About those polls.....

www.foxnews.com...

Pollster Nate Silver predicts Trump poised to win Electoral College amid 'mediocre' Harris polling

Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.

Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote.

Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.

Hmm... Nate Silver, seems like I have heard that name before. Didn't he have something to do with 538 polling, that place that seems to be the gold standard with many on the left? Well, regardless of who said it, it was said. I can't see Harris getting any momentum from now until the election, she can only lose ground. She will not speak outside of a teleprompter, and the upcoming debate, (largely because she has not spoked to any press in reality) can only be a "meh" if she does great, but more likely the final nail in the coffin if Trump is able to bring up her failures in a meaningful way.

As I see Trump's job here, it's to answer every question in a way that highlights the Biden Harris accomplishments with regard to each question. Somethin like "as we have seen with the current administration of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, the way they have dealt with (X) has been an abysmal failure because of (X)." Then he can say whatever he would do to fix those errors. If that is the meat and potatoes, he wins, both the debate and the election. I think Harris' options are almost none here, due to her actions with the press. But the 538 guy also thinks Trump's gonna win.

Why oh why do people (especially the media) put any credence in polls ? They are the most easiest things to skew any information, yet people still believe and quote their results. Let me put it simple for you. I could do a poll that would give Harris 100% chance of winning.
What they don't tell you, or obfuscate. 1. How many people polled. If the poll is only 100 people rather than a 1000 or 10,000, the result is not as varied. 2. But forget that, the biggest criteria's are just where and just who they poll.
Easy examples for you, As a pollster I want a Trump victory so I do my poll at a Trump rally (remember they don't really have to tell you where the poll is done) knowing everyone polled will say Trump to win. ERGO, Trump 100%. The same at a Harris rally. 100% Harris. But the pollsters are cleverer than that so they mix in others opinions.
It's like all these people predicting WW3. Oh, it's going to kick off on October the first, but it doesn't so they are not held to account. But sooner or later (Cliff High is the grand master of it) they will be correct and THAT is when they shout loudest "Look I predicted this so my predictions are right". BS.

a reply to: crayzeed

I believe that polling as we know it today, is meant to drive public opinion, rather than measure it. It was obvious in 2016, and has only become more of a joke. But if you follow the threads, you notice that anytime "polling" shows the desired result, it's bandied about as "proof" of something. And the lefties love them some 538, as it's been heavily democratic in their leanings for a while now, much like most of the media. So seeing the guy from 538 speak of something other than "Harris by 30%" made me smile, and post about it.

a reply to: network dude

Every poll said Hillary was going to win easily.
She didn't even prepare a concession speech.
That's how Biden got 81 million votes. They didn't cheat enough in 2016 so they doubled down in 2020.

The idea that there is a voter out there that's still undecided is hard to believe. What other reason could these polls exist other than motivating undecided voters?

a reply to: Bluntone22

I too, doubt there are any "undecided" voters out there. There may be many who haven't decided if they are going to bother voting this election, but anyone who plans to vote, likely has already made up their mind. they sure won't be getting any new material from the Harris campaign. She's running as "Joe Biden's shadow".

The sad reality is that polls can reflect whatever the pollster wishes to convey.

Finding the facts and truth of the matter simply aren't profitable therefore not desired.

a reply to: network dude

According to the DNC she's already the underdog - but we've still got dimwits citing polls that favor her like they're unassailable facts.

They can believe whatever they want
All roads lead to this-

a reply to: network dude

The only polls I really like have nekid ladies dancing on them.




That being said, the establishment, deep state, WEF, whatever you want to call it, will not allow Trump to win again. No matter how high in the polls he gets.

Polls are meaningless now. Hell, they've tried to jail him, kill him, there is no stopping them.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
a reply to: network dude

The only polls I really like have nekid ladies dancing on them.

That being said, the establishment, deep state, WEF, whatever you want to call it, will not allow Trump to win again. No matter how high in the polls he gets.

Polls are meaningless now. Hell, they've tried to jail him, kill him, there is no stopping them.

except the one part that holds constant.....they have failed at every turn.

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: DBCowboy
a reply to: network dude

The only polls I really like have nekid ladies dancing on them.

That being said, the establishment, deep state, WEF, whatever you want to call it, will not allow Trump to win again. No matter how high in the polls he gets.

Polls are meaningless now. Hell, they've tried to jail him, kill him, there is no stopping them.

except the one part that holds constant.....they have failed at every turn.

a reply to: CarlLaFong

One hopes that won't be the last genuine image of the American spirit.

Cheers

About those polls.....

Polls only work when they conform to your confirmation bias.


projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

originally posted by: lilzazz
About those polls.....

Polls only work when they conform to your confirmation bias.


projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

I suppose that no named guy referenced in the OP isn't a factor in your Whitty post about that particular polling entity. You make me smile.

a reply to: lilzazz

She's been officially named the underdog by the DNC.

Are they lying (AGAIN)?

originally posted by: underpass61
a reply to: lilzazz

She's been officially named the underdog by the DNC.

Are they lying (AGAIN)?

I don't know.....perhaps it's a clever tactic to get out the women's vote. I think JD, locked that one up for the "cat lady" dembs however.

www.usatoday.com...

a reply to: lilzazz

So they're lying

Got it

originally posted by: underpass61
a reply to: lilzazz

So they're lying

Got it

Yes, I think so. Down playing the actual polls to to gain more support. It's still very close; perhaps the polls will more reflect the actual numbers closer to the election.

JDs' poll numbers....projects.fivethirtyeight.com...


I know...all lies!

a reply to: lilzazz

"actual polls"


LOL

originally posted by: underpass61
a reply to: lilzazz

"actual polls"


LOL

Fair enough....what polls do have accurate data?

a reply to: lilzazz

None

Saying "actual polls" is like saying actual leprechauns.