How long will it take for China to become a stronger military power then the U.S?

Originally posted by futuretense

Does the current generation in America recognize and have the will to defend their life, liberty and happiness?..............we have experienced prosperty since the close of WW2 for so long that you wonder how complacent and apathic we are as a country today...........If we continue to become an ever increasing society of the irresponsible and uneducated, eventually we will be ripe for domination by an outside source............this is not an immediate issue but 50 to 60 years out?...........

I would agree with you on all those points, but I feel a stronger EU, China and India will emerge a lot faster than 50 to 60 years. Could you see the Taiwan situation dragging out another 10 years? Never mind when the oil finally starts pumping from the Caspian Sea and that area begins to emerge globally.

The key is if the US military becomes so stretched as to become unable to deal with an internal or external emergency. Relocating troops from any point in the world will only lead to that area becoming unstable.

The worst scenario would be a draft. There is a high possibility of it spiralling into a Vietnam syndrome situation. When that happens, possibly China will see it's chance. You think that everybody will realise their American-ness and pull-together at the last moment to save the day? That only happens in the movies.

Originally posted by WestPoint23
Maybe you don't understand the above post its not possible under current tech and situations for the world to support another 2 billion people having our living standards. Its natures laws survival of the fittest and natural selection.

Nemisis envaribly follows Huberis....

FUTURTENSE: I agree almost completely. Conservation is the key and our only way out. Or else, we are systemically playing musical chairs and nothing is going to get done.

Don't think you will have to nuke China to get the population down , you can rely on Mother Nature to do that , there will be a virus that will reduce the population , this has happened over the centuries and we are long overdue for it.

How can you say that? No one knows what will happen in the future. Just think of all the other things that people have said will never happen, but did.

Yeah, but I was never one of them, and I'm always right!

Hey... it ain't braggin' if you're tellin' the truth!

A few things that I've noticed about China are,

They will be hosting the Olympics in 2008. Not a big deal. The bit that has me a little bit peeved is that one of Chinas main way of making money is be counterfiting brands and selling them on the open market. The Police let this happen. Now I'm sure they will make some serious money when the Olympics is on.

I also find it amusing that through China/US import/export, the China makes something like 50billion US dollars from American consumers while America in return only make around 2billion yearly.

What I'm getting at is that I feel China is buildind it self up by alot of $ and these are two examples I think will are helping it.
I give them around ten years then we will start seeing fireworks.

Originally posted by Die Trying
I also find it amusing that through China/US import/export, the China makes something like 50billion US dollars from American consumers while America in return only make around 2billion yearly.

S A Y N O T O W A L M A R T !

Interesting comment about the branding of products in China.....

Allow me to be candid about how the Chinese did business with one major US corp from a business partner of mine based on first hand experience......

I won't disclose the company but they do a very robust business in network technology.......

My partner was with a team that introduced oversea production of their devices via Chinese labor to increase their profit margins but also to market their products and services to a huge developing Internet market in the pacific rim..........

So they expose their patents and product production to the Chinese..........after a while they end up seeing competiting products in the market place there violating their copyrights and patents and with a much more attractive price point to boot..........

This US company sits down with Chinese officials and calls their bluff..........China admits what they did and then the US company wants to sue them...........

China says go right ahead...........but if you want your products to be sold in our market place???.............Then you best leave us and our copied private branding alone.........

The US company left China with their tail between their legs just willing to let the Chinese do what they want in order to have this market..........

What's the use of having that market if they can undercut you with private copies and there is nothing you can do about it??

Fair trade..........hmmm.............

Just thought you might be interested in hearing a real life story of this.

Well I have to say it is refreshing to see the usual "US is evil" and "the US will nuke China to hell" banter hasn't reared it's head (yet).

A few comments:

1) The US and China WILL have a show down. I rarely agree with ECK, but his opinion and those of the artical he pointed out are spot on. The confrontation will be over resources (most likely oil) however this does not mean that will be what triggers the showdown. It could be that China or the US come to the conclusion that they must strike, and simply manipulate some unrelated geopolitical event so that they might have the political edge.

