One candidate stands out in popularity, by a significant margin

FiveThirtyEight is one of the nations foremost pollsters, often quoted by many, even at a time when polling in general is losing appeal to all sides. These days, it appears most people either don't want to answer their phones -- normally cell phones these days -- or they choose to do polls online, which can be much less accurate. It is harder to get honest information out of people and much more difficult to do follow up interviews. All of this, and many other factors, make polling pretty inaccurate these days.

However, that does not mean that we can't follow the trends from the same pollsters, because that is more accurate. What I mean is, if you follow weeks or months of polls from one pollster, who always uses the same methodology regardless of its flaws, you can see the trend moving up or down, even if the final numbers may be inaccurate.

In these following graphs, we can follow the trend of the four Pres/VP candidates, and how their favorability has moved over the last few weeks, or months.

________

First, we have Donald Trump, at 8.2% NEGATIVE favorability. However, you can see that his favorability has improved since the assassination attempt on July 13. For the three months preceding it, his overall favorability was hovering between negative 10 and 12, and has dropped 3 to 4 points since then.


________

Second is Kamala Harris, and we can see she was widely unpopular before her entrance as the primary on the ticket. She currently stands at 5.3% NEGATIVE overall favorability, while just a month before her candidacy she was at a -17%.


________

The third graph is for JD Vance, who has surpassed Donald Trump in unfavorability, and currently stands at NEGATIVE 9.4%. He is the only candidate who keeps getting more unpopular. A month ago he was between -5 and -6, but while his favorability seems to remain steady, his unfavorability is increasing, skewing the overall score to nearly -10%.


________

The last is Tim Walz, and he doesn't have a graph yet because he's a new arrival, but they do show some of the polling they use/support. Walz averages out to a POSITIVE 7.4% favorability, the only candidate that is in the black, so to speak. He commands an almost 17 point lead over his counterpart, JD Vance. That is impressive, and with less than three months to go and early mail voting in some states starting in one month, it's hard to imagine much of a change. But you never know...




ETA: It appears it needs to be explained how to read these graphs I posted, and inside the links. The overall score is in the upper right corner of the graph, and is in color of what the overall favorability is. If it is in negative, the overall score is also in orange. To get to that score you have to subtract the two ratings to get the overall one. So, for example, if Trump is 51.6% unfavorable, and 43.4% favorable, his overall is negative 8.2%.

I smell desperation.

And polls that oversample democrats by 10 - 30%..

Try harder next time.

a reply to: Mahogani

Can you be certain that those polled are or aren't the same AI people in the AI photos?

Just curious....

originally posted by: watchitburn
I smell desperation.

And polls that oversample democrats by 10 - 30%..

Try harder next time.

Thank you for gleaning over all this information. If you get the time, I'd recommend reading all of it.

originally posted by: watchitburn
I smell desperation.

And polls that oversample democrats by 10 - 30%..

Try harder next time.

Are you not entertained?

I sir, am entertained!

originally posted by: watchitburn
I smell desperation.

And polls that oversample democrats by 10 - 30%..

Try harder next time.

An extreme amount of desperation .

Mahogani's posting rate of late is very high , He's Trying very hard to prop up Kamala .

Gaslighting is a form of emotional abuse where one person’s psychological manipulation causes another person to question their reality1234. Gaslighters undermine the trust a person has in their reality, leading victims to doubt their memory, perception, and sanity.

Gaslighting is all the left has.

It doesn't work on me

The positive reinforcement is out en mass today!

How many lights do you see?

4!

Wrong there are 5!

How many lights do you see!?

How do you feel about Kamala?

She is stupid and I dislike her

Wrong! She is amazing and everyone loves her!

How do you feel about Kamala?

a reply to: Mahogani

a reply to: Mahogani

Yes, you should hold your breath and stomp your feet in protest.

a reply to: Mahogani

Well that's it then.

The majority of people want open borders, higher fuel costs, higher taxes, inflation and more wars.

I follow 538.

It is an accumulation of multiple polls.

It is the closest to accurate we’re gonna get.

Yes — interesting to follow the trend and how specific events sway the polls.

Thank you for posting that info.

a reply to: Mahogani

FiveThirtyEight, according to ABC News, leans left.

According to ABC News.

LOL

Which means to the common American that they lean a little left of Stalin.

Is that fear I smell?

I think it is.

I don't give a crap what percentage of Americans are fooled by those polls. The idea is to make people believe that if they vote for the winner of the poll , they are on the winning team. It is a way of controlling people and has been used for many decades. It's BS and the Liberals improperly use this to deceive people much more than Conservatives do. It seems like li berals and progressives think everyone else other than their followers are stupid.

Research what I said, it is a common practice used in politics at all levels of government.

a reply to: Mahogani


Your own graphs show Trumps favorability at 43.4 and Kamala's is 43.2

I wouldn't say it really "stands out" but yes, Trump is in the lead.

LOL.

originally posted by: Annee
I follow 538.

It is an accumulation of multiple polls.

It is the closest to accurate we’re gonna get.

Yes — interesting to follow the trend and how specific events sway the polls.

Thank you for posting that info.

FiveThirtyEight had Clinton winning in 2016 by a wide margin.

I understand why you don't understand the significance of that.

a reply to: Mahogani

Wow.

That's something alright.🥱💤

Would you mind sharing what policies and future plans Harris has for the country that garners this alleged support from you and these alleged supporters?🤔

I can't seem to find anything in that regard on her site. 🤷🏻

You're obviously going to be voting for her, or denying it but still doing it anyway, or penciling in your favorite Muppet, but either way, she has no platform!

Meaning, that everyone who supports her is, and hold on to something, just FINE with the way things are right now!! They're NOT holding her accountable or are requesting revisions to their current state of affairs and policies. They are voting for candidates that only stress one topic and it starts with a "T".

Lowbrow hedonistic lemmings dragging the world into utter ruin.

a reply to: Mahogani

Cool cool, FiveThirtyEight had Trump at 13% favorability in 2016. Keep pumping these out, I smell deja vu.

originally posted by: wAnchorofCarp
a reply to: Mahogani

Can you be certain that those polled are or aren't the same AI people in the AI photos?

Just curious....

Betcha a smooth million they think those people were just tall and dressed the same, nevermind all the other inaccuracies. Po little dems 😂

She's so very popular among the lemmings that dont even know what her policies are or how she's going to pay for them. Man ... people are idiots.