myths- is this for real?

The mammoth west Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough water to lift the world's sea levels by about 6 metres, isn't melting. Instead, its thickening and Antarctica is getting cooler. A new study by researchers from the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Santa Cruz, published in the respected journal Science, found that the ice sheets of Antarctica are expanding by some 26.8 billion tons of ice a year
envirotruth.org...

or is this?
The 212 glaciers that had been in retreat since the early 1950s had shrunk by an average of 600m - although one, the Widdowson Glacier, had been measured galloping backwards at an alarming 1.1 km a year.

stuff.co.nz...

Is this why we are so confused about these issues? From one extreme to the other Thought I would just post some opposites, to give you an idea of how do we discern fact from fiction. So , how do we?

Its two different things tho. The ice sheet is growing, glaciers elsewhere in the world are melting. Other glaciers aren't melting. Others were melting long before there was any industrial increase in c02 emissions. Its a complex system.

It is my understanding that the Institute derived its conclusions on the antarctic ice sheets and glaciers by comparing aerial photographs taken over several decades. The majority of glaciers where melting, but some where actually growing. This brought up the obvious problem of not knowing the facts untill a large enough study pool had been assembled. I believe it is now accepted that the majority of glaciers worldwide are in fact declining in numbers, mass, and volume.

The Antarctic ice sheets are a bit of a different matter. In some areas the sheets are indeed retreating , I believe the closer to coast the more decline . Perhaps it has to do with sea water temperautre rise - I am not certain. However in some areas the sheets are indeed growing - I think the reasoning for this is increased precipitation -ie more snowfall, more volume, more pressure more sheet.

It seems logical to me that as a result of global warming we will see an overall trend of arctic and antarctic thawing. This does not assume though that there will not be areas of increased snowfall, thus giving the sheets a small growth spurt, however minute.

Originally posted by Alias Jones
It is my understanding that the Institute derived its conclusions on the antarctic ice sheets and glaciers by comparing aerial photographs taken over several decades. The majority of glaciers where melting, but some where actually growing. This brought up the obvious problem of not knowing the facts untill a large enough study pool had been assembled. I believe it is now accepted that the majority of glaciers worldwide are in fact declining in numbers, mass, and volume.

The Antarctic ice sheets are a bit of a different matter. In some areas the sheets are indeed retreating , I believe the closer to coast the more decline . Perhaps it has to do with sea water temperautre rise - I am not certain. However in some areas the sheets are indeed growing - I think the reasoning for this is increased precipitation -ie more snowfall, more volume, more pressure more sheet.

It seems logical to me that as a result of global warming we will see an overall trend of arctic and antarctic thawing. This does not assume though that there will not be areas of increased snowfall, thus giving the sheets a small growth spurt, however minute.

Overall, Antarcttica has lost far more ice than it has gained.
One of the predicted effects of global warming is that some areas will experience increased precipitation. My area is one such region. The two highest peaks near here have had record snowfalls in recent years, and three years in the 80's were alltime precip. record years for this area. At the higher elevations this falls as snow, and the glaciers grow, while at seal level, snowfall has decreased while overall precip. has grown.

Climate shift maybe?

Troy

Originally posted by cybertroy
Climate shift maybe?

Troy

Thats like saying what killed Kennedy was a bullet.......
What is the cause of the shift, whether there is a shift or not is pretty much agreed by all. I read that 99% of scientists agree warming is real, they just don't agree we are the reason. My view is that we are the main one, and if not, what is the reason, there has to be one, things don't just happen without something triggering them.

Black Guard XIII, just making a guess as to what is happening, no need to be harsh.

Anyway, things do seem a bit chaotic. It's about 38 here is Southwest Virginia, and it's at the end of April. We were close to records set in 1933.

Troy

Originally posted by Alias Jones
I believe it is now accepted that the majority of glaciers worldwide are in fact declining in numbers, mass, and volume.

I am unaware of any consensus in the scientific community on that subject. Most glaciers haven't been studied in anywhere near enough detail to conclude that.

