Hurricane Rita ( Bad News For Gulf )

Originally posted by AndrewTB
You guys think about NO? IF that area got a double whammy they would be screwed for eternity. Especially with people starting to go back home (if their home was left). I dont think that would be very pretty!

Apparently there's a high pressure area blocking the storm from going up to that area, it's likely to stay to the south and hit southern Texas or northern Mexico, but yes you're right any storm that could hit that area again could do a lot of damage.

Originally posted by AndrewTB
You guys think about NO? IF that area got a double whammy they would be screwed for eternity. Especially with people starting to go back home (if their home was left). I dont think that would be very pretty!

Correct, most of the models have her nailing Texas.................. except the BAM model which has a direct hit on the Delta..........

The storm is now 60MPH, not too far from a hurricane.
It looks like there will be a lot of rain hitting Florida, 6-10" with isolated amounts of as much as 15" in the Florida Keys.

noaa

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES... 405 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 490 MILES... 790
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

Rita is getting bigger and now Miami officials are waiting till the 11 am Advisory to issue any mandatory warnings, right now officials are warning everyone to prepare, stock up and get ready if evacuation orders are issued...

8am advisory should be coming shortly, but I'm off to the grocery store to stock up on bread and a few other essential staples...just in case

NOAA


AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.8 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO THE SOUTHERLY
SHEAR OVER RITA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FASTER DEVELOPMENT RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.



This sounds like the storm is about to get cranked up. There is alot of very warm water between Rita and the Keys and folks had better take warning and leave.

[edit on 19-9-2005 by Harry55]

got my supplies, heading over to granny's to get her ready for whatever Rita brings.

I do want to advise, that while right now focus is on South Florida and the Keys, those along the Gulf, especially Texas should be watching this very very closely and making preparations now. Look, if you get lucky and it doesn't come your way, think of your preparations as a dress rehearsal and remember you can always use your supplies, you'll be saving yourself from going to the grocery store for a few weeks and well, it's always better to be safe than sorry.

Even though I consider myself a veteran at this stuff by now, I always run through all those links and refresh my memory when a watch and/or warning is issued for my area.

NHC Preparedness Guide
How to Plywood Shutter your Home
How to Purify Stored Water

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Yikes!


[edit on 19-9-2005 by loam]

Originally posted by loam
Yikes!

Yeah it seems with every update they keep moving the track to the north, it could end up being a threat to NO after all

Here's the latest I heard from the Weather Channel:

--Forecast to be a major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast

--Mandatory evacuations for EVERYONE south of the Seven Mile Bridge in the Keys

--School and government building closings today and tomorrow in Monroe County, FL

--Jeb declared State of Emergency

I seriously doubt it'll be anywhere near Cat 5 when it goes through/by the Keys, but I don't think anyone's going to be taking any chances. I think people saw just what a hurricane can do (like in NOLA) and aren't quite so uppity.

People I don't want to sound pessimistic but I have this nagging feeling that is going to impact NO area again.

I am so sorry that it may happen but that is the way of nature.

11:00 EST update. Does include NO as a possibility now....

[edit on 19-9-2005 by loam]

All Keys Residents are under Mandatory Evacuation right now
Mandatory evacuations begin in Keys as Florida readies for Rita

Hurricane warning extended into Miami-Dade County

and my kids who happen to be home today are even more happy about the following news
Broward schools to be closed Tuesday

I just got back from granny's and went thru something like a feeder band, gusty winds, torrential rain and then as quick as it came, it left. But if I'm feeling it from now, tonight and tomorrow should definitely be nasty

Wow, look at the latest water vapor image.......

WorldWatcher where are you located ? Be sure you and your family are safe. Sounds as if you have expierance dealing with these storms. Thanks for the reports.

This storm is for sure starting to build and looks very dangerous. They keep moving the track more north with each report.

thanks harry, we will.

I'm in Sunrise, Western Broward County. I have accordian shutters, I'm well stocked always, I'm confident in my safety since Rita as of now is not posing a direct hit on Broward, we're in the Tropical Storm Warning/Hurricane Watch area right now.

Originally posted by marg6043
People I don't want to sound pessimistic but I have this nagging feeling that is going to impact NO area again.

I am so sorry that it may happen but that is the way of nature.

Even if it doesn't hit NO, it'll still have an impact on NO.

With it's current track, it takes it right to where most of the evacuees are. This may be the last straw for people in that area. I think alot of people who may have thought about returning definately won't now.


But...the fact that there's a possibility that this could hit or directly affect NO....that's just scary

Of course, it may just serve as a wake-up call, that when rebuilt, it should be ABOVE sea level... You know they won't do that though. They'll drain it, clean it, leave many water-logged buildings, make stronger levees and some improved pumps...all so it can happen all over again...(just to a lesser extent)...

Anyhoo, here's the latest track (as of 11am today, an update probably at 2pm). This is a bit more realistic than what I saw last night...but high or no high, it still looks too far south as a track.... Only 10mph shy of hurricane status, so I suspect we'll be changing the title of this thread to Hurricane Rita very soon......

The area it is headed for now is still an oil area. Refineries all along there. I told the hubby to top off the tank b/c oil prices are already creaking up in anticipation. Gonna be an interesting weekend. I'm not sure how much Texas can take. We have extended a great amount of resources fot Katrina victims, I'd hate to think what might happen if we had our own.

Of course, let me point out how speculative these tracks are. Here was Katrina. Look at where the storm was predicted to go and where it actually went...

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[edit on 19-9-2005 by loam]