Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank: Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million-in 2021!

Does the headline look familiar?
From December 19th 2022

President Biden had boasted about the second-quarter job numbers in the heat of the midterm election campaign, using the BLS report as proof that the nation wasn’t headed for a recession.

So after the midterm elections they corrected the record. I heard the fake news report today that the 810,000 job revision was the largest since 2009, really?
Someones got some explaining to do, this looks more like a strategy than an error.

The Biden administration vastly overstated its estimate that employers created more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter of this year, claiming historic job growth when in fact hiring had stalled, according to a new estimate.

Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida called the development “outrageous.”

“Wrong by a million jobs,” Mr. Scott tweeted Friday. “@JoeBiden's admin has been lying to the American people about our economy to prop up his failed agenda & I won't stand for it. I'm requesting an immediate meeting with the head of @BLS_gov. WE NEED ANSWERS NOW!”

edit on 21-8-2024 by fringeofthefringe because: (no reason given)

Flashback: These "good old days" (2018) are returning, if Trump is elected to replace Biden.

Only 3.9% Americans Unemployed is Amazing!: www.nytimes.com...

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

The MSM has hammered the great job record Joe has but the real numbers will get minimum coverage and something more sensational will take its place, so the majority of people will have it in their mind how good his employment record 'is' compared to Trump.

They made a concerted effort across the country to make felonies misdemeaners dropping the crime rate drastically. Reporting crime rates to the FBI is where the statistics come from and is done on a voluntary baseis; since Joe took office reporting of crime rates has gone down to just 83% from agencies around the country and many of them are only partial figures.

Look at the low inflation rate since the 'inflation reduction act' and it takes a special kind of person to believe they haven't been manipulated.

One thing covid should have taught everybody that all the data our government gives us has been manipulated to brainwash as many as possible to believe a lie.

Digging for the truth and releasing it publically isn't for the faint of heart and can shave decades off of ones life expectancy.

I am not better off than I was durring Trump's administration. Inflation for me-even after belt tightening-is running above 33%; more like closer to 50% when considering property taxes, auto and home insurrance and basic utilities.

I recently read an article showing global IQ has been steadily dropping; after watching 3 minutes of the DNC I believe it.

They're "reporting" 800,000+ on the book cooking!!

The real number could be double. Liars and cheaters! 😃

Somebody got caught.

- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down its estimate of total employment in March 2024 by a whopping 818,000,

This is the largest downgrade in 15 years.

- WHY IT MATTERS? It means there were 818,000 fewer job gains than first believed from April 2023 through March 2024.

OO_oops Biden/Harris screwed it up again 🤣 Worse than the COVID frame job.

What is the U.S. Unemployment rate now? THE REAL Unemployment rate?

originally posted by: WeMustCare
What is the U.S. Unemployment rate now? THE REAL Unemployment rate?

Well The U6 numbers are a little more accurate. But add a factor of 1.5x to the U6 and you'll get the real UR around 12% for July 2024 😃

US U-6 Unemployment Rate (I:USU6UR)
8.20% for Jul 2024

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Yikes, I heard about some massive downward revisions today to yesteryear’s jobs estimates too.

Traders be shrugging it off like usual, ridin the gravy train.

Don’t worry Trump will save us

originally posted by: ByeByeAmericanPie
a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Yikes, I heard about some massive downward revisions today to yesteryear’s jobs estimates too.

Traders be shrugging it off like usual, ridin the gravy train.

Don’t worry Trump will save us

This was in only one quarter, just ahead of the midterms and in 2021. The news has been reporting today that the 810,000 was the largest adjustment since 2009. By the way, I wonder who was president in 2009?

Wednesday's update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the largest negative revision since 2009. Still, it was slightly less than feared by forecasters, some of whom had warned it could have been as high as 1 million. Market reaction was largely muted.

why is the msm reporting this 2009 timeframe?

Not only did it happen in 2021 but the amount was more and it was in one quarter which calmed recession concerns just ahead of the midterms. Just look at how distorted the 2021 BLS fake job numbers were....

Looking at specific states in its region, the Philadelphia Fed said job growth in Pennsylvania for the second quarter was “essentially flat,” while the BLS had reported job growth of 2.9%.

In New Jersey, payroll jobs fell 1.2% in the second quarter, instead of the 3.4% growth reported by the BLS.

In the president’s home state of Delaware, payroll jobs fell by 4.1%, rather than the 4.5% growth reported by the BLS.

This was election interference and as we see now it is a pattern, a strategy. The msm covers for them.

Biden's commerce secretary Gina Raimondo (who runs the US Bureau of Economic Analysis) is "not familiar" with the Bureau of Labor Statistics which makes up the monthly jobs report

X Source

What is sad, is this cost people dearly. First the redefined recession because they were already in the traditional definition (funny that they had no problem calling out Germany's recession using the old measure). The entire reason for changing it was to "look good".

Next they repeatedly and almost 100% of the time far-overreported on the monthly jobs reports, quietly revising them downward 20-50% a few months later. You throw out 250k and revise down to 150k two months later. IT is only reported the first time. This happened month after month. The key here though is the Fed used that positive job data to keep rates up. Joe and the Dems were bumming people to save face and "look good" and the media played right along, not bothering to dig.

