Watch Out - Now it's Peak Bread!

I did some research and discovered that we are not producing enough bread to feed the world. And at present production rates, we will not be able to keep up with future population growth!

And there is a drought in the midwest USA killing all of our wheat.

What are we to do? We must find alternatives sources, maybe crackers.

Oh yes, the above is very true. But it is also sarcasm and a mockery of Peak Oil posts.

What would you like the oil companies to do - pump more oil than we can use and store it in super tankers and await catastrophe? And have environmentalists screaming at them?

Do we need to find alternative fuel sources? Yes, we most definitely do. But nobody wants a nuclear plant in their backyard. Nobody wants to slow down their vehicles, or be in paper thin vehicles. Nobody wants to be without electric in their homes.

Are we running out of oil? Debatable but nothing that will effect any of us. New oil reserves are found every day. Many are being found right now in Africa and South America. Most of what is found elsewhere are being capped off awaiting future use.

Are we at peak oil? No. Oil companies can and will add rigs and pump more oil when they see the need. Most of Iraq'g oil rigs haven't been pumping since the war. What happens when their rigs and pipelines become secure? What about the reserves in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan? Remember, they are so plentiful that the USA was going to have Osama Bin Laden build a Billion dollar pipeline across Afghanistan to get those reserves out (before 9/11 happened).

Are oil refineries running near max capacities? Of course they are, better efficiency and profit. These refineries cost billions and no one wants it in their backyard.

Are the oil companies getting rich making you believe in Peak Oil? Well, in the USA their profits are up 100-150% so far this year.

So go on and worry about fictitious Peak Oil. I'm going to worry about Peak Bread!!!

Should post your satirical rantings devoid of facts for the peanut gallery in the BTS section

Then start doing to statistical research, before you eat more crow soup with your peaked bread. New oil reserves are being discovered but only at the rate of 6 billion barrels per year which offsets only 25 per cent of consumption. I worked the oil patch long enough to know what the reality is and yours is one of blantant denial or plain ignorance.

Maybe next week you can write about how Krypton blew up and suprised all but one Superman.

No more cheap oil, so get used to it or change it.



[edit on 18-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Ah, but according to DOE (Dept of Energy) the reserves are already in the trillions.

And there is the issue of oil fields increasing in size. Which I think is better work from geologists predicting field sizes. There are now known oil reserves on every continent (except maybe Antarctica). And more will be discovered.

We are not running of oil anytime soon. We are not at Peak Oil.

Peak oil defined is the end of cheap oil, so we don't need to play semantics.

The total reserves touted by the DOE have little to do with the costs of extraction, there's huge amounts of helium 3 on the Moon for that matter.

The price per barrel is determined by the free market and you can trade there yourself. Your eluding that the price is fixed by some neocon oil cabal is just silly, considering you want to claim DOE statistics. In order to control prices you need to control production, since world production is not controlled and oil commodities are readily traded on the market, there is no price fixing. Our rate of global consumption increases as finite resources go down...simple math.


So why don't you explain why the price/bbl has went up 100% in the last year?
Also why don't you show us an example of one of these growing oil fields.


And you can save the parrot routine for the petshop.

[edit on 18-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Are we at peak oil? No. Oil companies can and will add rigs and pump more oil when they see the need. Most of Iraq'g oil rigs haven't been pumping since the war. What happens when their rigs and pipelines become secure? What about the reserves in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan? Remember, they are so plentiful that the USA was going to have Osama Bin Laden build a Billion dollar pipeline across Afghanistan to get those reserves out (before 9/11 happened).

You mean the Taliban not bin Laden right? I belive that pipeline was built earlier this year, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

And your statement that oil companies can add rigs whenever they see fit, doesn't make any sense to me. There are limits you know.

And if peak oil is such a myth can you please explain why Chevron would sponsor a website such as this? www.willyoujoinus.com...

Get ready for another price increase, though probably not as drastic as the last one.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

ThatoneGuy: No, I mean Osama bin Laden and his Construction Company. He was courted here in the USA and was promised to get the construction contract as long as he awarded the pipeline contract to US Oil Companies. He refused and awarded it to South American Companies. The pipeline was never built.

Talk about Semantics, I did not know the definition changed for Peak Oil. I wonder if that is because their past predictions never came true.

Peak Oil is also known as the Hubert Peak, where oil production will reach a peak and then rapidly decline. It was predicted to happen all the way back to 1989. Yet, 16 years later, we are still not there.

You state that you have worked oil patches in the past. So have I. Why don't you tell the members of ATS the percentage Oil Companies UNDER estimate these patches when they are drilled. It is a MAJOR percentage and has been going on for years.