2) China will take AT LEAST 25 years to catch up with the US military - and that is assuming at some point their economy comes close to that of US. China has many times the man power, but are far FAR behind in both technological research and implimentation of advanced technology. The US not only researches the most advanced technology, but also procures it in large ammounts. China is far behind in the 2 most important aspects of modern transcontinental war - air and sea power. Their airforce, while slightly bigger, is hopelessly outdated compared to the US. More important however is the naval force. If this war is over oil (or food/and other resource) China is going to need to be able to control the seas. This just isn't going to happen anytime soon. China has yet to come out with a single aircraft carrier, and is far behind in their submarine force.

3) If some of you think the current middle east policy is just about terrorism, well, your wrong. It is about terrorism, it is about taking out dangerous dictators, but it is also about gaining a foothold in what should be the most important region in the world over the next quartter century.

Look at a map, and notice which countries the US has become allies with, which countries we are building up relations with. It is clear to anyone who cares to try and look - the US is isolating China from the ME. We are implomenting the containment strategy we used on the USSR through the cold war. We are boxing them in.

American Mad Man, you are absolutly right when you say that the U.S. is trying to cut China off from their oil resources. Believe it or not people, there already exists a cold war and it is just under the surface. China gets most of their oil from Iran and Sudan, which is another reason why America did not do anything to stop the government from their genocide campaign in the Darfor region (my spelling sucks).

Originally posted by futuretense
Allow me to be candid about how the Chinese did business with one major US corp from a business partner of mine based on first hand experience......

Thanks for that, it was very interesting.

It isn't that hopeless however. I work for a Japanese company who have many manufacturing plants in China. While China dominate the low-tech end of the business, they have no hope of keeping up with us on the hi-tech side.

Using novel ideas to ensure the product can't be copied, such as 3D mounting in epoxy resin, as well as bare chips, by the time they have figured it out in China, we have new products on the way. Plus Chinese themselves know their products are cheap knock-offs. Any Chinese person with some money will always buy a Japanese car over a Chinese one. So, good luck to your friend, it can be done.

The same level of low quality applys to military hardware being copied in China at the minute. While they can mass produce similar looking products, I would be interested to know how long they would last in a battlefield situation.

As far as US military superiority, history tells us of a far more technically advanced Japanese Imperial army getting bogged down fighting the Chinese. Air superiority is a fine concept, but China is a big place to hold air space superiority over. The naval superiority is maybe impressive in blue water, but getting close to a coastline bristling with missiles as well as a reasonably well equipped brown water navy would be tricky.

So saying when exactly China would have a stronger military is quite difficult, but saying they will have a military at least capable of going toe-to-toe with the US might not be so far off?

Also, if you were China wouldn´t ypu be angry if some foreign power tried to cut you off from some resource that can benefit your economic growth? I know I would be angry. Also, I give China 30-40 years to catch up with the U.S. And if there was a war between the U.S. and China I think that we would have a HARD time fighting them. Although, I do believe that they would have a harder time fighting on American soil just for the simple fact that we have a right to bear arms.

Originally posted by Phoenix13
Also, if you were China wouldn´t ypu be angry if some foreign power tried to cut you off from some resource that can benefit your economic growth? I know I would be angry. Also, I give China 30-40 years to catch up with the U.S. And if there was a war between the U.S. and China I think that we would have a HARD time fighting them. Although, I do believe that they would have a harder time fighting on American soil just for the simple fact that we have a right to bear arms.

OK, first, they are not angry - they are aware of the situation. Frankly, if they were in our shoes, they would do the exact same thing. People need to understand that everyone doesn't just get along. China needs oil. The US needs oil. India needs oil. Europe needs oil.

The US is at the advantage at the moment, and will be looking to cut everyone else off, or at least try and control what everyone else gets. The rest of the world is waiting for the moment to be right to knock the US down, and exert their own will over oil.

