Estimates of annual U.S. job growth cut by 818,000 to 2.1 million largest since 2009

That's the largest drop since 2009. Hmmm, now who was President in 2009?

Im sure it was just a tabulation error...right



For this to drop during the Democratic National Convention when so many speakers have talked about the joy of the economy and job market, it seems like they have been blowing sunshine up thier constituency's collective skirts. When they should have been blowing raspberries, as they said in 1992 it's the economy stupid. Fix that and everything else settles down, ignore it or misrepresenting it's numbers isn't exactly a trust-building moment for the Democrats

Or did they hope it's importance would be lost during the hubbub of the convention?

Here's one topic I agree with Ms Shanahan from the Kennedy/Shanahan ticket, pretty much word for word




www.msn.com...

Aug. 21 (UPI) -- The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down estimates of U.S. nonfarm payroll jobs created in the 12 months ending in March 2024.

The BLS revised the one-year estimate down by 818,000 a 0.5% reduction from the initial report the biggest downward revision since 2009.

"The labor market appears weaker than originally reported. A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting," Chief LPL Financial economist Jeffrey Roach told CNBC.

According to the BLS, the biggest revised preliminary jobs numbers came in professional and business services with -358,000, followed by leisure and hospitality with -150,000.
Retail trade jobs were -129,000 while manufacturing jobs were preliminarily estimated to be 115,000 lower than first reported.
The original estimate of jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 was 2.9 million.

The BLS said jobs numbers are routinely estimated by the Current Employment Statistics survey estimates, based on state unemployment insurance tax records employers are required to file but the estimated revised downward Wednesday is not final.

a reply to: putnam6

Powell better make some decisions soon... rates need to be cut.

a reply to: putnam6

What they don't say is how many illegal immigrants have entered the job market while legal residents are struggling to find work.

Remove illegal residents and only count legal citizens for a more accurate picture of just how depressed the job market truly is.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: putnam6

Powell better make some decisions soon... rates need to be cut.

I don’t think it’s quite that simple.

There are two consequences of cutting too soon.

Housing market surges again, making them hard to find and expensive.

And more loans get created, which means more currency into circulation, increasing already high inflation.

The downside to keeping them “high” is it slows areas of growth in the broader economy. The reason I put high in quotations is because if you compare the rates to the last 60 years, this is in an average range. It’s only high because of the contrast we have from COVID near zero lows, and the post 08’ lows.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

The numbers are now reflecting that a lot of the job markets are either stagnant or not getting investment, or little investment anymore, and thus job loses.

Also, the boom in tech during covid had a big impact on job loss as well, a lot of people were laid off or had their work visas expire and not renewed.
So Powell needs to start making big decisions for the near future. You're right tho, a sudden shock of rate cuts isn't a good thing.

Sounds like we may be headed for a recession, the question is to what depth and for how long. Anything close to 2007-2009 would be a tough pill to swallow

www.investopedia.com...

The Great Recession: December 2007–June 2009
Duration: Eighteen months
GDP decline: 4.3%
Peak unemployment rate: 9.5%
Reasons and causes: The nationwide downturn in U.S. housing prices triggered a global financial crisis, a bear market in stocks that had the S&P 500 down 57% at the lows, and the worst economic downturn since the recession of 1937-38.
40
Global investment flows into the U.S. had kept market rates low, likely encouraging unscrupulous mortgage underwriting and mortgage-backed securities marketing practices.
41
Oil prices spiked to record highs by mid-2008 and then crashed, depressing the U.S. oil industry. Dropping oil and commodity prices led to deflation and strained the U.S. economy.

www.cnbc.com...

At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000), and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000).

Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.

A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400), and other services (21,000).

Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000.

Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023. There have been concerns, though, that the labor market is starting to weaken, with the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% representing a 0.8 percentage point gain from the 12-month low and triggering a historically accurate measure known as the “Sahm Rule” that indicates an economy in recession.

a reply to: strongfp

It’s the housing market that concerns me the most.

Usually the free market is pretty quick at reconciling itself even with turbulence, but mortgages are pretty unique in that they’re 15-30 years.

So the interest rates went near zero causing a huge buying pressure. House prices went up. The theory was once interest rates went up house prices would come down, that’s not the case though. Why would someone want to sell when that means they either have to get another mortgage at a higher rate, or they’re going to be buying into the same high price market they’re selling into?

I think it’s going to take a few more years before we see any kind of relief on that front.

Everyone’s working 3 damn jobs to make ends meet.

Where are they reporting on that?

5% my ass. It’s a lot higher than that.

originally posted by: pianopraze
Everyone’s working 3 damn jobs to make ends meet.

Where are they reporting on that?

5% my ass. It’s a lot higher than that.

They're "reporting" 800,000+ on the book cooking!!

The real number could be double. Liars and cheaters! 😃

Somebody got caught.

- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down its estimate of total employment in March 2024 by a whopping 818,000,

This is the largest downgrade in 15 years.

- WHY IT MATTERS? It means there were 818,000 fewer job gains than first believed from April 2023 through March 2024.

