Exclusive: Kamala Harris surges ahead of Donald Trump in latest poll taken after DNC

Link

I feel like we always need to put a disclaimer before any poll thread, but I guess everyone has read them by now. They still get used quite a bit here on ATS, although the reaction varies by the sort of news they bring. In general, do not trust the actual score of the polls. But Trends can be followed, you can watch how the sentiment shifts over time. Trump also historically underpolls by about 3%, so any advantage Harris and Walz have can be lowered by those 3%.

This poll comes from Suffolk University (click National Polls on the right, and then the Aug 29 poll dropdown for the PDFs), and they are rated pretty high on FiveThirtyEight, at seventh place.

In any case, I want to discuss trends and shifts, over scores.

Democrat Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Republican Donald Trump, 48%-43%, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found.

The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June, when Trump had led President Joe Biden in the survey by nearly four points.

The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.

These are the groups she is gaining in, and not by just a few points, but by huge margins. She has made some of the largest shifts among women, Hispanics, and young people overall. Here is one breakdown from the article:

Among the biggest shifts since June, all outside the poll's margin of error:

- Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
- Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
- Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.

Lower-income voters now support Harris 58%-35%. She has emphasized her commitment to creating an "opportunity economy" that makes housing more affordable and tackles price-gouging on food, although she hasn't released detailed policy plans.

The young people went from Trump +11 to Harris +13 -- that's a staggering 24 point shift.

The Hispanics from Trump +2 to Harris +16, that's an 18 point shift.

And the Black voters went from +47 Biden to +64 Harris, that's a 17 point gain.

26 point gain over those with lowest incomes!

How does Trump reverse these gains, in the next 70 days? The early voting by mail starts in a handful of weeks and all he is doing is continuing to talk about Biden, attacking his opponents with bigoted and racist drivel, spreading conspiracy theories that aren't catching on, and making up nicknames no one understands. Is this really helpful?

Is that the path forward to reversing all these gains Harris and Walz are seeing?

a reply to: Mahogani

Everyone has to have a dream to hold on to.

Keep dreaming because this one is not gonna come true.

Is she Mahogani ?

Is she "SURGING" AHEAD in the polls ?

is she Surging after the CNN interview where she was treated like a Child with Cerebral palsy ?

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
Is she Mahogani ?

Is she "SURGING" AHEAD in the polls ?

is she Surging after the CNN interview where she was treated like a Child with Cerebral palsy ?

You watching it live right now? It started about 20 minutes ago.

I'm watching CNN online stream LIVE right now, and it has the countdown to the interview... 4 hours, 14 minutes, 42 seconds. They're late and the online stream is behind, but I refuse to pay for cable.

And 'surging' is in the title of the article, I copied and pasted the title. You should write them feedback and tell them it triggers you, but leave me out of it, please.

FACT: No President who causes, or presides over, grocery and gasoline prices increasing +20% in a 3 year span of time, is going to win re-election.

Which is one reason (of many) why Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris where it matters, in the ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

Donald Trump is +11 votes/points ahead of Kamala, with his lead GROWING as we get closer to November.

This Elects Presidents: www.realclearpolling.com...

originally posted by: WeMustCare
Donald Trump is +11 votes/points ahead of Kamala, with his lead GROWING as we get closer to November.

This Elects Presidents: www.realclearpolling.com...

He is not 11 "points" over Harris. hahaha. You're linking to a hypothetical, projected Electoral College map. This poll in the OP is from one of the most respected in the country, and it's an actual poll. From talking to real people.

Here is why Harris is seeing such advances, such that analysts/journalists say they had to triple check the numbers before writing an article:

'More than triple-checked it': Data expert shocked by new Dem voter registration numbers

(link to this because article is NYT behind paywall)

"We're tracking something really interesting right now — it’s a surge in voter registration in key groups ahead of the November election," Garrett said. "Among young Black women, registration is up more than 175%. You heard that right. More than 175% in 13 states. That’s compared to the same time in 2020. This, according to the data firm Target Smart, registration has also increased among young Latinas and Black Americans."

