DailyMail.com election model which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead

Kamala Harris may have enjoyed her most successful campaign weeks, according to our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead.

The model crunches all the latest poll data, as well as decades worth of election results plus economic indicators, to calculate who has the best chance of winning the electoral college in November.

It still shows Harris with the best chance of claiming victory in the popular vote (it gives her 50.8 percent support now and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in November).

Daily mail

By contrast Nate silver says it’s undecided but leaning Harris and she is up in polls by agragate.

Last update: 9:45 a.m., Friday, September 27. A lot of polling since our last update, and the model mostly liked it for Harris — especially the national polls, which show her lead expanding to an even 3 points. There were exceptions, notably in Arizona, though the model somewhat shrugs Arizona polling off since it’s relatively unlikely to be the tipping-point state, making it among the less critical swing states. Instead, Plan A for Harris runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — and Plan B involves North Carolina, Georgia or both.

The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we’re getting to the point where we’d say we’d rather have Harris’s hand to play.

Nate silver

I hope Trump wins…

…but this just shows the people who make their money trying to figure this out have no idea who’s going to win.

Past elections polls have skewed slightly D. Think this one is going to come down to who cheats the most/best.

Shut your mouth, both sides cheated last time and it was proved. Republicans arrested & here is Both sides admitting voter fraud.

So I think cheating will ultimately determine outcome of the 2024 election.

I celebrate states cleaning their voter rolls lately, at least two threads recently on ATS. And mail in ballot requests are way down 2024 vs 2020. So that might be the deciding factor as there is less cheating room.

I’m so disgusted I think this will be last time I vote for either D or R (unless it’s Vivek).

Both are destroying our country, most times in lock -step; Trump is an anomaly and this is last time Trump will run.

Rasmussen CEO says Kamalas expected decent has begun.
🎃

Will she lose one glass slipper at the witching hour of midnight? 🕛

They'll have to keep the cameras off of Harris and her even more repugnant running mate if they want to stop the mutiny.
Her 'hollistic' approach to sounding hollistically enlightened in a positive, hollistic manner didn't jive hollistically-not even with the hollistic crowd.

She made it glaringly obvious that she picks one new word to expand her vocabulary every six months or so, then uses it in every sentence that comes out of her mouth ad nauseam. Even die-haed libs are having a hard time overlooking what appears to be a rather large mental deficite.

a reply to: pianopraze

I wouldn't trust Daily Mail for a horoscope let alone their "J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election models." That could be anything, but it sounds official.

10 point lead? Trump is only that popular (vs. Harris) in people's heads. I wasn't voting on the president in July. In August I was.

All the recent polls favor Kamala and she is pulling away from Trump where it matters.

This is also an average of all recent polls.

www.270towin.com...

Really all that matters are 3 states. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

WI is currently closest.



The last 10 polls in the closet state, only one in which Trump ties. PA and MI polls look similar.

While polls really don't mean crap (2016) it's still not adding up to a 10 point lead in any reality.

I think we're being set up unconsciously to "insurrect" by right-wing media feeding people a steady supply of overly positive news and assured victory - only to have it ripped away by reality (if Harris wins). The anger of another popped bubble..

There are literally people who think his loss is impossible and could only be accomplished by cheating. I feel these are the types of stories that feed it.

I dont think he's that popular. He's not up that big. Actually down according to many. This assured nature of his victory is concerning.

a reply to: Degradation33

I don’t trust any of the media.

I provided balanced with Nate silver.

And to completely redo my op, I think cheating will determine outcome. I don’t polls/ sources in your post any more than daily mail.

I think they think they have enough cheating in place to pretend polls are for Harris.

originally posted by: WeMustCare
Rasmussen CEO says Kamalas expected decent has begun.
🎃

I’m going to play grammar nazi because I don’t believe Kamala and the word ‘decent’ belong in the same sentence …(descent)

Been saying it for months now.

5000 dead boomers per day since Nov. 2020.
41 million first time Gen Z voters.

Will Trump win the youth vote? No.
Will Trump win the women's vote? No.
Will Trump win the popular vote? No.

His best chance is low voter turnout.

a reply to: pianopraze

The injection of FRAUD in 2016 and 2020 caused all traditional models to fail.

originally posted by: TinfoilTophat
Been saying it for months now.

5000 dead boomers per day since Nov. 2020.
41 million first time Gen Z voters.

Will Trump win the youth vote? No.
Will Trump win the women's vote? No.

You're saying American Youth and Women don't mind higher prices, higher taxes, and illegals? Three damages brought by Biden-Harris.