originally posted by: RussianTroll
Hello ATS!
......
Please explain this paradox to me. Why did traditional families calmly manage and manage 17 children, while modern families believe that children are
insanely expensive, so that it is wiser for middle-income spouses to limit themselves to a cat or a dog?
There are 3 main reasons for the decrease in the size of families over--let' say--the last 125 years or so, and they're all mutually reinforcing, in
my opinion. They're also not limited to Western countries, either. Those 3 reasons are industrialization, urbanization, and the information
revolution.
Let's start with the information revolution, which we might say started around 1450, with the Gutenberg Press. That allowed the relatively cheap and
prolific distribution of written knowledge by about a factor of 10 only 50 years later. By another century or so scientists and scholars throughout
Europe and the greater world were routinely exchanging knowledge freely in written form and that set the stage for the so-called Scientific
Revolution. By another century or so after that, the Scientific Revolution was complete, which set the stage for the first Industrial Revolution.
Knowledge learned and disseminated in the Scientific Revolution transformed economic production from hand methods to machines, introduced chemical
manufacturing and iron production, increased use of water power and steam power, allowed invention of machine tools, and the rise of mechanized
factories, steam locomotives, and ships, etc. Economic output greatly increased, and the result was an unprecedented rise in population and the rate
of population growth. So industrialization pushed most of the economic productivity of a nation away from muscle power and toward mechanical power and
brain power.
Industry required large concentrations of population located near the factories in which they worked. At the same time, large surpluses of goods and
services concentrated in population centers--such as education and cultural activities like art, theater, restaurants, etc. caused those centers to be
more attractive places to live for many people. So urbanization inevitably followed industrialization. In 1800, only about 6% of the US population
lived in urban environments. By 1900, that had gone up to 40%. By 2000, it was 80%. It is on track to reach 90% by 2050.
All 3 of these factors disincentivize large families. In a rural, pre-industrial setting, children are basically free labor, and muscle-powered
labor is where most of the economic activity is in those societies. Furthermore, most of the knowledge and skills needed to herd animals or plant and
harvest crops can easily be transferred from average parents to average children at a fairly early age, so children become economic assets fairly
early in their lives. In urban settings, there are no farms or ranches for kids to work on and living spaces are highly constrained. In that setting,
kids basically become expensive pets, unable to earn their own keep until at least the teenage years. Furthermore, in a post-industrial society, the
ability to personally plant and harvest wheat or milk a cow does not add much economic value even if it is available as a job. In a modern society, at
least 12 years of education is necessary to give a kid the basic ability to add economic value to society. And frankly, educating a kid to be high
functioning in modern society such as in STEM subjects is beyond the capability of average parents. We need specialized educational institutions like
universities to prepare kids to be able to contribute at high levels.
And, to come full circle, the scientific knowledge revolution is what has given individual women and men effective birth control methods so they can
exercise more control over whether and when to procreate. Given that ability, more people are choosing to invest in quality child-rearing instead of
quantity.
And collectively, we're not going back to the old ways anytime soon.