Here is an example of one of these growing oil fields. Would you trust the Wall Street Journal? Here is their Headline from April 16, 1999:
"It's No Crude Joke: This Oil Field Grows Even as It's Tapped"
You can read the story here, towards the bottom.
ATS Thread

The United States Geological Survey estimates there are enough petroleum reserves to continue current production rates for at least 50 to 100 years.

And, according to one Peak Oil critic, Leonardo Maugeri, the ratio between proven oil reserves and current production has constantly improved, passing from 20 years in 1948 to 35 years in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003.
Leonardo

Let's look at Iraq. It has the second largest reserves in the world. It has had production problems due to wars from 1980 to present days. By 2002, oil production was about 70% of what it was in the 1970s. Following the U.S. invasion in 2003, oil production slowly returned to about 80% to 95% of what it had been in 2002. Still 35-50% of 1970. Iraq is still not up to where it was in 1970. In fact according to CIA experts, in 2004, Irag was producing about 25% of what the USA is producing.
CIA Facts, Iraq

Let's look at Russia. The rebound in Russian oil production has continued since 1999, resulting in 2004 total liquids production of roughly 9.27 million bbl/d. Accordingly, in 2003, Russia was the world’s second largest producer of crude oil, behind only Saudi Arabia. From March to May 2004, Russian crude oil output actually exceeded that of Saudi Arabia. Both the Russian government and outside observers agree that production should continue to grow.
Russia Oil

And how about Kazakhstan? In 2002, Kazakhstan's oil production and net oil exports are certain to increase in the next decade as new export options are brought onstream.
Kazakhstan Oil

And there's Canada. It is estimated that the Athabasca Oil Sands deposit contains 174.5 billion barrel of oil. This is as much as one third of the world's total oil deposits (a similar amount is in the Venezuelan Orinoco tar sands field). Current production from Athabasca deposits yields over 155,000 barrels of oil per day with an increase to 280,000 barrels per day by 2010. The Athabasca tar sands is the largest oil deposit in the world, with a claimed estimation of 1.6 trillion barrels of oil, of which at most 315 billion barrels are claimed to be recoverable by the oil companies given current technology.
Athabasca Oil

Do I need to keep going on??? So, again I will state, We are not running of oil anytime soon. We are not at Peak Oil.

And there is the argument that no new major oil reserves have been found for years. Hog Wash!

The Caspian Sea region, including the Sea and the states surrounding it, is important to world energy markets because of its potential to become a major oil and natural gas exporter over the next decade. The region is thought to hold the world's third largest oil and natural gas reserves behind the Middle East and Russia.
Caspian Sea Area

Chinese oil prospectors have discovered a high-yield oil reserve in the basin near the well-known Daqing Oilfield, in northeast China's Heilongjiang Province. A corporate executive said the newly found reserve, with an estimated 25 million tons, is locatedin the Hailar Basin outside the Daqing Oilfield. According to the company official, prospectors also found another oilfield in the same basin last year with exploitable oil reserves standing at 13.36 million tons. Currently, the proven exploitable oil reserves at Daqing are set at 570 million tons. The oilfield has so far produced 1.7 billion tons of crude oil.
China Daqing Field

26-08-02 The Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh announced discovery of 50 bn barrels of new oil reserves in the country during the past 4.5 years. According to the Central News Bureau, he said development of the oil industry and discovery of new oil reserves are very important to his ministry.

13-07-05 Recent geological surveys have found that there is a new gas field with a daily production capacity of 10 mm cf in southern Tanzania.
The findings were revealed in Dodoma where the Tanzanian National Assembly is currently in session.
Tanzania

Sept 2004. Mexico may have found billions of barrels in new potential oil reserves deep beneath the ocean, but it lacks experience in deep-water drilling and suffers from a historical aversion to hiring foreign companies for such projects. The Minerals Management Service of the U.S. Department of the Interior said in a recent report that ultimate reserves in the deep water Gulf are approximately 71 billion barrels of oil equivalent, of which 56.4 billion are yet to be discovered.
Mexico

Estimates of Canada's oil reserves jumped from 4.9 to 180 billion barrels this year(2003), making it the second-largest oil reserve in the world, acc. to an annual survey by the authoritative O&GJ. While the resource had been known for some time, it has now become economically recoverable and therefore included as "reserves."
Canada

Angola - New discoveries are adding reserves faster than existing reserves are being depleted. In no other country are the replacements at such a level. Angola leads the worlds oil production statistics with a 583 per cent replacement rate in 2001.
Angola

Norway April,2000 - Around one hundred oil and gas finds are awaiting development during the next 25 years and the expected investments during this period will be as great as those that have been made so far.
Norway

And here is some info from Leonardo Maugeri:

The world has, according to current estimates by the US Geological Survey, about 3,000 billion barrels of "ultimate recoverable resources". Of these, about 900 billion have been already exploited, another 1,000 billion are "proven" (that is, economic to recover) and the remainder are designated "possible" or "probable". That is enough oil for 35-50 years.

