Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:

Came across this lengthy article with a video based on a report issued by the National Academy of Sciences.

Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe New Scientist - 23 March 2009

IT IS midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colourful light. Few New Yorkers have seen the aurora this far south but their fascination is short-lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs dim and flicker, then become unusually bright for a fleeting moment. Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds, the entire eastern half of the US is without power.

NASA did a 180º forecast and now we shall have a below average cycle.

New Solar Cycle Prediction NASA


With all that in mind, I still have the feeling were are but chimps throwing darts in regards to long range solar weather forecasting.

[edit on 30-5-2009 by Regenmacher]

As if the recent solar cycle can not get any stranger, we have people pondering solar cycle 24 is already done after viewing a recent Harvard study.

Some speculation that solar cycle 25 has already begun

Welcome to the twilight geomagnetic zone...

Are Sunspots Disappearing? NASA

reply to post by Regenmacher


Okay.

But what are the implications do ya think rainmaker?

Long range forecasting based on a solar anomaly and mixed in with arctic temps at 2000 year highs is like rolling dice, and your guess is as good as mine Sofi. I have noticed the seasons seem to be arriving later and later in the last few years and was surprised to see tornadic activity in the Northern US in late summer this year. Abnormal weather patterns begat abnormal weather is about all I can say with confidence.

Some speculate a mini-ice age is coming, although I would say we need a large volcanic Toba type eruption to make that viable.

Another Little Ice Age? Solar activity and climate change ArsTechnica


We are trying to get a grip on forecasting it though.

How Sunlight Controls Climate Scientific American
New computer models begin to suggest how changes in the sun's strength might change weather patterns


[edit on 9-9-2009 by Regenmacher]

Not much to report other than Sun seems slightly more active in October than it has been for months, so this could be a considered a sign the doldrums are finally ending.

Sluggish flow inside the sun may cause late sunspot cycle SPIE

Sonograms of the solar interior reveal a flow that is taking longer than usual to move from the poles to the equator and may be related to the current long minimum of solar activity.

We do not know why the torsional oscillation is slowly migrating. We also monitor the north-south meridional flow and the differential rotation, but neither is significantly different between the two cycles. The meridional flow is thought to play an important role in determining the timing and amplitude of the solar-activity cycle,15 but at a depth far below what we can presently sample reliably.

Thus, several mysteries remain in our quest to unravel the cause of the solar cycle. Because of our analysis technique, the flows in Figure 1 are precisely symmetric across the equator, but the sun shows significant differences between the northern and southern hemispheres that may play a role in the cycle behavior. These differences can be studied using other helioseismological methods, such as ring diagrams16 and time distance.17 In addition, we are developing methods to search for the deep meridional flow that should exist about 200,000km below the surface. These techniques will enable us to learn more about the roots of the sunspot cycle.

Sunspots: Back to zero...for now Examiner

It seems that 2009 is sure to pass 1954 and 1933 to move into 4th place for sunspot-free days since 1900. Both of these years had about 240 sunspot-free days. Last year achieved 2nd place with 266 blank days,; as of Nov 2, 2009 we stand at 235 days. Given the number of days left in 2009, there’s still about an even money chance for 2009 to at least tie 2008.

[edit on 4-11-2009 by Regenmacher]

Coincidence?



Magnitude 7.2 - BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
2010 April 04 22:40:42 UTC

Magnitude 7.7 - NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2010 April 06 22:15:02 UTC



[edit on 10-4-2010 by Regenmacher]

Sunspot 1121: M5.4-class eruption at 15:36 UT on Nov. 6th, 2010 with a 20-60% probability of more M or X class flares. This sunspot is now in a geoeffective position.

According to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, geomagnetic conditions reached active levels.
when NOAA active region 1121produced repeated B and C flares. STEREO indicated that a geoeffective CMEs is associated with this activity. This could lead to enhanced geomagnetic conditions around Nov
13-14.

Although solar activity became quieter today, there is still occasionally a B or small C flare from NOAA 1123. They inform that associated CME seems to be directed northward. Even though, during the next 48 hours we may
experience geomagnetic conditions to increase (active) due to the arrival of the CME that erupted early on Nov 11.

We´ll have to monitor all other events (seismic, volcanic, etc.) to see if this increases other kind of activity on Earth.

September 2010.
Nasa warns that a massive solar flare could cause global chaos in 2013...

Causing blackouts, wrecking satellite communications and generating huge radiation levels.

The resulting solar storm could cause a geomagnetic storm on Earth, knocking out electricity grids around the world for hours, days, or even months, bringing much of normal life grinding to a halt.

Defence Secretary Liam Fox, who delivered the keynote address at an international conference on the vulnerability of electricity grids around the world, warned that modern societies' dependence on technology leaves them vulnerable to such events

The Sun follows an 11-year cycle of high and low periods of solar activity. It is now leaving a notably quiet phase and scientists expect to see a sharp increase in the number of solar flares as well as unprecedented levels of magnetic energy.

