Hurricane Ophelia. Heading For Florida ??

Winds still at 50mph, and still no idea for track (instead of a cone, we have a circle of projection )

I'm out of the circle by about one city block, hehe...

Last I looked, I didn't see anything else brewin' (other than the existing storms), so at least that's something I take comfort in, hehe....

Well, I'm just going to assume since Indy hasn't checked in I have nothing to worry about - lol.

Right?

Originally posted by imbalanced
updated photo of TD16, nate and maria

Interesting. It looks to me that you can clearly see Katrina's path traced out by the clear sections on that map.

With the other three looking like eddys
.

One weather expert was saying that some long term projections for Ophelia have it moving north then east out into the atlantic, and then south and back west.. across Forida and out into the Gulf of Mexico.

Lets hope this one is wrong!!

All day I've watched the 5 day forecast, now showing no direct hit to land, but a turn back on Sunday. Meanwhile, NONE of the computer models come close to the five day forecast or each other.

Looks like a crap shoot for moi.

We now show a strengthening on the five day forecast to Cat 1, while it loops around in the warm water off shore this weekend.

So, save for the weekend, then it's anyones guess.

well Ophelia is certainly giving EVERYONE in the cone, I mean circle of error time to prepare.

This is not directed to anyone in specific, just people in general: If you're not stocking up and making that plan for what you will do when she finally chooses a target now, you're an idiot.

Fair warning has been given, you can't ask for a nicer storm than that.

At least they're admitting they have no frickin' clue with this one, hehe...

Though that's hardly comforting. Still, a Cat 1 is more of an inconvenience, than something to truly fear... But, it's still wise to be prepared, as mentioned, even a TS can knock your power out for a couple days....and do damage.

Here's the latest...

external image



See Loop: www.ssd.noaa.gov...



As of the 11am advisory, winds up to 60 mph, still stationary, and they still have no clue.
Strengthening is expected.


[edit on 8-9-2005 by Gazrok]

(edit to resize large image)

[edit on 12-9-2005 by pantha]

Well she's growing imo

and just look at these model runs


the NHC should get one of these icons

Seriously! It's about like picking stocks with a dart board!

a giant mosquito eh? let me think ...

kalki good eye it does look like a giant mosquito

I can't believe one of these tracks actually has landfall in Cuba.

Wow, it really does look like a mosquito....what're the odds?

Oh, it's a little stronger now...65mph winds...

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES.

THE PROJECTED PATH OF OPHELIA IS...WELL, HELL WE HAVE NO EARTHLY IDEA. THE SPAGHETTI MODELS END UP LOOKING LIKE A GIANT MOSQUITO, SO WE THINK MOTHER NATURE IS SIMPLY FOOLING WITH US.

Ok, so I added that last part, hehe....

The 3 day models from noaa.gov show that its heading away, but the 5 day model shows that its turning around. So, it might be possible that it will hit us Floridians. Hopefully its wrong but all of the hurrican models look wacky, and everytime they update it its different.

Latest: Ophelia is now a Cat 1 hurricane, winds 75 mph.


[edit on 8-9-2005 by John bull 1]

The NHC is calling this a hurricane. In reality its a moderate tropical storm. The central pressure of 990mb doesn't support a huricane ranking. The satellite image and radar image look bad. And a buoy about in the eye wall has reported a maximum sustained wind of 40ish miles per hour. I think it was like 37kts. The NHC misinformation machine is hard at work again.

Here it is the storm is getting stronger:



000
WTNT31 KNHC 090233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO MEANDER OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

5AM Report:

Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ophelia
has weakened to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near
65 mph...with higher gusts. However...Ophelia has the potential to
restrengthen to a hurricane over the next day or so.

Also, the loop at the end of the 5 day forcast now appears to be heading NOT to Florida.

Might get spared again. Just wish the thing would move already!

There's nothing to steer it but wishful thinking....

Last I saw, it was downgraded again to a TS (which is really where it should have stayed, as was mentioned...as it really hasn't gotten to Hurricane strength yet)...

It's started to move some, and the forecast track has it going out and looping back in... That'd be impressive forecasting if they are right on that one.... Question then is, where does it go after looping?

[edit on 9-9-2005 by Gazrok]

At the moment, it appears to be headed towards Savannah after the loop.

I don't know how to insert the pic, so maybe somoeone else will.

www.nrlmry.navy.mil...