Tropical Weather Watch 2005

Accuweather is predicting 11 more named storms in addition to the 7 we already had. what a busy season (I feel so much better prepared now that I have accordian shutters on my house)

here:
Our Tropical Forecast Update

This is the AccuWeather.com forecast update for the rest of the hurricane season. The numbers are big, and the threat of storms making landfall on the United States is high. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects eleven more storms to be named this season. Six of them will hit the United States, and three will come ashore as major hurricanes. The projected future damage from the storms could be as much as $12 to 18 billion. The Eastern Seaboard is most at risk for the rest of the season. The reason is that a large expanse of the ocean from the East Coast all the way to the African Coast is currently warmer than normal. This is shown in more detail in the following headline.

more on the upgrade for hurricanes this season, seems now the media has picked up on this story.

Weather Service Boosts Hurricane Forecast

With seven storms, including two hurricanes, already recorded — a record for this early in the year — National Weather Service Director David L. Johnson said Tuesday there could be 11 to 14 more tropical storms, including seven to nine more hurricanes, by the end of November.

Hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell said a combination of warmer waters, low wind shear and low pressure, as well as the jet stream, favor storm formation.

Did I mention, how relieved I am, now that I have my accordian hurricane shutters installed?

Tropical storm Harvey is increasing in strength and is now heading for Bermuda.

Harvey may become a hurricane very soon, possibly before it hits Bermuda...

www.hwn.org...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...INDICATING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Harvey - NHC Storm Path Graphics

[edit on 2005/8/3 by Hellmutt]

The storm looks horrible on satellite and the pressure is only 998mb. However the NHC has it at 60mph sustained winds. Another fraud job by the NHC. This storm should be BARELY tropical storm strength.

didn't see any updates....

but we have Tropical Storm Irene out there, no threat to the US, maybe to Bermuda though
Tropical Storm IRENE Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 071444
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...EARLIEST NINTH STORM ON RECORD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1160 MILES...1865 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

I dont think Irene is going to be a problem.

By the way, NOAA released their projections for this season, and the storm occurrences are projected to be higher than usual.

NOAA RAISES THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

They are predicting up to 9 hurricanes, with 5 expected to be major!

There are some interesting links if you follow them on that page.

Looks like little Irene is getting it's act together.

It went from an impressive tropical depression to a weak tropical storm then weakened back into a depression now it's a tropical storm again, and getting better organized.

Winds up to 50 in latest advisory.

The latest track is interesting. Looks like it may just skim the coast:


Definately need to watch it though

We have Tropical Storm Jose out there now threatening Mexico....
Tropical Storm JOSE Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 222359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 10 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES
LANDFALL.

Also there's a massive blob off the coast of Africa that needs watching, looks like business is picking up once again....must say I've been grateful for the reprieve we've had so far.

Here is a very good example of why you should put very little faith in NHC advisories.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

"THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER... FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL."

What kind of garbage is this? The poor work that has come out of the NHC in the past couple of years continues to amaze me. They are so badly overstating storm strengths anymore that the advisories they issue are basically meaningless. I believe it was the 2nd storm of the season that made landfall was listed at 70mph even though there was absolutely no data to back it up. Highest gust in a buoy that the storm passed directly over didn't even hit 40mph. Pressure didn't justify it and neither did the satellite image. There was another "tropical storm" this year where it was upgraded to a storm even though the NHC was unable to find a closed circulation. Normal people call that a tropical wave.

If you look through the archives for last year you won't find a single sustained wind at any observation station in the U.S. to match the reported storm strength of any landfalling hurricane last year.

This is honestly pathetic. 1001mb low and they are saying 50mph sustained winds. Want to bet you'd be lucky to find a 40mph gust?

what do you think is their motive for over exagerating these storms Indy?
Does the NHC have an agenda???