Experts met in Washington DC in June to discuss how to protect Earth from the ferocious flares, which are expected sometime around 2013.

Nasa is using dozens of satellites – including the Solar Dynamics Observatory – to study the threat.

Smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be knocked out by intense solar activity.

But much of the damage could be minimised if it was known in advance that the storm was approaching.

Source: Dailymail.co.uk

Scientists always talk about the effects of a massive solar storm on electricity grids, radiocommunications,etc. but what about say for instance our seismic and vulcanic activity? Furthermore, I would bet that all these huge radiation levels somehow will also affect humans and animals...

What is really important is that they openly admit the possibility of a major interruption of our normal life.
What would we do without electricity?
This is very serious...

Yes, scientists and governments are really worried about all this...

Have you read the latest news?

Prompted by a recent increase in solar activity, more than a hundred researchers and government officials are converging on Helwan, Egypt, to discuss a matter of global importance: storms from the sun. The “First Workshop of the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)” meets Nov. 6th through 10th and is convened by the United Nations, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). "Strong solar storms can knock out power, disable satellites, and scramble GPS," says meeting organizer and ISWI executive director Joe Davila of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "This meeting will help us prepare for the next big event. ..A key problem organizers hope to solve is a gap--many gaps, actually---in storm coverage around our planet. When a big storm is underway, waves of ionization ripple through Earth’s upper atmosphere, electric currents flow through the topsoil, and the whole planet's magnetic field begins to shake.
"These are global phenomena," says Davila, "so we need to be able to monitor them all around the world."

More and more people (amateurs, scientists, governments, etc.) are looking to the sky... Earth´s enemy seems to be coming from above... We are not prepared to cope with a massive solar storm. But the problem is that it will happen.

The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near-Earth environment Solar Cycle 24.
A prediction model estimated an average solar cycle 24, with the maximum occurring around June 2012. IPS has revised the prediction model and has estimated it to be in 2013 (September/October).

Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003...

This is starting to become really interesting as we will have the chance to monitor all the events that happen on Earth after a solar storm...

Recent major geo-effective solar flares:

M6.6 on 2011/02/13 from Sunspot 1158
M2.2 on 2011/02/14 from Sunspot 1158

On February 15 and 16 there's a good chance of CME effects with unsettled to minor storm conditions.

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE Spaceweather

You can add health impacts to the list of effects and implications. Also, low and very low frequency geomagnetic pulses -and periods of relative inactivity- seem to be quite important too, healthwise.

New all in one graphical solar information site.

SolarIMG Almost Real Time Image System v2.2
solarimg.org...


Looks like the geomagnetic storm from the m-class 6.6 has already begun.
Magnetometer readings have spiked.

X-Class 2.2 on 2011/02/15 01:44:00 from sunpsot 1158

Just a note on calculating the timing of a major geo-effective CME impact.

The fastest/largest CMEs travel over 800km/sec, 48,000km/min, 2,880,000km/hr
Distance from Sun to Earth is around 150,000,000 km
150,000,000km / 2,880,000km/hr = 52 hours approx.

-----------------------------------

The recent X2.2 flare/CME was around 500-600km/sec as it passed the ACE satellite.

X2.2 erupted on X-Class 2.2 on 2011 Feb 15 01:44:00 UTC
Initial CME shock wave reached hit ACE satellite on 2011 Feb 18 00:59 UTC
Time of travel was 72 hours approx.

Conclusion:
If a CME event takes over 52 hours to reach Earth, it will most likely have minimal impact and produce only a minor geomagnetic storm event (G1 or G2). Also a large proton event usually accompanies a major CME.

Note: Not all solar flares produce coronal mass ejections (CME), and only a few CMEs are geo-effective, meaning they are directed towards Earth.

Also see Phage's article on why the X2.2 flare/CME had a minimal effect to our geomagnetic field: Dodged a solar bullet - ATS

Video discusses possibility that the X2.2 flare triggering a cyclone in the southerm hemisphere.

This video was uploaded on Tues Feb 15, 2011:




Darwin battens down as cyclone warning issued Wed Feb 16, 2011

Scientists warn of $2000bn solar 'Katrina' UK Financial Times

Experts warn U.S. must take space storms seriously MSNBC


Currently there are no geo-effecting sunspots that are a threat to Earth. A new series of spots should be rotating into a geo-effective position in about 12-13 days according to GONG Farside's seismic image data.

reply to post by Regenmacher



Hey guy - any way you can post info about low and very low frequencies? ...usually before and after storms, but also occur other times.

...Most available info focuses on major storms but the low frequencies have health impacts too.

Thanks, sofi