Cycles of hysteria followed by new bonanzas have turned throughout history, he argued recently in the journal Science. Estimates of proved world oil reserves have been steadily increasing since the Forties, a trend he says is likely to continue because of our simplistic knowledge of the Earth, ignorance of the extent of reserves and inability to forecast developments in extraction technology.

"Oil-doomsters consider their figures as 'sacred' – something dogmatic that is set now and for ever. In fact, history shows that, over time, some possible resources become 'proven', some 'probable' become 'possible' and the figure for 'yet to find resources' always increases."

There are many examples. The best estimates in 1942 indicated that the Kern River field in California had just 54 million barrels of remaining oil. By 1986, however, the field had produced 736 million barrels and estimates put the remaining reserves at 970 million barrels. "The field had not changed but knowledge had," he said.
Leonardi Maugeri

Do I dare say it again??? We are not running out of oil. We are not at Peak Oil.

So why don't you explain why the price/bbl has went up 100% in the last year? I have still yet to see your premise for why the market doesn't reflect your theory, still waiting.

Reported reserves are essentially meaningless and exist in the eye of the beholder.

Saudis optimistic, U.S. conservative in their estimates
"The only way you finally, really know much proven reserves an oil field has is when you cap the last well," said Matthew Simmons, chairman of a Houston investment bank serving the energy industry.
www.sfgate.com.../c/a/2005/08/21/BUG93EANVS1.DTL

World Oil Supply-Production Reserves and EOR
hubbert.mines.edu...

Yada yada, I can post 100's of articles too in favor of peak oil, so let's cut to the chase and establish your theory as to why the price doesn't reflect supply

100's of peak oil articles-google scholar search also

p.s 50% est = creative booking, not fact. i.e Shell fiasco recently

[edit on 18-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

I never stated this thread is about the price of oil. Closest thing I ever said to that was the Oil Companies profits are up 100-150%. Which indicates to me that they are not concerned about Peak Oil due to their lack of investment in R&D.

The price/bbl has went up 100% in the last year because of false speculation and fear of Peak Oil. Propaganda generated by the oil barons and continued by you and others.

Your "yada yada yada" tells me you don't want to read or listen to my facts. Your mind is already brainwashed. I can lead a horse to water but I can't make him drink it. If the fact that Peak Oil has been discussed in the present tense for 16 years but still hasn't happened is not enough to convince you of a hoax, then nothing will change your mind.


[edit on 9/19/05 by Qwas]

Here's an idea....
If you want to discuss the topic in a mature manner, feel free. If you want to taunt and start trouble and flames, chase Crackers and bread elsewhere, huh?

You have to look at the whole graph here; both demand and supply affect the price. If prices are too high, people will stop paying them and as a result will develop their own alternatives, the demand will drop and bring the price back down. Economic cycles happen and equilibriums do adjust. It's not necessarily the case that the supply is decreasing, in all probability it is merely being held constant (or possibly slightly diminished by temporary conflicts) by a bottleneck in refining and production. Certain oil fields will need a certain price before they become economically viable. Societal values also play a role in the bottleneck. All the while the worlds demand for energy and fuel for technology increases. The price of oil is not necessarily the result of there not being any left to pump out.

I'm telling you things you already know, but just keep these basics in mind.

*Edit: I think I remember hearing something last week about hedged oil prices being down too. Not a bad sign.

[edit on 9-19-2005 by insite]

Originally posted by Qwas
The price/bbl has went up 100% in the last year because of false speculation and fear of Peak Oil. Propaganda generated by the oil barons and continued by you and others.

I can see you have very little knowledge in world commodity trading or the markets to think it has been artificially pumped and hyped for a year(s). I suggest you go find those oil cabal boogiemen and price fixing masters and send it to the media, they will love to headline it. The USGS and SEC would love to see it too, as would 1000's of brokers and hedge fund managers, as would all US senators and heads of state.

You failed to prove your consipracy by parroting unaudited subjective analysises. That burden of proof is on you, when you make outragous claims that are to the contrary of the main view. Your speculative oil links don't mean much until it comes out of the ground and onto the market, that's realism. Discovering reserves that cost $200-400+/bbl to extract will not support economic growth or will even be used before economic collapse aka Peak Oil.