This does not assume though that there will not be areas of increased snowfall, thus giving the sheets a small growth spurt, however minute.

We don't know enough to be able to say that the growth is a spurt, nor that its small no?

Well, if studying glaciation for two weeks in a geology class makes me an expert, then I'm an expert LOL!!

But one thing that I have seen has been on three trips to Glacier NP. The first one, in 1964 with my parents, showed the glaciers there as we used to think about them. By 1992, my second visither, they were noticeably smaller, and in 2001, the last time I took Going-to-the-Sun Highway, the glaciers were in full retreat.

I know that there are cycles and epicycles in climate, and the entire study of the dynamics of climate in general and glaciation in particular is hideously complex. No one knows whether they're all going away or not.

But actually seeing the shrinkage of glaciers is disturbing, to say the least.

spectator.org quotes Tech Central Station- a corporate shill think tank to repudiate

www.signonsandiego.com...

As Tech Central Station is supported by AT&T, ExxonMobil, GM, Intel, McDonalds, Microsoft, Nasdaq, National Semiconductors, PhRMA, and Qualcomm- this journo-lobbying think tank PR has in the past attacked Super-Size Me, the reimportation of prescription drugs from Canada, and now the science of global warming and the Kyoto accord. James Glassman is also now starring in a PBS show called TechnoPolitics as well as running Tech Central Station.

(yes, I am one of the few people who actually read conflicting reports of the same subject- and investigate the sources) regardless of politics

The Media like to tout doom and gloom about anything and everything enviromenatally related and if there is any truth to it at all it is often trumped up.
here's something to remember, the earth has natural cycles and ways of keeping our destructive tendencies in line. The earth will be fine, but will we?

Is this not consensus?


An in-depth study using aerial photographs spanning the past half century of all 244 marine glaciers on the west side of the finger-like peninsular pointing up to South America found that 87 percent of them were in retreat -- and the speed was rising.

"Regional warming is the strongest single factor in this retreat, and there is growing evidence that this is due to global warming," scientist David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) told a news conference.

LINK:
today.reuters.co.uk... L

Almost all the glaciers that flow into the sea off the Antarctic Peninsula are retreating. The discovery comes from an analysis spanning more than half a century of aerial photographs and satellite images.

"Fifty years ago most glaciers were slowly growing in length, but the pattern is now reversed and they're shrinking," the British Antarctic Survey's Alison Cook told a press conference in London. Of 244 glaciers studied, 87% have shown a net retreat since photographic evidence was first collected in the 1940s, says Cook, who led the project

LINK:
www.nature.com...

It is thought that over 13,000 sq km of sea ice in the Antarctic Peninsula has been lost over the last 50 years.

The findings were announced at a Climate Change Conference in Exeter.

Rising sea level

Professor Chris Rapley, director of (Bas), told the conference that Antarctica could become a "giant awakened", contributing heavily to rising sea levels.

Melting in the Antarctic Peninsula removes sea ice that once held back the movement of glaciers. As a result, glaciers flow into the ocean up to six times faster than before.

The other region in the continent affected by the changes is West Antarctica, where warmer sea water is thought to be eroding the ice from underneath.

LINK":

news.bbc.co.uk...

Region \ Observations

Circum-Arctic
Glaciers have generally lost mass over the last 30 years. In East and West Greenland glaciers are retreating rapidly while in North Greenland the situation is unclear. Svalbard glaciers are losing mass


Central Asia

From the 1950s to the 1980s, 73% of glaciers were retreating, 15% were advancing and 12% were stable.

Tropical mountains
The retreat of glaciers has been documented in the Ecuadorian Andes, New Guinea, East Africa (Mount Kenya's glacier has receded markedly since the late 1800s and since the 1960s its mass has decreased by 40%), Venezuela and Peru.

