Follow The Money - Betting Odds On The Presidency

a reply to: quintessentone

Yeah.....I think we're way beyond that being an argument against doing things. The government is built upon wasting tax payer dollars. So instead of wasting our money giving illegals cell phones and food stamps and gift cards and putting them up in ritzy hotels, or paying our useless 'representatives' exorbitant salaries, or funding federal bureaucracies that only exist for the sake of themselves, or funding the defense funds of other countries who give nothing in return, or sending billions and billions to Ukraine so Herr Zelinsky can keep taking lavish trips across the globe, we could investigate some of the rampant and deep seated corruption within our government and maybe hold some people accountable. It's a novel idea, I know.

originally posted by: MrGashler
a reply to: quintessentone

Yeah.....I think we're way beyond that being an argument against doing things. The government is built upon wasting tax payer dollars. So instead of wasting our money giving illegals cell phones and food stamps and gift cards and putting them up in ritzy hotels, or paying our useless 'representatives' exorbitant salaries, or funding federal bureaucracies that only exist for the sake of themselves, or funding the defense funds of other countries who give nothing in return, or sending billions and billions to Ukraine so Herr Zelinsky can keep taking lavish trips across the globe, we could investigate some of the rampant and deep seated corruption within our government and maybe hold some people accountable. It's a novel idea, I know.

Yeah...so same old same old then, no matter who is elected?

originally posted by: quintessentone
Waste of taxpayer dollars.

What was a waste of taxpayer dollars was New York going after Trump over what amounted to a bookkeeping error ... a misdemeanor that was past the statute of limitations ... raising it to the level of a felony and claiming it wasn't past statute of limitations .... and it was about a bookkeeping error that wasn't even about something that was against the law ... all to go after a guy named Trump for political reasons . You do realize that Trump having sex with a porn star and then paying her to be quiet about it was an agreement between them and not against the law, right? No? Well it wasn't against the law.

THAT is what a waste of taxpayer dollars looks like.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

originally posted by: quintessentone
Waste of taxpayer dollars.

What was a waste of taxpayer dollars was New York going after Trump over what amounted to a bookkeeping error ... a misdemeanor that was past the statute of limitations ... raising it to the level of a felony and claiming it wasn't past statute of limitations .... and it was about a bookkeeping error that wasn't even about something that was against the law ... all to go after a guy named Trump for political reasons . You do realize that Trump having sex with a porn star and then paying her to be quiet about it was an agreement between them and not against the law, right? No? Well it wasn't against the law.

THAT is what a waste of taxpayer dollars looks like.

I don't disagree with you, but both sides do it and Trump is threatening to do it to multiple people. Sheesh get a clue.

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

Vegas says...

-172 odds is about 63.5% implied probability (Trump)
+500 is about 16.6% (Harris)
+1500 is about 6.25% (Biden)

As of now Trump is 10 times more likely to win the presidency than Biden. This is like Walter Mondale sh*t now. Is stubborn Joe going to take the democrats down with him?

It's kind of a tall order to upending this momentum in 4 months. And it's not looking like there's going to be a viral undoing this time. Trump is way ahead of his Feb 2020 numbers, which were great.

Democrats have to pivot now. 6.25% implied odds is terrible. It is unrecoverable. He needs to take his time in "covid isolation" to reflect and do the honorable thing. Drop out. He will take the entire party down with him if he doesn't.

He was doomed from the start because his election was an aberration. A derailment into a tangent universe where China let's a virus on to a cruise ship and some jackass racist cop releases another virus entirely.

He was going to return us to "candidate quality," remember? "Candidate quality matters," said Mitch McConnell. And Biden sure showed his "qualmmmblitmvvies" as the most intelligible orator of our time. One I'm starting to think let a crackhead influence his policy decisions.

He faded significantly with "Bidenflation" and "11 million immigrants in 4 years."

Then "a crazed anti-republican kid." Instead of causing a civil war had he been successful, gave Trump God's endorsement.

This is done so long as Joe is the pick, and most certainly even if he isn't.

a reply to: quintessentone

You'll notice that I didn't say anything like that.
Are you capable of engaging in a conversation in any meaningful way at all or is it always like trying to talk to a 7 year old with you?

a reply to: quintessentone

Who did the republicans do it to?
What is Trump threatening to do exactly?
You are legitimately infuriating to try to interact with.

a reply to: Degradation33

Instead of causing a civil war had he been successful, gave Trump God's endorsement.

I think there are more than a few people looking at that right now, and it becomes a bandwagon effect.
Some people are saying they never voted for him in 2016 or 2020 but they will in 2024, if even that is 5% of the population we could be looking at a Reagan vs Mondale circa 1984 scenario in 2024.
Can you imagine the down ticket carnage for the Democrats if that happens?
This is what has them really scared, because it will be more Trumpers getting in than RINOs this time.
Losing all three electoral bodies, this is why they are pushing Biden so hard to get out.

Now click that link and look at the odds.

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
Now click that link and look at the odds.

Massive drops in all the swing states for Republicans in the last day.
A vast chunk of the favourable odds in those swing states has been wiped out.

My sense is that trend will continue and Democrats will be big betting favourites after their convention.

The World is Watching

Trump is now certain to win the presidency

It has happened. Two conclusions seem inevitable. First, that we are looking at a second Trump presidency, barring an act of God. Second, that between now and November lie four months of relentless identity politics.

Welcome to the American election 2024, Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris edition. With Joe Biden succumbing this evening to the ravages of age and Covid, he used whatever judgment he had left to nominate Harris as his heir and successor.

Betting odds are moving towards Harris - massive swing away from Trump in the last week.
Back down to below 59% for Trump now, heading towards 50/50.

Trump now below 50% in the betting odds - with Harris now winning the election according to bets.
www.electionbettingodds.com...

Harris now moves up to over 51% in the betting odds - first time over 50%
Trump has dropped to 46%.

Looks like trump chose the wrong running mate in Vance; he should have chosen Nikki!

www.covers.com...

Vegas odds......

www.thelines.com...

a reply to: lilzazz

I don’t think Vance is what’s weighing him down.

Trump does better when he focuses on the issues, not his opponent.

Right now, the public sees his messaging as solely focusing on the opponents.

There’s enough data to show when he’s calm and calculated he kills the polls. I just think he likes stirring the pot too much.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: lilzazz

I don’t think Vance is what’s weighing him down.

Trump does better when he focuses on the issues, not his opponent.

Right now, the public sees his messaging as solely focusing on the opponents.

There’s enough data to show when he’s calm and calculated he kills the polls. I just think he likes stirring the pot too much.

Unfortunately, he is a dumb ass.
I don't believe for a second he's been advised to run his campaign the way he is - he just can't help himself.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: lilzazz

I don’t think Vance is what’s weighing him down.

Apparently many in the GOP don't agree with you!


x.com...

a reply to: UKTruth

It’s just surprising, after the debate I noticed how many people were just absolutely stunned by the new candidate they were looking at.

There were discussions of Biden stepping down, and it didn’t matter. People were under the assumption they were dealing with a different and evolved animal.

a reply to: lilzazz

You think those posts are from people who are voting for Trump?

I have not heard from one person I know who is voting for Trump (again) they have an issue with Vance. Not one.

Vance will bring in/assure more voters than Walz for sure. There could not be more contrast.