Garrett then asked Bonier, "Could that possibly be right? If you must have triple-checked this or many more times than that."

The data expert replied, "You’re right to repeat the number because I more than triple-checked it. It’s incredibly unusual to see changes in voter registration that are anywhere close to this. I mean, there might be 175% is almost tripling of registration rates among this specific group. You just don’t see that sort of thing happen in elections normally."

Responding to the question of what the increase says about voter "enthusiasm," Bonier said, "Tells us a lot. The reason that we look at this voter registration data is because the polls will only tell us so much. The polls tell us how people are going to vote. They don’t tell us if or who is going to vote. It’s a big question.'"

How could she be surging now?

Every poll pushed by the MSM have said she had the lead the second she was anointed.. err I mean selected... no... elected.. yea yea elected.

So were the polls lying then or now?

a reply to: Mahogani

She needs to "surge' farther ahead so we can laugh harder. Trump had a 1% chance to beat HilLOLary election morning. I wanna see a less than 1%. Come on FiveThirtySuck, get us there.

Of course she did.

Because every major news outlet has no government control because of the free press and this is America.

We went from Kamala who? To Kamala is great in the blink of an eye.

This is the election interference the DOJ is charging the Trump campaign with.

I give, I once had a little hope left the country could be turned around but they put played the patriots. This once great nation is going to fall soon. As predicted, from within, without a shot being fired.

a reply to: Mahogani

Yeah right, black women named Roberto Juarez fresh over the border maybe.

I hope you don't really believe registration is up 175% lol

a reply to: Mahogani

This is the same poll average that states that I should nail scrotums of leftists to butcher blocks using finishing nails and a small ball peen hammer.

They are feeling confident in their cheating.

That sucks.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
How could she be surging now?

Every poll pushed by the MSM have said she had the lead the second she was anointed.. err I mean selected... no... elected.. yea yea elected.

So were the polls lying then or now?

Right. Kamala was in the stratosphere after the July 21st coup. She is now even higher, despite no achievements as Vice President? Nope. Americans are not that stupid.

The Electoral College elects Presidents. The E.C. average of polls is more accurate and meaningful.

SEE: www.realclearpolling.com...

x.com...

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom
·
53m
Dana Bash: "You have been Vice President for three and half years. The steps that you are talking about now, why haven't you done them already?"

Kamala: We've brought inflation "down" to a higher level than it was during President Trump's administration.

YIKES.

originally posted by: putnam6
x.com...

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom
·
53m
Dana Bash: "You have been Vice President for three and half years. The steps that you are talking about now, why haven't you done them already?"

Kamala: We've brought inflation "down" to a higher level than it was during President Trump's administration.

YIKES.

Is she really that freaking stupid?

originally posted by: RazorV66

originally posted by: putnam6
x.com...

Trump War Room

@TrumpWarRoom
·
53m
Dana Bash: "You have been Vice President for three and half years. The steps that you are talking about now, why haven't you done them already?"

Kamala: We've brought inflation "down" to a higher level than it was during President Trump's administration.

YIKES.

Is she really that freaking stupid?

In a taped and edited interview that made it in...

a reply to: putnam6

And there are people ignorant enough to vote for that, and call YOU weird. It's comical.

What a joke. Polling five points behind Biden in 2020 is "winning"?

originally posted by: LSU2018
a reply to: Mahogani

She needs to "surge' farther ahead so we can laugh harder. Trump had a 1% chance to beat HilLOLary election morning. I wanna see a less than 1%. Come on FiveThirtySuck, get us there.

How come that wasnt claimed as "Rigged" ?

It just seems like a stretch to me.

Like it's just propaganda in an attempt to manifest reality.

I'm not saying it can't be true. Just that I'm very reluctant to believe a person like this is all of the sudden a superstar.

Idk how these polls are taken. Voluntarily I suppose. I have never been approached or prompted to take political polls or surveys. So it makes me wonder how representative the numbers really are.

I wouldn't be surprised it the numbers look inflated because certain demographics are being encouraged to take the polls.

Just pondering. What do I know?