New Zealand
Most glaciers have retreated during the 20th century. The Tasman Glacier has thinned by more than 100m. Since 1983, the recession of western glaciers has reversed and these glaciers are growing (e.g. the Franz Josef glacier).

Southern and central South America
The Upsala glacier has retreating about 60m per year over the last 60 years and this rate appears to be accelerating. In the last 40 years, the area of the South Patagonian Ice Field has diminished by about 500km2. The Soler and Tyndall Glaciers also appear to have lost mass, while the Pio XI glacier in Patagonia is larger now than at any time in the last 6,000 years.

Europe
For the Alps as a whole, the glacial area since about 1850 has been reduced by 30-40 percent, with about a 50 percent reduction in ice volume. However, this has been counterbalanced by the recent growth of some larger glaciers in the Alps such as the Grosse Aletsch in Switzerland and many Scandinavian glaciers, resulting in a small net increase in glacial ice over the last 30 years.

Antarctica and sub-Antarctic Islands
The alpine glaciers of the Dry Valleys in Antarctic have fluctuated with no apparent trends. Numerous glaciers along the Antarctic Peninsula are in retreat. Glaciers in many sub-Antarctic islands are also in retreat, for example, some small glaciers in Heard Island have decreased by up to 65%.

LINK:

archive.greenpeace.org...

MANY MORE AT YOUR REQUEST

Originally posted by Alias Jones
Is this not consensus?


An in-depth study using aerial photographs spanning the past half century of all 244 marine glaciers on the west side of the finger-like peninsular pointing up to South America found that 87 percent of them were in retreat -- and the speed was rising.

Correct. It is not consensus. Its a study. About glaciers in one area of the world.

The retreat of glaciers has been documented in the Ecuadorian Andes, New Guinea, East Africa (Mount Kenya's glacier has receded markedly since the late 1800s and since the 1960s its mass has decreased by 40%), Venezuela and Peru.

Is it a surprise that glaciers on mountians in the tropics are melting? Mt Kilimamjaro is melting. Its been melting every since it was known.

Greenpeace? Scientific Consensus does not come about by greenpeace issuing 'fact sheets'. There is a building consensus amoung climate modelers that global warming is occuring. There is not a consensus amoung scientists. The climate modelers might be relying too much on their models. They might be right, they might be wrong. But to say that there is a consensus amoung the scientific community is wrong.

If you have more information, then present the scientific papers that demonstrate that most of the glaciers are melting. And also ask, are the study methods reasonable, have any other papers contradicted these papers, and the like.

Nyugen, while global deglaciation and ice sheet retreaton a global scale may not be in the Encylopedia Brittanica as fact ...yet, there are world wide obervations. international remote sensing data, untold numbers of localized first hand accounts, and international scientific consortiums designated to investigating this very thing.

con·sen·sus ( P ) Pronunciation Key (kn-snss)
n.
1. An opinion or position reached by a group as a whole: “

2.General agreement or accord: government by consensus.

Now if we are describing scientific consensus, I fear , you may have a point. There may never be a 100% " consensus" as to the degree of thawing, its scope, manifestations or associated perils. The dynamics involved on a planetary scale are beyond our modelling. So I guess I agree that while there may be no outright general classification of 100% certainty among all scientific branches in regard to global deglaciation. I would say that the teams that have studied firsthand these locales may just be the ones to listen to.

ps. many of whom ( the teams that have studied firsthand these locales ) are giving warning that indeed, the planet is warming, and thus the ice is indeed melting


No need to get into a pissing match over semantics. You must agree that the data suggests the glaciers are melting and the ice sheets are retreating as whole - no?

Repectfully

Alias Jones

The Pasterze, Austria'a longest glacier, was much longer in the 19th C. but is now completetely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road






Alaska's glaciers are receding at twice the rate previously thought, according to a new study published in the July 19, 2002 Science journal. These two images show Portage Glacier, near Anchorage, Alaska, in about 1950 and in July 2001. The ice has pulled back nearly out of sight.

