the same principle applies to grain futures.

But you dont see them jumping all over the place like oil.

For example: We used to be able to get 9 dollars a bushel for Canola. Now we get around 4.50.

Its not even worth growing.

Where I live its massive crop failure. Again you dont here that on the news. Anyone hear about the millions in losses in Canada? The agriculture impact from hurricane Katrina on U.S. farmers?

Not much.

Oh, Canada
The great and ignored land
Long will we wait
For all the worlds demands.

We will grow your grains
and we'll take great pains
to bring you lots of goods
But we''ll ever stand
to seem ungrand
and whine about your hoods.

(please add on to your pleasure)

Oh Canada
Our home with unlocked doors
True patriot love
Is so 1984

With gay rights and bad gun law
The true north duty free

With cold and snow
We live in it with glee


etc