It's that simple.

As far as China catching up...

Their main problem is 3 fold.

1) Their economy is tiny compared to the US.

2) They have no home made weapon systems that can compare to the US.

3) Their current armed forces is already behind the US.

Frankly, untill #1 and #2 are equal, #3 will never be equal. Further more, their economy is not as solid as one might think... In fact, it reminds me very much of Japans...Just check out their bad debts in commercial realestate. I give them half a century to truelly be on equal terms. However, I think by that time the US will have taken China on and won already.


As far as the war goes, forget China fighting on American soil. It simply is not possable for them to do for the forseeable future. They do not have the logistics to do it, much less a Navy to bring soldiers over.

No...If the US and China went to war, it would most likely be over Taiwon. China attacks Taiwon, the US comes to her aid and forces China back to the mainland. The USN kicks ass and takes names, with help from the airforce. Then the USAF takes over for a while...I'm talking months of just complete bombardment. Then the hard part...Fighting over 100 million trained men. I doubt we could ever take the mainland - it's just too big and they have too many men - but we could take important cities and force a surrender.

In a war, that would be ideal for the US. The other half of it is we lose most of our ground forces and have a stale mate. Either way though, China is hit harder then the US, and that is somewhat of a victory in it's self.

Using logorithms, it shall take China 20+ years to catch up to America in GDP however in PPP, China would have long surpassed US but GDP per person will take much more than 16 years to catch up to the US but if GDP per person catch up to the US then China will have a GDP some 4 times larger than that of US.

China is playing catch up right now, we don't have any power projection beyond our borders and won't for a few years until our first and second CVNs are finished (One in refit, one in early phase of construction, they can't challenge American Nimitzs). It'll take more time to catch up to US militarily than in GDP because currently China deploys a stance where even though foreign tech is better, we would like to use indegnous technology and at most, improve the foreign tech. In naval planning, China set the timeline in 3 periods where one has ended 4 years ago. THe first period is when China shall build up a brown water navy and build assets within the first Island chain (Aleutians, Kuriles, Ryukyus, Taiwan, Philippines, and Greater Sunda islands) . Then from 2010-2035 China shall build a green water navy designed to work within the second island chain (Bonins, Guam, Marianas, and Palau islands) and from 2035~ China shall build a large blue water navy capable of deploying to anywhere in the world and gain strategic assets (bases, facilities, ports, permissions, naval allies)in every corner of the world.

[edit on 14-6-2005 by COWlan]

Originally posted by American Mad Man

No...If the US and China went to war, it would most likely be over Taiwon. China attacks Taiwon, the US comes to her aid and forces China back to the mainland. The USN kicks ass and takes names, with help from the airforce. Then the USAF takes over for a while...I'm talking months of just complete bombardment. Then the hard part...Fighting over 100 million trained men. I doubt we could ever take the mainland - it's just too big and they have too many men - but we could take important cities and force a surrender.

I agree with the USN and USAF taking control and taking out bases and industries that supply the Chinese armed forces. I also think a good way to destroy the chinese army would be to use their own agression against them, let them come to your defencive positions, then destroy them with sheer firepower. I'm sure your Marines would like that job.

Also can someone give me an idea what the Chinese industries are like. For example in WW2 the US armys main advantage was that the countrys industry was behind the troops, intact and keeping the troops supplyed.
Now if China and the US go at industry is going to play a big part in it, because of the sheer scale in the war. I feel that the Chinese industry is quite open to bombing. Could they keep supplying their troops, or could the US create a sort of siege on troops cut off from supply and force surrender?

[edit on 14-6-2005 by Die Trying]

China does not have the force projection necessary to bring the war on our shores.
It would be us bombing their Country, and however millions and millions of solders they have the easier it would be to destroy them. Like I have always said the U.S. could just contaminate their food supply with chemical weapons and destroy the agricultural farms/centers. Try feeding 1.2 billion people with no food and supplies. Than would take care of their 100 million man army very quickly. It would be a war of attrition who can keep their forces supplied with everything necessary wins.

