Michigan Georgia Pennsylvania Arizona no vote totals on election night

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: LSU2018
a reply to: putnam6

I don't believe they can wait til Friday, '20 was the first time I've ever gone to bed on election night without a called election. Those states surely can't be that ignorant. We all know Trump will win the EC and PV this time so shut up and count. Millions are already voting early too.

According to a recent Suffolk poll , Harris is leading 2-1 with early voters.
That is despite the Republicans leading in some states according to party registration early voting.
it suggests Republicans are voting against Trump in early voting.

eu.usatoday.com...

It's possible but in 2020, the Democrat's early voting was much larger, besides it will only matter in the swing states

270 to win estimates that Harris must win all 3 States Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, right now all 3 are in question. If the one state she loses is Pennsylvania she must win Georgia or North Carolina and win all the western states she is supposed to win

You can look at it another way
There are 6 key states GA, AZ, NC, WI, PA, MI (NV may be influential but unlikely)
Trump needs 3 of 6 key states - and particular ones - as winning GA, AZ, NC is not enough. If he holds those he still needs 1 of WI, PA , MI.
Harris needs win MI, PA, WI and it's over

The key is really PA , though, and Harris is absolutely shredding Trump there in early voting - 1.05m returned ballots have been received.
Of those, 0.65m are returns from Democrats, 0.3m from Republicans
Of course this is party registration, but it is very indicative as net , the defectors will wash out.

Dems also have over 400k mail ballot yet to be returned, with Republicans only 260k.

I suspect the deficit in PA will be about half a million votes by election day.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: LSU2018
a reply to: putnam6

I don't believe they can wait til Friday, '20 was the first time I've ever gone to bed on election night without a called election. Those states surely can't be that ignorant. We all know Trump will win the EC and PV this time so shut up and count. Millions are already voting early too.

According to a recent Suffolk poll , Harris is leading 2-1 with early voters.
That is despite the Republicans leading in some states according to party registration early voting.
it suggests Republicans are voting against Trump in early voting.

eu.usatoday.com...

It's possible but in 2020, the Democrat's early voting was much larger, besides it will only matter in the swing states

270 to win estimates that Harris must win all 3 States Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, right now all 3 are in question. If the one state she loses is Pennsylvania she must win Georgia or North Carolina and win all the western states she is supposed to win

You can look at it another way
There are 6 key states GA, AZ, NC, WI, PA, MI (NV may be influential but unlikely)
Trump needs 3 of 6 key states - and particular ones - as winning GA, AZ, NC is not enough. If he holds those he still needs 1 of WI, PA , MI.
Harris needs win MI, PA, WI and it's over

The key is really PA , though, and Harris is absolutely shredding Trump there in early voting - 1.05m returned ballots have been received.
Of those, 0.65m are returns from Democrats, 0.3m from Republicans
Of course this is party registration, but it is very indicative as net , the defectors will wash out.

Dems also have over 400k mail ballot yet to be returned, with Republicans only 260k.

I suspect the deficit in PA will be about half a million votes by election day.

Again in 2020, Biden had a 3 to 1 early voting advantage and a better return rate on requested ballots if it's less than 140,000 difference in 2024 do the math(s)

Im well aware of the "blue wall" did a post on it much earlier here are the graphic uploads they haven't changed





By my maths, the Democrats need 1,053,424 to just hit what they mailed in for 2020 not impossible at all, but it will be determined by the Republican turnout on election day.


electproject.github.io...



FWIW

here's one of my sources...they seem more updated.

x.com...

Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 11

📥 1,051,655 votes cast

🔵 DEM: 649,060 - 60.1% returned
🔴 GOP: 300,862 - 53.6% returned
🟡 IND: 101,733 - 44.5% returned

VBM Splits: 🔵 61.7% / 🔴 28.6% / 🟡 9.7%

Ballot Edge: 🔵+348,198
Return Edge: 🔵+6.5

Thoughts ⬇️

2020 we had Covid so more mail in ballots.

But in 2020 Dems had about 64% of all mail ins.
They have 62% this year so far.

Consider that MANY more Dems were mailing ballots last time around - proportionally - because Trump told Republicans not to trust it.
Even with that the mail in ballot distribution is almost the same as 2020.

originally posted by: UKTruth
2020 we had Covid so more mail in ballots.

But in 2020 Dems had about 64% of all mail ins.
They have 62% this year so far.

Consider that MANY more Dems were mailing ballots last time around - proportionally - because Trump told Republicans not to trust it.
Even with that the mail in ballot distribution is almost the same as 2020.

for perspective

Democrats had 57% of the mail-in votes in 2020
Republicans had 17% of the mail-in votes in 2020

a 40% edge in 2020 for the Democrats now it's a 7% edge so far in 2024

Democrats need to return 1.3 million mail-in votes just to hit what they had in 2020
Republicans need about 250,000 to hit thier mail-in vote totals in 2020

Maths

FWIW traditionally Democrats vote by mail much more than the Republicans who like to go and stand in line to vote

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania official stats in 2020

www.electionreturns.pa.gov...

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: UKTruth
2020 we had Covid so more mail in ballots.

But in 2020 Dems had about 64% of all mail ins.
They have 62% this year so far.

Consider that MANY more Dems were mailing ballots last time around - proportionally - because Trump told Republicans not to trust it.
Even with that the mail in ballot distribution is almost the same as 2020.

for perspective

Doesn't that just mean that more Dems will be voting on teh day because we don't have COVID in 2024?