They could simply be bad at their job. I doubt that is the cast. It could be as simple as a desperate need for attention. It could be trying to keep fear in the public by making them think the storms are worse than they are. Or it would be a case to manipulate public opinion into thinking the seasons are getting worse as a result of global warming. Its the same nonsense the NWS pulled when they adjusted the windchill tables a few years back to make the numbers look significantly warmer. The stepping stone to this problem was Hurricane Andrew. The NHC used Andrew as an excuse to change how they reported hurricane wind strength. They however are getting worse about it. They have really lowered the bar for what gets upgraded to a named storm and they have greatly adjusted wind speeds upwards when it in reality isn't justified.

what's your thoughts on the wave that just became Tropical Depression 12 over the Bahamas? This one is pretty close to Florida, but I'm hearing it's possible that it may become a Tropical Storm or Hurricane before targetting somewhere in Florida... a little too close for my comfort...
Tropical Depression 12 forms over southeastern Bahamas
Image from Accuweather

as for the NHC, i think it could be a bit of all that you mentioned, but especially to give the public the perception that things are not normal this year, it seems everytime I turn on the weather, they're speaking of some record or the other being broken...kind of almost like they might be wishing for it? Do you know if they have any programs in planning that might require extra funding and increase attention might get it for them?


[edit on 8-23-2005 by worldwatcher]

I would think the more activity there was the more federal money they would get. Certainly having a "stronger" storm hit a state would increase the chances of federal aid coming in.

Now on the new system here is the latest satellite image...




Not sure I would have classified that as a depression. In the old conservative days of the NHC that would have been a tropical wave. The model plots in that link you provided certainly don't look promising. Haven't seen the strength forecast for this system yet. It is over warm water so that should impact it. Guess I should look at the water vapor image to see if there is anything obvious in the area that could keep it from strengthening.

Indy does this map help you any?
and btw forgive if i'm interpreting this thing wrong, i'm very much the amateur weather nut

cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

looking at that image, I see no winds or troughs that would steer this thing away from Florida, so I guess it's inevitable that we're going to get wet, but how intense will this be? NHC says winds are around 30mph, how much stronger will it get? should people be starting some type of preparation...it's literally almost on us, so I don't think there would be much time for preparations if this thing suddenly intensifies...

This new depression is actually the remnants of TD 10 (which WAS a well defined TD)....


Also, that big blob that came off of Africa a couple days ago has a well defined circulation, just not that much convection (more than yesterday though). Still, if it holds, it could be a depression by tomorrow (maybe tonight).

[edit on 23-8-2005 by ThatsJustWeird]

It would be nicer if the data moved a little further west Does Florida need rain right now?

well my lawn is pretty green and we've had our regular doses of afternoon showers, don't think I need much more rain here, but it's not like I have a choice.

From what I am gathering there are two main options, one which takes it across the peninsula in south florida somewhere as Tropical Storm and then it becomes a hurricane in the gulf... and another where it skirts the coast of the peninsula heading up to the Carolinas.... your guesses are as good as mines at this time.

i might just stock up on some batteries tomorrow...just in case.

My advice is to get, keep and use rechargable batteries. Just make sure they are all charged up before the storm hits. That way you don't have the rush on supplies.

ThatsJustWeird... Yeah saw the system. Look pretty good. I think it needs to get a tad further west because the waters east are pretty cool. I think thats why you see the lack of convection (getting better though) and why the cape verde season has been non existant to this point.

well my local news are all interrupting shows to get people to watch for the 5pm advisory....

and then I found this, which this model puts it right over me....hopefully as depression or weak tropical storm and nothing more
but they are saying tropical storm or hurricane watches maybe issued later tonight.
www.hurricanecity.com...

the newest map from Accuweather
hurricane.accuweather.com...


we're looking at soon to be T.S or Hurricane Katrina who will more than likely make two landfalls in Florida

this is going to be bad if it moves slows, it would have time to strenghten, plus it would give us flooding rains......

and not to be the alarmist or anything but forecasts models are suggesting having 3 tropical systems to talk about within the next few days.

oh well, it was just a matter of time for us to be talking hurricanes again..

[edit on 8-23-2005 by worldwatcher]