1950:



2002:



Greenland's huge icecap, second only to Antarctica, is also showing signs of change, although measurements are preliminary. Outflow glaciers like this one on the central east coast, as measured by NASA airborne radar and laser, appear to be thinning and flowing more rapidly. The National Climate Data Center (NOAA) reports that 2002 saw the greatest measured surface melt of Greenland ice in 24 years of satellite records. Two deep ice cores from there provide a detailed Northern Hemisphere climate record extending beyond the last ice age.

2001:



2004:

www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org...


LINK:
www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org...


Some " Consensual " Scientists:

General information sites on climate change
These contain an abundance of information and further connections on this deep and complex subject.

A group of climate scientists have started their own site to explain global warming and respond to critics and challenges to their science -- RealClimate.org www.realclimate.org...


Pacific Institute's Global Change - www.globalchange.org... (this site has graciously maintained an archive of the early part of my project 1999-2000)


US Global Change Research Program - www.globalchange.gov...


NASA Earth Observatory - earthobservatory.nasa.gov...


EPA's Global Warming site - yosemite.epa.gov...


National Climate Data Center - lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov...


Climate Institute - www.climate.org...


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climatge Change IPCC - www.ipcc.ch...


UNEP site for Climate Change info, charts and maps climatechange.unep.net...


National Climate Assessment - www.usgcrp.gov...




Many environmental groups and NGO's have great climate change websites:

Union of Concerned Scientists - www.ucsusa.org...

Climate Effects Map - www.climatehotmap.org...


Natural Resources Defense Council - www.nrdc.org...


World Wildlife Fund - www.panda.org...


Greenpeace - www.greenpeace.org... (choose CLIMATE on lower toolbar)


Climate Solutions - www.climatesolutions.org...


Physicians for Social Responsibility has information about the health effects of climate change, and sections on the regional effects of climate change in the United Steates - www.psr.org...


The Heat is Online, companion to Ross Gelbspan's book (see below) is a good clearinghouse for climate information, especially in debunking the skeptics and misinformation about global warming - www.heatisonline.org...


Grist on-line magazine - www.gristmagazine.org...


Climate Ark --This is a mega information site (with a sister site on Forest issues) which has a very deep "Climate Change News Archive," links directory, and renewable energy news. www.climateark.org...

Campaign Earth --If you'd like to have many ideas on how you and your family and co-workers can help slow global warming. this is the site. www.campaignearth.org...

Climate Action Network --For a huge variety of information and connections on global warming, check out this worldwide network of over 365 Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs). www.climnet.org...

Also read World Watch Nov Dec 1997 Playing God with Climate

Recommended books

Feeling the Heat, Jim Motavalli, editor (Routledge 2004) -- see Actions
Stormy Weather, Guy Dauncey, Patrick Mazza (New Society 2001) - see above
The Discovery of Global Warming, Spencer Weart (Harvard 2003)
Laboratory Earth, Stephen Schneider (Basic 1997)

The Heat is On, Ross Gelbspan (Perseus Books 1998)
Boiling Point: How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists and Activists Have Fueled the Climate Crisis -- And What We Can Do To Avert Disaster. The newest expose by Ross Gelbspan (Basic Books, Aug. 2004)

Global Warming the Complete Briefing, 2d Edition, John Houghton (Cambridge 1997)

Atmosphere, climate and change, Graedel & Crutzen (Freeman )

Change in the Weather, William Stephens (Delacorte Press 1999)
Greenhouse: 200-year story of global warming, Gate Christianson (Walker Publishing 1999)
Climate Change 2001, IPCC (Cambridge 2001) --- This is the full report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world scientific body on this topic.



The time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1856 to 2001. On this graph, the year 2001 was the second warmest on record (now supplanted by the much warmer 2002). This time series is being compiled jointly by the Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met. Office Hadley Centre. The record is being continually up-dated and improved. The principal reason is to detect climate change due to global warming through an increase in temperature in the instrumental record. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities are most likely the underlying cause of warming in the 20th century."


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