If the U.S does decide to strike a blow against China, I think they would use a biological weapon and make it look like a natural phenomena to avoid a direct confrontation.Let the virus make a crippling blow to China and then act like the good guys and say we found a cure.If you look at the map, China is surrounded by North Korea,Russia,and India so I doubt they would care if it spread to these countries infact they would probably be hoping for it....

That's what I would do if I were them.

[edit on 15-6-2005 by thecry]

Originally posted by Die Trying

I agree with the USN and USAF taking control and taking out bases and industries that supply the Chinese armed forces. I also think a good way to destroy the chinese army would be to use their own agression against them, let them come to your defencive positions, then destroy them with sheer firepower. I'm sure your Marines would like that job.

The thing is, we can do the same damage without letting them go anywhere. As of now, China can't project it's ground forces to any significant US base. And even if they could, why let them? You never EVER want to be on the defensive when you have the option to go offensive. Chinas traditional ground forces (tanks, artillery, etc) is pretty much useless against the US. The only advantage they have is in numbers, and frankly the best thing the US could hope for would be to get into a head to head traditional ground war.

Frankly, no one in the world has the ability to go head to head with the US like that. US airpower and logistical systems are far too good. All those ground assets would be cut down by the USAF and advanced artillery. China knows this - they aren't stupid enough to send 2 million men out against M1 tanks and B-52 bombers. What they would do (assuming that their capabillities are close to what they are today) is try to draw the US into an occupation of China, and then use their tens of millions of trained soldiers in a guarilla war. That is their best bet at least...Because their air aand naval assets will be obliterated in the opening month of the war.

Also can someone give me an idea what the Chinese industries are like. For example in WW2 the US armys main advantage was that the countrys industry was behind the troops, intact and keeping the troops supplyed.
Now if China and the US go at industry is going to play a big part in it, because of the sheer scale in the war. I feel that the Chinese industry is quite open to bombing. Could they keep supplying their troops, or could the US create a sort of siege on troops cut off from supply and force surrender?

You hit the nail right on the head here. Logistics is THE most important aspect of war. Strategy and tactics are worthless if your troops get stranded without food, water, and equipment. If we went to war with China (and of course I assume this does not go nuclear, because in that case the US loses about 30 million people and China about 500 million) the US would enjoy the same advantage it enjoyed in WWII.

The USN and USAF would destroy all industrial capacity of China right after they took down Chinas defenses. This is yet another reason why at the moment they could not go head to head with the US - they have no ability to take out targets in the US other then using nuclear weapons. Since the US has about a 100-1 advantage in nuclear warheads, and can deliver them all to China, and do it with pin point precision, China would not dare go nuclear. In fact, most of Chinas nuclear warheads are in the form of conventional 'dumb' bombs - all of which are worthless against the US mainland because their bombers would never reach the US.

China is happy selling America and Canada everything at 70% less than we can do ourselves.


Dallas

I wouldn't countl Communism out just yet, Nikita Kruschev said in the 1960s that they woul bury America and never fire a shot; he's damn well doing it, and China has always been a communist pawn for hire.
Banjo Guru

2) China will take AT LEAST 25 years to catch up with the US military -.

I agree with most of what is said in this post, but I still say Hillary will sell us down the river, just like Slick Willy did.
Banjo Guru

Originally posted by Where2Hide2006
I think America will do something to stop, or at least hinder the Chinese Expansion and the Chinese Economy.


It would be perfect for America, if some kind of Super-Deadly Virus broke out in Asia that killed off about 1/3 of its population. That should set them Chinese back a few decades ... and decrease their demand for Oil.

But then... they would probably call in the Billions upon Billions of American Debt that they have bought since 9/11... when we needed it most, and then 2 years later when Japan stopped buying it.

what a shock when i see these words as a Chinese myself......