PEAK OIL: Get Local Now!

Many of the experts agree that we have hit peak oil this year, or will by 2007. This means that drastic changes to the way we live here in the US are on the way.

One of the biggest concerns I have studying this issue is food. Food production, shipment and distribution. If fuel became too expensive for anyone other than the elites to use - which will happen - acquiring food is going to be one bitch of a problem. Why? Because corporations have bought most of the farms out and food is grown in certain areas then shipped to the many locales.

One of the biggest things we can do for ourselves RIGHT NOW is to start figuring out ways of producing our own foods. Get yourselves as self sustaining as possible. When that axe falls and Wal Mart and the big grocery chains fail, you will not be sorry you prepared.

Remarks in Hudson, NY
January 8, 2005
James Howard Kunstler

My last three books were concerned with the physical arrangement of life in our nation, in particular suburban sprawl, the most destructive development pattern the world has ever seen, and perhaps the greatest misallocation of resources the world has ever known.
The world - and of course the US - now faces an epochal predicament: the global oil production peak and the arc of depletion that follows. We are unprepared for this crisis of industrial civilization. We are sleepwalking into the future.

The global peak oil production event will change everything about how we live. It will challenge all of our assumptions. It will compel us to do things differently - whether we like it or not.
www.kunstler.com...

[edit on 19-09-2003 by EastCoastKid]

The Corporations have been planning for this for decades, just because they kept all of us in the dark doesn't mean they weren't working behind the scenes to ensure thier profits for decades to come. Cmon you know how they think, never do something beneficial for the populace until they actually have to.

www.howstuffworks.com...

Blimps are the key to sustainable development and UPS and Fedex are currently sinking in alot of money into this an other projects to make sure they have the tools they need going forward to keep meeting demand. A company without demand for it's products/services is worthless, leaving alot of people out of work and making a huge dent in the economy thus forcing other business's into bankruptsy and more people out of work etc etc.

However things are not going fast enough and we will hit some snags in the road. Maybe the snag will be another depression, an Economic Stagnation(like Japan during the 90s), a major Recession or worst case scenario a full Collapse. Personally I'm don't like making extreme predictions as they are usually overly-hyped and dead wrong but I'll go on a limb and say Rural and Suburban living is going to become obsolete very quickly, already some of my family is planning to move into the City due to the cost of fuel, allthough they will be giving one cost up for another(property tax, another mortgage etc) people ARE starting to wake up.

And also there is the rise of the Hybrid, it could delay the peak by a few years(I'm guesstimating the peek to happen around 2014-2018 NOT 2006, I have spent quite a while studying this and the UN and Greenpeace reports on this subject seem like the most plausible scenarios(no I don't have a link It was in the Greenpeace Newsletter))

csmonitor.com...




[edit on 21-5-2005 by sardion2000]

[edit on 21-5-2005 by sardion2000]

A big part of the problem in trying to project when world peak will hit is that other countries (OPEC nations) are anything but transparent in what they have and what they face. So, it's hard to tell.

With regards to natural gas, Kunstler points out that the natural gas just runs out immediately - unlike oil wells. So, you can't really predict how long they have left.

On work - when oil becomes too expensive for the majority of us - We better all be close enuff physically to our workplaces, otherwise, bye-bye jobs. Right now I could probly road march to and from work if I had to - and yes, the business I'm in will still be here come what may. (I'm lucky in that respect.) Alot of folks are gonna lose their jobs either from oil shortages and lack of demand, or from the simple inability to get to work.

Something to ponder...

[edit on 19-09-2003 by EastCoastKid]

Oh I absolutely agree ECK. It is very difficult to predict, for all we know the peak won't happen for another 30 years. Actually I am kind of relieved this event is coming as we are poising ourselves with our Oil Addiction(and Poisioning ME by making my Asthmatic lungs even worse). Here's to hoping for a gradual decline(not betting on it though)

[edit on 21-5-2005 by sardion2000]

Right now I could probly road march to and from work if I had to

Lucky you. I got a 28 mile round trip :O

[edit on 21-5-2005 by sardion2000]

Originally posted by sardion2000

Sardion's comments disappeared! I was commenting on his close proximity to work.

Lucky you!

Anyone that's got a 28-mile commute (one way) or longer is gonna be in trouble. Hate to say that, but.. Is there any way you could move closer to your job?

My job's a 10 minute drive (in traffic) from where I live. If I rode a bike it would be a bit longer, but not too bad.

My mom lives several states away. It really worries me and I wish she would move back here. I worry if something terrible to happen we would be cut-off from each other and my other family who are much closer.