OO_oops Biden/Harris screwed it up again 🤣 Worse than the COVID frame job.

a reply to: putnam6

Interesting read

4 in 10 companies say they’ve posted a fake job this year—what that actually means - LINK

That goes against the user policy of many of these job boards. A spokesperson from LinkedIn tells CNBC Make It that “we require recruiters to post jobs only if they intend to hire a candidate for the specific position indicated.” ZipRecruiter responded to a request for comment with its job posting rules page that states submissions must reflect “a real and current job opening.”

Still, a majority, 7 in 10, hiring managers say the practice of posting fake job listings is “morally acceptable.”

Why spend the time and effort to advertise a job that’s not actually open?

That job you applied for might not exist. Here's what's behind a boom in "ghost jobs." - LINK



Nearly 40% of employers posted fake job ads over past year, according to survey - LINK

a reply to: xuenchen

I think you’re going to be surprised that the big cheat wasn’t the job numbers originally, but that this revision might get a half point interest rate cut instead of a quarter point.

For the record, I’m not sold that a cut is needed at all yet.

But should it drop by a half point, the stock market will likely have quite the rally.

Now, everyone knows Wall Street and Main Street are two different things to the voter, but it will give fodder about the economy to the incumbent party.

That’s how I personally see this playing out, though I think it will be very superficial. I don’t think Biden or Harris should be able to claim credit for something that was inevitable, just the timing worked out for them.

www.msn.com... from ops link this is what i found to be most interesting

The BLS revised the one-year estimate down by 818,000 a 0.5% reduction from the initial report the biggest downward revision since 2009. The original estimate of jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 was 2.9 million. The BLS said jobs numbers are routinely estimated by the Current Employment Statistics survey estimates, based on state unemployment insurance tax records employers are required to file but the estimated revised downward Wednesday is not final. "The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued," the BLS said. That final revision will be published in February 2025.

so we dont get to get the actual job numbers tell feb? you mean after the election that dems have been touting a stellar economy for months?and that jobs are everywhere to be found? this stinks to high heaven and with the poster above me adding more context of a possible rate cut they can yammer on about looks even worse

a reply to: putnam6

I can't wait to here Kamala say how great things are going and how she'll make things better since they're not as great as they could be. Then she'll do her Scooby Doo laugh.

originally posted by: tarantulabite1
a reply to: putnam6

Interesting read

4 in 10 companies say they’ve posted a fake job this year—what that actually means - LINK

That goes against the user policy of many of these job boards. A spokesperson from LinkedIn tells CNBC Make It that “we require recruiters to post jobs only if they intend to hire a candidate for the specific position indicated.” ZipRecruiter responded to a request for comment with its job posting rules page that states submissions must reflect “a real and current job opening.”

Still, a majority, 7 in 10, hiring managers say the practice of posting fake job listings is “morally acceptable.”

Why spend the time and effort to advertise a job that’s not actually open?

That job you applied for might not exist. Here's what's behind a boom in "ghost jobs." - LINK

Nearly 40% of employers posted fake job ads over past year, according to survey - LINK

Hell I believe it, one company I worked for ran ads in the trade mags constantly looking for warehouse and home office personnel and always had openings in his sales force and territories available, when it just wasn't the case.

When confronted he said it made the company look as if it was growing, without realizing it chopped the sales force off at its knees because the customer base reads the same ads. When they do they wonder why a company is getting rid of a 10-15 year solid sales representative.

originally posted by: strongfp
a reply to: putnam6

Powell better make some decisions soon... rates need to be cut.

Powell must cut, but you can't blame him; he was relying on Biden jobs data that turned out to be...LIES...

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Yes of course the interest rate cut is just in time for a great Kamala/Biden "plus". It may even chop a few bucks off a mortgage too while they're at it.

Holding back on these major job report totals was a despicable tactic that has yet to soak in with Democrat die-hards and tuba bellowers. 😀

This latest cheat job is still not the main punchline to be exposed.

There's a few more TNT explosions to happen.

originally posted by: RalagaNarHallas
www.msn.com... from ops link this is what i found to be most interesting

The BLS revised the one-year estimate down by 818,000 a 0.5% reduction from the initial report the biggest downward revision since 2009. The original estimate of jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 was 2.9 million. The BLS said jobs numbers are routinely estimated by the Current Employment Statistics survey estimates, based on state unemployment insurance tax records employers are required to file but the estimated revised downward Wednesday is not final. "The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued," the BLS said. That final revision will be published in February 2025.

so we dont get to get the actual job numbers tell feb? you mean after the election that dems have been touting a stellar economy for months?and that jobs are everywhere to be found? this stinks to high heaven and with the poster above me adding more context of a possible rate cut they can yammer on about looks even worse

That's why I said the real number could easily be double. We already know it's rigged. HOW RIGGED is the question. 😃💥

a reply to: xuenchen

It’s a gloves off election. Keep in mind I’m alleging that’s what they did, which I’d bet on.

It’s also alleged Trump talked to Netanyahu to scuttle the cease fire. Anonymous sources, so block of salt and all that.