NY gold ends at new 17-year peak as metals rally, oil up +$4.39/bbl and Natgas up +$1.53 14% at $12.68.. The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 9 -- that's less than half the government's reported 6.6 million-barrel decline. Motor gasoline inventories rose 5.6 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 1.4 million barrels. Chart watchers eye $70 peak for oil.

Today another major hurricane threatens the Gulf region, and Galveston just announced a voluntary evacuation . Due to Katrina's damage: 7 offshore platforms completely gone, never to be replaced, and an estimated 6 to 10 more so badly damaged that they too are going to be abandoned forever. Costs associated with repair and replacement exceed the reserve values left, meaning 100,000 BBls / day is off the market for an indefinite period.

High cost of energy is bad for the economy and no one has an interest in destroying economic growth, conglomerates don't shoot their own foot. We can throw in why we invaded Iraq too for a whopping cost of $200 billion plus the lives 1,900 US soldiers, and it wasn't about wmd's or democracy.

Uncle Sam dances for Oil’s New Mr. Big
14,000 U.S. Citgo service stations say PAY MORE
Venezuela is one of America’s biggest suppliers of crude—and that’s the way leftist President Hugo Chavez likes it. He’s looking to squeeze more dollars out of the international oil companies that drill there, while keeping prices high. The world, too, is beginning to know the extent of Venezuela’s oil ambitions. American oil companies and consumers alike are going to end up paying more for it.

Cheerleaders blab: Oh, no oil shortage here folks, the US loves to take orders from Venuzuela.
_________________________________

What to do in a failing civilization

Economic growth requires increasing the amount of high quality energy and materials degraded by the economy each year. Economic growth on a finite planet will eventually stop. If it does not exhaust the resources needed for its continuation, it will stop earlier for some other reason. Allowing resource depletion and biosphere degradation to terminate economic growth will produce catastrophe. Unfortunately, our dependence on economic growth makes it extremely unlikely that we will give it up voluntarily before the catastrophe. Our dependence has at least four aspects: A) in the need to deal with adverse consequences of labor-reducing innovations, B) in commercial bank money, C) in the need to maintain tolerance of inequality, and D) in financial markets.

more: www.energybulletin.net...

Post-oil era where supply is everything and crystal balls are not.





[edit on 19-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

What to do in a failing civilization
Economic growth requires increasing the amount of high quality energy and materials degraded by the economy each year. Economic growth on a finite planet will eventually stop. If it does not exhaust the resources needed for its continuation, it will stop earlier for some other reason. Allowing resource depletion and biosphere degradation to terminate economic growth will produce catastrophe. Unfortunately, our dependence on economic growth makes it extremely unlikely that we will give it up voluntarily before the catastrophe. Our dependence has at least four aspects: A) in the need to deal with adverse consequences of labor-reducing innovations, B) in commercial bank money, C) in the need to maintain tolerance of inequality, and D) in financial markets.

more: www.energybulletin.net...

Post-oil era where supply is everything and crystal balls are not.

This is all just Malthusian theory, requiring the use of the same crystal balls we're all using.

Unfortunately, our dependence on economic growth makes it extremely unlikely that we will give it up voluntarily before the catastrophe

This does not seem to take into consideration the effect price has on the financial viability of alternatives, let alone the price effect on a consumers income. Where a consumer spends their scarce resources is a function of the price and is what determines opportunity costs. If the opportunity costs associated with spending more on fuel increases, consumers are likely to change their behavior. This is of course assuming that consumers do not suffer from money illusion, which from further reading in the article is one of the assumptions the author makes regarding income.

I like the Venezuela example, same thing was about to happen in Bolivia earlier this year. Still don't see how you prove the world is running out of oil, though.

Maybe you should stick within the context of the argument before making baseless assumptions and not reading what I wrote, hmmm?

Once Again:

Peak oil defined is the end of cheap oil, so we don't need to play semantics.

The total reserves touted by the DOE have little to do with the costs of extraction, there's huge amounts of helium 3 on the Moon for that matter.

Read more about my premise here:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

The act of reading about "What to do" is not Malthusian theory, it's called cognitive learning and encompassing a futurist thought process. Denial is not a component of that process, that's has more to do with egocentrism.

The US economy and it's citizens are strapped with record debts and a declining dollar. A fiscal catastrophe lies ahead with a federal budget deficit of $500 billion for this year. Looks like money illusion to me as in 1925, soon to be 1929.






[edit on 20-9-2005 by Regenmacher]