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Kamala Harris may have enjoyed her most successful campaign weeks, according to our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead.
The model crunches all the latest poll data, as well as decades worth of election results plus economic indicators, to calculate who has the best chance of winning the electoral college in November.
It still shows Harris with the best chance of claiming victory in the popular vote (it gives her 50.8 percent support now and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in November).
Last update: 9:45 a.m., Friday, September 27. A lot of polling since our last update, and the model mostly liked it for Harris — especially the national polls, which show her lead expanding to an even 3 points. There were exceptions, notably in Arizona, though the model somewhat shrugs Arizona polling off since it’s relatively unlikely to be the tipping-point state, making it among the less critical swing states. Instead, Plan A for Harris runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — and Plan B involves North Carolina, Georgia or both.
The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we’re getting to the point where we’d say we’d rather have Harris’s hand to play.
originally posted by: WeMustCare
Rasmussen CEO says Kamalas expected decent has begun.
🎃
originally posted by: TinfoilTophat
Been saying it for months now.
5000 dead boomers per day since Nov. 2020.
41 million first time Gen Z voters.
Will Trump win the youth vote? No.
Will Trump win the women's vote? No.