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: UKTruth
2020 we had Covid so more mail in ballots.

But in 2020 Dems had about 64% of all mail ins.
They have 62% this year so far.

Consider that MANY more Dems were mailing ballots last time around - proportionally - because Trump told Republicans not to trust it.
Even with that the mail in ballot distribution is almost the same as 2020.

for perspective

Doesn't that just mean that more Dems will be voting on teh day because we don't have COVID in 2024?

Who knows, I'm just discussing this and trying to wrap my head around it I find it interesting

In the highly contested Senate vote in 2022, the Democrats had a 20% edge in mail-in voting and ultimately won by a 230,000 margin even with the Republican's 27% walk-in voter edge

It could come down to those types of percentages for this election as well



So much depends on the enthusiasm of the Republican Pennsylvania voter and who wins the Independents

I do want to add we have 2 independent candidates on the ballot in Pennsylvania for example in 2020 Libertarian Jo Jorgenson got almost 80,000 votes. It's not too far of a stretch to see some disgruntled voters not going for either Trump or Harris.

for perspective, the margin for Biden in 2020 in Pennsylvania was 82,000 votes total. Thats the other thing as the article points we dont know


thehill.com...

Early voting numbers tell us very little about the final result
This is perhaps the most important point of all about early voting numbers.

Partisan backers of one candidate or the other will always seize on the early statistics to predict the election’s overall outcome.

They are almost always evincing a misplaced confidence.

There are simply too many variables to make projections of an election’s outcome on this basis.

The central difficulty is, there is simply too much that we cannot know.

For whom are the voters who are not registered as either Democratic or Republican casting their ballots? Do increased early vote numbers indicate unusual voter enthusiasm or simply a general shift in voting habits?

They need time to bring in the over sea Ballots . No pandemic so its harder to cheat and they won't get away with shutting down .a reply to: putnam6

Completed early voting today, line was almost wrapped around the building as people stood in the snow and slipped and slid their way across the parking lot.

Yes, older voting machines have Wi-Fi cards in them. Here’s why election workers say that’s not cause for concern

Antrim Michigan Forensics Report
🤣🤣

We conclude that the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully
designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election
results. The system intentionally generates an enormously high number of ballot
errors. The electronic ballots are then transferred for adjudication. The intentional
errors lead to bulk adjudication of ballots with no ov transparency, and ersight, no
no audit trail. This leads to voter or election fraud. Based on our study, we
conclude that The Dominion Voting System should not be used in Michigan. We
further conclude that the results of Antrim County should not havbeen certified.

originally posted by: xuenchen
Antrim Michigan Forensics Report
🤣🤣

We conclude that the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully
designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election
results. The system intentionally generates an enormously high number of ballot
errors. The electronic ballots are then transferred for adjudication. The intentional
errors lead to bulk adjudication of ballots with no ov transparency, and ersight, no
no audit trail. This leads to voter or election fraud. Based on our study, we
conclude that The Dominion Voting System should not be used in Michigan. We
further conclude that the results of Antrim County should not havbeen certified.

Interesting read.
I am not sure how they know how many ballots were changed during the unaudited adjudication process.
They state that there is no way of knowing and also state that 1,000s voted were switched.

Clearly, the fact that over 2/3rds of votes were sent for 'adjudication' is a major issue.

The problem is , they got away with it.
Why do you think that the Democrats, the DoJ, and the main stream media all coordinated to try to make questioning the results illegal or somehow abhorrent?

This is why Trump can not win - he has no chance.
The democrat machine already took the US and elections in the US simply don't matter anymore.

'It's not who votes that matters, it's who counts the votes' [sic]
This is what a dictatorship looks like.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: xuenchen
Antrim Michigan Forensics Report
🤣🤣

We conclude that the Dominion Voting System is intentionally and purposefully
designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election
results. The system intentionally generates an enormously high number of ballot
errors. The electronic ballots are then transferred for adjudication. The intentional
errors lead to bulk adjudication of ballots with no ov transparency, and ersight, no
no audit trail. This leads to voter or election fraud. Based on our study, we
conclude that The Dominion Voting System should not be used in Michigan. We
further conclude that the results of Antrim County should not havbeen certified.

Interesting read.
I am not sure how they know how many ballots were changed during the unaudited adjudication process.
They state that there is no way of knowing and also state that 1,000s voted were switched.

Clearly, the fact that over 2/3rds of votes were sent for 'adjudication' is a major issue.

The problem is , they got away with it.
Why do you think that the Democrats, the DoJ, and the main stream media all coordinated to try to make questioning the results illegal or somehow abhorrent?

This is why Trump can not win - he has no chance.
The democrat machine already took the US and elections in the US simply don't matter anymore.

'It's not who votes that matters, it's who counts the votes' [sic]
This is what a dictatorship looks like.

Im in a battleground state and Im plugged into what is and isn't happening (look at my history) and Im much less skeptical than in 2020.

If our respective state governments didn't make changes it semi-falls on them and somewhat partially on the citizens of the state FOR not forcing changes statewide and at the county and city level.

I know some bills introduced were specifically because one county took their concerns and made it happen obviously, some didn't become law but some did. And yes some partisan groups are better at influencing our legislators than others

Just as a representative democracy is supposed to work.

for perspective there have been hundreds of voting laws enacted in various states since 2020, ergo it shouldn't be the same as in 2020 and if it's not it's because there was no impetus in that state for change pure and simple.