Now it finally catches up and they are nearly a million off of the already quietly revised numbers.

f people and industry were properly aware, the economy might have more naturally contracted and inflation dealt with more organically. Instead we have manipulated tomfackery at its finest.

a reply to: Halfswede

The Biden Admin Has Overcounted New Jobs Almost Every Single Month This Year

this is standard operating procedure

Looks like the BLS should be axed. Another useless government agency wasting money. Imagine all the salaries, expenses and pensions wasted on this useless tax funded agency.

originally posted by: watchitburn

Biden's commerce secretary Gina Raimondo (who runs the US Bureau of Economic Analysis) is "not familiar" with the Bureau of Labor Statistics which makes up the monthly jobs report

X Source

One more Democrat lie. One of the thousands told this week alone. 😀

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Election interference?

Seriously I think you’re giving presidents too much credit. They can’t control the job market.

originally posted by: ByeByeAmericanPie
a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Election interference?

Seriously I think you’re giving presidents too much credit. They can’t control the job market.

The OP is not about presidents control of job markets(which policy does impact) and I never mentioned that. The OP is about how our government, in this case under the Biden administration, has manipulated the "jobs creation" numbers and the MSM is reporting this incorrectly by saying it is the biggest revision of the BLS jobs numbers since 2009. Clearly that is a blatent lie. If you read my OP, the linked article and my subsequent posts I think it will clear it up for you. Thanks

Job growth was “essentially flat” in the second quarter with only 10,500 jobs added, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said.

Republicans are accusing the administration of lying about the employment data in an election year and are demanding answers.

President Biden had boasted about the second-quarter job numbers in the heat of the midterm election campaign, using the BLS report as proof that the nation wasn’t headed for a recession.

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Hey all politicians are guilty of playing God, taking credit when the job market is decent, getting blamed when the job market is in the tank.

Just talking about who the president is and comparing it to the job market implies the president is driving the jobs numbers. It seems like its either a golden calf being worshipped, or a scape goat being banished to the wilderness, these political games you guys play.

I’m not really sure the methodology the BLS uses to estimate job creation and job elimination, and why it got revised lower. Are you? Do your linked articles explain their methodology. Forgive me if I missed that, I just assumed they probably don’t explain why.

Just talking about who the president is and comparing it to the job market implies the president is driving the jobs numbers.

a reply to: ByeByeAmericanPie

The president does drive the job numbers, through Policy.
For example; The Trump administration focused on deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs(mostly on China).There was a great deal of money repatriated due to the tax cuts.These policies directly led to five million more jobs being added than the CBO projected prior to the 2016 election based on the policies Trump campaigned on, additionally Trump policies added more jobs in 2019 alone than the CBO projected would be created during his first three years in office.The unemployment rate was 1.4 percentage points lower than the CBO's pre-election projection. And of course inflation hovered at 1.4 percent- all this was attributed to the Policies Trump ran on an implemented as president.

I’m not really sure the methodology the BLS uses to estimate job creation and job elimination, and why it got revised lower. Are you?

Each month, approximately 119,000 businesses and government agencies, associated with approximately 629,000 individual worksites are sent survey's.

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

That’s just moving money around, not creating jobs.

And yeah I know the BLS surveys businesses and individuals to estimate job creation or contraction. But why did they revise their estimates lower from previous surveys?

Do your links explain why?

originally posted by: ByeByeAmericanPie
a reply to: fringeofthefringe

That’s just moving money around, not creating jobs.

And yeah I know the BLS surveys businesses and individuals to estimate job creation or contraction. But why did they revise their estimates lower from previous surveys?

Do your links explain why?

No and we really dont get a good explanation which is why there have been some who are saying the employment numbers are being propped up for election purposes and corrected later. The most recent correction of 810,000 has been "leaked", they did not want to make public yet.

Here is some more info on how the BLM accumilates the data and makes it's projections.

Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of industry and occupational employment are developed in a series of six interrelated steps, each of which is based on a different procedure or model and assumptions: labor force, aggregate economy, final demand (GDP) by consuming sector and product, industry output, industry employment, and employment and openings by occupation. The results produced by each step are key inputs to following steps, and the sequence may be repeated multiple times to allow feedback and to ensure consistency. Further detail is presented in the BLS Handbook of Methods. This flow chart illustrates the six step process:

BLM process for employment numbers

That’s just moving money around, not creating jobs.

Not sure what you mean here? The policies are what drives economic growth, job creation. Not moving forward with the Keystone pipeline was a bad policy. Adding the regulations back to businesses that were cut by Trump was bad policy. Open borders is bad policy. The "Green New Deal" is bad policy.These policies, among others, have lead to a weaker economy and have negatively impacted job growth. Most of the jobs added under Biden were due to the end of the pandemic.

a reply to: xuenchen

Isn't "cooking the books" illegal? Was the entry labeled correctly?

I think some people could be charged with felonies, right? Isn't that how this works?

Since Kamala was in office at the time and she's running for President, they need to hurry up with her portion of the case.

Throw her in jail!

a reply to: fringeofthefringe

Doesn’t sound like either of us can figure out the reason these estimates were revised lower.

Just keeping it simple at this point, robbing Peter to pay Paul does not create jobs.

As for your Keystone comment, maybe you can help me check my chemistry.

Do you know if this is the correct formula for burning tar?

2 C4H6O6 + 5 O2 = 8 CO2 + 6 H2O

I couldn’t find the formula online and tried to figure it out on my own. If you can help me find my error, if I made one, I will be most appreciative.