What if the “Bird Flu” does kill 50-100 Million?

Originally posted by DDay
Snip..
And while true that the actual possibility of the H5 ever reaching the US is remote, consider that during the times of other pandemics our modes of transportation weren't what they are today...Snip

Hey DDay. Glad to see you posting again. Glad they created this topic finally.

I do believe that H5N1, when it goes H2H will be in the US before long...way too many ways to enter the U.S. already! Look waht happened in Canada with SARS.

Ok let me understand this correctly....is it possible for 1/3 of our present population to succum to H5?

If so we are screwed, it will travel to all ends of the globe with todays traveling public, it won't matter how old, young, rich, poor.

H5 is the same as the Spanish flu of 1918 isn't it? that killed 20 million people

H5 is the same as the Spanish flu of 1918 isn't it? that killed 20 million people

No actually it isn't the same strain. Well correction they have never been able to identify the actual strain that caused the Spanish Flu because we weren't able to isolate the influenza virus until 1933. Although attempts were made with two expeditions to the Alaskan Artic to retrieve tissue samples from victims of the Spanish Flu who were buried in permafrost. The operation was called Project George and proved unsuccessful due to result of the bodies being decomposed over yrs of freezing and thawing.

Since that time they have tried an approach from autopsy samples preserved shortly after death but so far those results have yeilded only that the virus exsisted but gives no indication as to why it was so harmful.

Gman - yes finally! People are beginning to take notice. Have you noticed how much media coverage this is beginning to receive as well? It's still small by comparision but Primetime, CNN presents and last night a PBS special about the Avian Flu.

DDay...

Give it another month and BF will be quite well known.

BTW...Dr Ann Reid published this February 16, 1999...

The Armed Forces Institute of Pathology team used samples from the body of an Alaskan Inuit who was buried in frozen ground on the Seward Peninsula, and tissue preserved in formaldehyde from a 21-year-old soldier who died at Ft. Jackson, S.C., and a 30-year-old who died at Camp Upton, N.Y.

They sequenced the entire gene from the samples for hemagglutinin, a protein the influenza virus uses to infect the cells scientists look at first to determine a flu strain.

Reid discovered that the hemagglutinin closely resembles mammal genes.

So instead of making the fast bird-pigs-people jump that scientists expect in a pandemic, the 1918 virus apparently evolved in mammals -- either pigs or humans -- through many years before suddenly mutating into a mass killer. It may have percolated in humans as early as 1900, Reid said.

Hmmm....H5N1 has been around since 1996!

Originally posted by gman55

Would we not then be better able to supply those less fortunate? Same amount of food, less people to feed?

I should imagine there would be less chicken and fewer eggs.

So no, the survivors would not be better off.

It depends who dies.

If there is a mass die-off in the northern hemisphere, then the world would be in difficulty for a period of time.

Southern Hemisphere? While tragic, a large scale die-off in this region would be much easier for the world to handle.

A scientist/Dr on Australian TV stated that the young, 0-20, would be the most susceptable to this virus.

Debbie Anne, that is really interesting. If so, then it would be similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918 (Or at least the victims).

The 1918 Flu killed the young and healthy.

Originally posted by DDay
Although attempts were made with two expeditions to the Alaskan Artic to retrieve tissue samples from victims of the Spanish Flu who were buried in permafrost. The operation was called Project George and

DDay can you point me to a link I would be very intersted in taking a look at George.

Sure Fred:

www.nimr.mrc.ac.uk...

This second link is very comprehensive about the origination of the Spanish Flu as well.

www.roche.com...

Originally posted by FredT

Originally posted by SwearBear
If 50 to +100 million were to die, I'm sure the majority of the dead would be in third world countries and poor areas of western countries.

At least it would get rid of some of the "useless" people

Yeah Hitler had the same plan. This has to be one of the most ignorant statements I have ever seen here on ATS :shk:

Plain insensitive and totally uncalled for. Are you including yourself in the above SwearBear? Hope so.

Originally posted by FredT

Originally posted by SwearBear
If 50 to +100 million were to die, I'm sure the majority of the dead would be in third world countries and poor areas of western countries.

At least it would get rid of some of the "useless" people

Yeah Hitler had the same plan. This has to be one of the most ignorant statements I have ever seen here on ATS :shk:

Hitler just wanted to get rid of the people that loaned him all the money

Originally posted by DDay

H5 is the same as the Spanish flu of 1918 isn't it? that killed 20 million people

No actually it isn't the same strain. Well correction they have never been able to identify the actual strain that caused the Spanish Flu because we weren't able to isolate the influenza virus until 1933.

Here's an ATS thread about the possibility that the 1918 flu is the same as the H5N1 of today:

The scientists used pieces of virus taken from the corpse of a flu victim, which was dug up from a frozen Alaskan Grave seven years ago. The pieces of virus were bought to life, or resurrected by combining the pieces with modern influenza virus pieces and growing the virus in bacteria. It is believed that several changes in genes caused the 1918 pandemic and the H5N1 Avian Flu is showing early sign of those same changes. Dr Taubenberger, head of the scientific team has now stated that "We now think that the best interpretation of the data available to us is that the 1918 virus was an entirely avian-like virus that adapted to humans,

NEWS: Deadly 1918 Spanish Flu Recreated By Scientists Found To Be Avian Flu

[edit on 10-10-2005 by DontTreadOnMe]

reply to post by Shaker


I believe you hit upon something when you mentioned the number of HIV infected people bein 40 Million currently.

If a semi virulent H5N1 hits that population with any degree of penetration they will fall to it rapidly and help to host it's transformation to a more successful human to human form.