Your outlook on the middle east, and the future

Any well informed individual can see the daily effects of the war on terror. It's nearly every week that we hear new news of car bombings, kidnappings, and massive military operations to uproot suspected insurgents. With news reports like that it can be very easy to become focused on the "present day situation", and easily forget that eventually this war will come to an end... (allthough it is hard to put a time frame on events like this.)

with that in mind, how do you invision the middle east AFTER the war on terror? 5 years from now? 20 years from now? As long as it's a post war prediction, feel free to include it. Do you see a bright future for the middle east, or do you see a grim one on the horizon.


I too will be participating in this thread, but I'm just working on my response as it's rather long. I'll post it when I've finished it.

For the most part though, I'll just include that I see "alternative energy" as a major problem on the middle easts horizon. Eventually I believe we will reach a "break through" in alternative energies ("cold water energy" may be it too). As we step further, and further away from our dependency on fossil fuels, the "oil producing countries" will begin to feel the hurt all around, as they begin to lose their "ace in the hole". I also do see democracy working in the middle east as well... allthough it seems rather bleek now. Whats going on now is a really dramatic change for the "older" (28-50 year olds) generation of "middle easterners", but as the younger generation gets older (18, and below), they will be able to say "I remember my nations first free election", or "I remember the first day I was allowed to go to school" (For the girls). At first I thought of major resentment towards Americans, Brits, and other western nations, but I think if it exists afer the war, that it will fade with later generations as time goes on...

Anyhow, I'll post my actual response later, as its still in the works. It's 4AM so I'm probly gonna go catch some Z's first. lol.


Please note that this thread is here for CIVILIZED discussion. Everyone is welcome to post, but please do try, and keep all banter to a minimum. Leave all of that for another thread.

[edit on 6/15/05 by microcosm]

The only hope for "true" peace in the middle east is if there is a stand by moderate muslims against Arab racism and fascism. Too often murder and genocide is over-looked or excused by the Arab masses, in Sudan for example where Arab muslims are committing genocide on non-Arab muslims motivated by a racisist idea of what a muslim should be. Hatred for non-Arabs, Christians, Jews, and moderates is the common theme in the schools and pop-culture. The ideals that suggest that if Isreal makes land concessions or the west makes political and monetary concessions that somehow the Arab world will settle down is absurd. They are ingaged in a struggle for their own existance but can't see the enemy in the mirror. That may sound harsh but it's my take, sorry.

As for the loss of cashflow from oil exports do to "altenative" fuels or the wells running dry, well I think that would be great for that region. The only thing supporting some of those repressive regimes is their oil profits, and if that's gone so are they. A shift from oil exporting to an industial or travel based economy would be a real push towards a feeling of independence for many Arabs. An economy that favors small business and entrepreneurism is exactly what is needed in my opinion and "Oil Regimes" do not offer that.

As for what responsibility the west has in all this? None. Except to guarantee the saftey of their own citizens. I don't care what excuse for the killing you give, it's not a west vs. muslim probem, it's a muslim vs. muslim problem. If you say that the west or the Isreali's have the responsibility then you are basicaly saying the Arabs are a force only to be acted upon and have no power of their own. That is an insult to those peoples, they have as much power and voice as any other group on the planet. Real change for them will come only when they demand it. And I don't believe flying planes into builings or bording buses with a backpack full of nails and a bomb is demanding change, it's murder. The conflicts in Darfur, the Phillipines and Africa involving muslims have nothing to do with the west or Isreal, christians or jews, so the people of the middle east need to get over those excuses.

As for how the middle east will turn out after the war on terror, well it's an easy answer for me. I see the middle east having only two possible paths;
1) to become hustling bustling modern democracies like we see in Turkey, where it can be a Theocratic Democracy but still be a responsible govenment of and for the people.
2)to decend further into poverty and chaos untill starvation and war have ravaged it into near non-existance. A hell hole that is so intent on self-destruction that it will be unfixable.

Microcosm, I don't know if thats what you were looking for or not but thats what I had, sorry if I was alittle off-topic in the beginning.

with that in mind, how do you invision the middle east AFTER the war on terror? 5 years from now? 20 years from now? As long as it's a post war prediction, feel free to include it.

You couldn't have answered the question any better.

I'm still working on, and thinking up my response as I go along. I'll have my view up soon.

I personally would like to see prediction #1 (as per your post) fulfilled, as oppossed to #2. Allthough, I'd much rather see more secular gov't in the middle east, as opposed to a theocratic one... allthough islam is "the majority" throughout the middle east; christians, shieks, hindu's, jews, and everything in between exist there too...

On a side note, anyone, and everyone is free to contribute as much as they want to this thread. You don't have to write an essay; a simple "I think it'll be a great, thriving, democratic area", or "I think it'll be a third world hell hole" along with your reasoning why; will do just fine. I'm eager to hear what your views are for after the war...