[edit on 19-09-2003 by EastCoastKid]

The world is NOT running out of oil anytime soon. Canada has more oil than Saudi Arabia in its oil sands deposits, and the US has vast deposits of oil shales. Venezuala has heavy oil deposits. Oil may get more expensive, but there is lots of it. See www.radford.edu..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> www.radford.edu...

Originally posted by AlexofSkye
The world is NOT running out of oil anytime soon. Canada has more oil than Saudi Arabia in its oil sands deposits, and the US has vast deposits of oil shales.

If this is true, you might want to let the world's experts know about it.

Venezuala has heavy oil deposits. Oil may get more expensive, but there is lots of it.

With BushCo.'s treatment of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela won't be inclined to do us any favors any time soon.

Originally posted by AlexofSkye
The world is NOT running out of oil anytime soon. Canada has more oil than Saudi Arabia in its oil sands deposits, and the US has vast deposits of oil shales. Venezuala has heavy oil deposits. Oil may get more expensive, but there is lots of it. See www.radford.edu..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> www.radford.edu...

Not to ridicule your post, but what you said is the point. Oil will become more expensive. A lot more. To further this, oil shale costs a lot more to extract and produces less net energy in the process. Fuel will skyrocket. No one who knows about peak oil - honestly - debates the fact that oil will still be here. The problem is, that passing the peak means energy supplies begin a decline that exponentially increases in cost because demand continues to increase as supply drops dramatically. It isn't just your car that needs gas. Everything that costs money relies on energy to have. Everything will escalate and total havoc will break out when people cannot make ends meet. Never mind producing your own food. Most people do not have enough land to sustain them, nor enough ready fuel to even heat their homes without oil and gas. There is not enough trees, nor enough infrastructure to provide energy from them. New technologies are not mainstream enough to make a transition for the whole world to utilize them. We are in for a world of hurt and I think survival of the fittest will be the rule of law.

Excellent points, Ben. The interconnectedness that you covered is something that is lost on a lot of people. Our entire industrial base is built upon layers and layers of oil and gas use. When demand is far greater than supply/output, things are gonna get ruff. Gas is gonna be too expensive for the common man to afford, period. The government will co-opt supply to keep the military machine going and we will all pretty much be left to fend for ourselves. I just hope local governments recognize this and plan for it. That's our best hope.

My posting was intended to point out some facts that I believe are not being given sufficient weight by the alarmists out there. These facts may be found in the links I provided, but there are lots more of a corroborative nature, if you do a little searching. The responses I've seen to my posting unfortunately are fact-poor and based on supposition and speculation.

May I respond as follows?

If this is true, you might want to let the world's experts know about it.

I don't like responding to simple sarcasm, the use of which is unworthy in any discussion. However, here are links to a report out of Radford University and the US Department of Energy. The US Government has published a document called the "Strategic Significance of America's Oil Shale Resource". My apologies, but I couldn't make the link work, but do a Google search on that title and you can get it.

www.radford.edu..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> www.radford.edu...

Are these folks expert enough? If not, just do a search on "unconventional oil" and you'll get lots more.

Venezuela won't be inclined to do us any favors any time soon.

Transient political issues are irrelevant. Chavez won't last forever. The oil will still be there. And political issues are not an issue for the very large Canadian resources. See www.growley.com...

Oil will become more expensive. A lot more. To further this, oil shale costs a lot more to extract and produces less net energy in the process. Fuel will skyrocket.

Speculation. Oil already has become more expensive - to the point where billions are being invested in new Canadian oil sands plants. There are, however, countervailing possibilities. For example, when any commodity becomes more expensive, consumers become more efficient about using it, or find alternatives. Do I know where prices will go? Not at all - but neither do you, and such bald assertions are meaningless. There are other factors impacting the price of oil. It may well drop, for example, if there is a global recession.

Everything will escalate and total havoc will break out... We are in for a world of hurt and I think survival of the fittest will be the rule of law.

Oh, come on. Perhaps you're not old enough to remember the "oil shock" of the early 70's, but I am. Even in the US, there were lineups at the gas pumps. But the apocalyptic consequences you predict simply did not happen. What did happen was more complex, but essentially, we all adjusted to it. Economic dislocation? Sure, there was some. What else is new? The world is a very dynamic place.

The interconnectedness that you covered is something that is lost on a lot of people.

I don't disagree with this statement per se, but I assure you I am well aware of interconnectedness. But focussing on interconnectedness to the exclusion of other factors isn't doing justice to the issue. What other factors?