[edit on 6/15/05 by microcosm]

[edit on 6/15/05 by microcosm]

You have 3 primary religious groups in the Middle East that are at odds with each other.......

They all claim significant reason to hold that same peice of land by a given deity and/or dogma of each religion where the authority or directive of each faith cannot be debated

You have factions of groups infighting among themselves in an attempt to take power in a given country...

You have land of little or no value except for the oil under it that everyone in the World's developed societies need...........

Odds are the future of the Middle East will be the starting point to the down fall of society in general with the next WorldWar............

I think the situation in the middle east is going to suck the whole world into a major confrontation between polarized ideologies. We can already see the rift growing further and further apart. Secular liberal westernized philosophy vs. conservative Islamic philosophy. Each side believes their way of life is the best.
The difference is tolerable if both sides minded their own business and went their respective ways. But the problem lies where the U.S. is imposing their way of life on the citizens of the Muslim countries and the extremist Muslims view the secular world as the 'Great Satan'. This whole rift will be presented under a fundamentalist Christian vs. extremist Islamic facade. Moderation is the key but there are enough of those that dont fit into this category that make it a threat to the rest of the world.
There is much more to this and I feel that this is only the beginning.
I've documented my feelings regarding the future in my blog.

journalofthelastdays.blogspot.com...

Odds are the future of the Middle East will be the starting point to the down fall of society in general with the next WorldWar............

I tend to agree with this assessment. I think we're in for a whole lot more blood before we win anything, if we win at all. The reason why I included that last part, is that the enemy is firmly indoctrinated to their cause and we aren't. That puts us at a significant disadvantage in maintaining support for war efforts. Our commitment is also undermined by anti-American world views.

But, assuming things go our way, I still see the war expanding with time. In fact, last night on both Fox and MSNBC they were talking about Osama in Iran and the need to do something there, and the problems in North Korea and the possible need to go in there. We are also not the only ones fighting terrorism and other ills around the world. These ills have not exploded yet, but I fear they will in time.

In the end, it might end up as a global and expanded war. Despite the looming threat of bird flu, my secret hope is that it will be just the right lethality to get our attention and avert any global war - like a benefit in disguise. Death by disease is bad, but death by war is worse. But that's just me.

That being said, the devastation of a global war would take some time to recover from. International transportation would be affected, as would global trade. It would knock us back a number of years in development. It would also tend to equalize the world (and perhaps advance some 3rd world countries who were able to somehow avoid the worst of the conflict). In the end - after a horrible period that no one in their right mind would want to live through - we might end up with a better world for everyone. How long it would take us to get there is the real unknown.

with that in mind, how do you envision the middle east AFTER the war on terror? 5 years from now? 20 years from now?

5 years from now:

Iraq: Much like Afghanistan is now. Still will have it’s flare-ups, but for the most part, the insurgency will be suppressed.

Afghanistan: Much quieter, and moving on.

Iran: Rebuilding nuclear facilities after an Israeli bombing run (silently sanctioned by the US), and increasing it’s sponsorship of terrorism.

Syria: Strangely playing ball as Iran puts it’s head in the noose, Syria will try and keep it’s nose fairly clean at this time.

Israel: Gets a UN slap on the wrist for the Iranian bombing, and has about a month or so of retaliatory suicide bombers, after the incident.

Jeb or Hillary in the White House (either is equally scary). Neither will have the option of pulling out of the Mideast. Hybrid cars become more and more popular as OPEC continues raising prices, to maintain their profits with less barrels being sold. Newer tech is slowly tested that is even more efficient than the hybrids.

10 years from now:

Iraq: Now used as a US staging ground, as by now, OPEC nations are feeling the bite of alternative fuels, etc. and are turning on their neighbors to increase their holdings.

Most nations will likely be embroiled in the conflict, with nations like Jordan, Syria, Egypt, etc. possibly taking advantage of the brouhaha to attack Israeli territory. At first, they’ll hold some, as in previous such attacks, but then get kicked back out again. Iran will likely be the first to use chemical or nuclear weapons on US targets in Iraq, resulting in more widespread uses of such weapons in other conflicts. The India/Pakistan problem will likely also surface with India allied with the US, and the US turning on Pakistan when it’s continued sponsorship of terrorism is fully brought to light.

China will likely take care of it’s little red-headed stepchild, North Korea at this point, and simply annex it. The US will be too busy to really care or interfere and is sick of Kim anyhow. Russia will continue to have it’s own terrorist problems, not bothering to take action outside it’s own borders.

Pretty much this all combined would likely be regarded as WWIII….with so many involved. Any nuke actions would likely be isolated and rare, with sheer limited numbers keeping the problem from being an Armageddon of sorts.

20 years...

Let's just hope we make it...hmm..???

All just opinion of course, but I’d wager we’re going to see a LOT more warfare and on more fronts, within the next decade in that region…. I know you asked for a POST WOT idea, but to be honest, I don't think that's very soon in our future....