Innovation - the ability to find new sources of energy.
Adapation - tolerance for higher prices, the ability to use less
Productivity - are oil shales and oil sands expensive sources. Yes, at present. But you can bet there are lots of industry experts focussed on making it less so.

While I do agree, and many others as well, that we have or are about to hit 'peak oil', I still believe there is enough oil for many, many years to come. However, as pointed out earlier in the thread and elsewhere, the cost of fuel will go up and never come back down. But I don't think this will be as negative as it sounds.

I think that in the future, we will see a shift from sprawling communities where everything has to be 'trucked' in to more close knit communities. Much like the villages you have in european countries where the produce is grown locally and sold locally, where the meat is raised locally and sold locally and so on.

I also think that bussinesses will realize that they can not longer have huge buildings with hundreds of employees, but rather several offices scattered around several communities.

Originally posted by AlexofSkye
My posting was intended to point out some facts that I believe are not being given sufficient weight by the alarmists out there.

You make some good points. The problem is, none of these sources and technologies can come close to supporting today's (and tomorrow's even greater) demands.

originally posted by ECK:Venezuela won't be inclined to do us any favors any time soon.

originally posted by: Alex:Transient political issues are irrelevant. Chavez won't last forever.

That's what they thought about Fidel Castro, too.

Oh, come on. Perhaps you're not old enough to remember the "oil shock" of the early 70's, but I am.

I remember it well.

Even in the US, there were lineups at the gas pumps. But the apocalyptic consequences you predict simply did not happen.

That was then. This is now. Big difference. World reserves are now at or near peak. Things are never going to get better, only worse, b/c of skyrocketing demand and lesser supply. We're probly gonna wind up facing China on a battlefield one day in the not-so-distant future (in part b/c of our reckless foreign policy and our leaders' unwillingness to discuss this honestly) .

People need to (a) acknowledge the coming realities and (b) start planning now for worst case scenarios. The government sure ain't gonna be there to help you.

Innovation - the ability to find new sources of energy.
Adapation - tolerance for higher prices, the ability to use less
Productivity - are oil shales and oil sands expensive sources. Yes, at present. But you can bet there are lots of industry experts focussed on making it less so.

Any president who actually had the best interest of our nation at heart would step up and announce the beginning of a long-term, national strategic energy initiative to address and stave off the impending crisis - on the importance level of say, the space program of the '60's. To not do this, and prepare Americans for what surely lies ahead is completely derelict and utterly unacceptable.

On the topic of Peak Oil and what it means for food production I recommend readers check out the following articles:

The Oil We Eat

Why Our Food is So Dependent on Oil

Eating Fossil Fuels

Dependence on Phantom Carrying Capacity

Oil and Food: A Rising Security Challenge

Current food production system due for collapse

The Cuba Diet

Read those then tell me we don't have a problem.

I agree as most people do that Peak Oil does not mean running out of oil from one day to the next. There's lots left, just not enough to satisfy growing demand.

What it does mean is economic hardship and a fundamental shift in society.

Yes we'll all be forced to "get local", first as a matter of affordability, then as a matter of survival.

Check out the Surviving Peak Oil site for articles about becomming more self-sufficient, moving closer to work etc.
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Originally posted by Gools
On the topic of Peak Oil and what it means for food production I recommend readers check out the following articles:

Thanks for contributing those links, Gools.

You've given us quite a bit to.. chew on.

good links

i really hope things dont work out like the apocalypse. I would like to believe that we have enough oil to sustain us while people figure out a better and cost efficient fuel source, but who am i kidding.

Originally posted by pao
good links

I would like to believe that we have enough oil to sustain us while people figure out a better and cost efficient fuel source, but who am i kidding.

Whether it happens in 5 yrs or 50 years, wouldn't it be good to know you were prepared?

I have been prepping.
Over the years I have gathered hand grain grinders, meat grinders, old things that run by hand crank and work perfectly. Woodburning stove ect. Freinds may harass me for my odd collection of gear I tote around, but you will NOT part me from my water purifier!!!

I had a good food storage stockpile, but was forced to sell it during a move......I still keep gallons of water on hand though.......

Stocking fuel and kerosine is another matter entierly and I have nothing like that anymore.......no place to keep it.
I have a solar cell that hooks to a car battery.....its great for running the cd player when I go camping! That was not cheap, and I wish I had more solar cells.............I wish I liked/knew horses better

[edit on 26-5-2005 by theRiverGoddess]

Well if you have the cash available you can convert your car to run off of Biodiesel and learn how to make your own.