Biden Says Israel Should Not Occupy Gaza Amid Expected Invasion "Big Mistake"

originally posted by: DAVID64
a reply to: FlyersFan

Plausible deniability.

When Israel attacks Gaza and Iran jumps in along with other Muslim countries against Israel, we WILL be dragged in to this. Biden can always say "I told'em not to do it" while the MIC is drooling over his shoulder. Joe gets re elected and we continue getting the shaft.

The Saudis may even threaten to cut off oil if we get involved and since Joe has drained our reserves, we'll dance to whatever tune they play.

Biden, the Democrats and RINOs have backed us in to one hell of a corner.

Despite what they might threaten, Iran lacks the "Force Projection" Capability to directly confront Israel's military with its own forces.

Hence Iran's on-going strategy to bedevil Israel (and several other countries in the ME) via "proxy" forces, like Hamas and Hezbollah.


Isreal, on the other hand, is in a much better position to strike directly at Iran. But even though Israel has more, better, and newer military assets than Iran, and is therefore in a much better position to project force against Iran, Isreal would still face serious logistical hurdles in doing so.


Unless.....


Israel's improved relations with Saudi Arabia results in SA allowing Israel's air force to launch, at least its initial "softening-up", air attacks from Saudi airbases. These would likely be just the opening salvos, designed to take out Iran's anti-aircraft defenses and its small, and somewhat aged, air force.

The incentive for SA to grant such access? SA really does not want a mass influx of Palestinian refugees (like most of the other Arab nations), especially since there is always the possibility of Hamas cells being mixed in (or forming while in exile in SA), the presence of Israel's IDF, especially its air force, would serve as an effective counter-force/deterrent to attacks upon Saudi oilfields (such protection would also benefit US interests), and would serve to eliminate, or at least seriously delay, the threat SA feels by the development of Iran as a nuclear power...a concern SA shares with Israel.


Israel might also use US airbases in Iraq to stage its campaign against Iran, but that is much riskier route, over potentially hostile airspace. And would necessarily involve the US directly, which is what the administration would like to avoid, if possible, for as long as possible.

There are other options/routes available to Israel, but each poses ever greater difficulty.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
The incentive for SA to grant such access? SA really does not want a mass influx of Palestinian refugees, especially since there is always the possibility of Hamas cells being mixed in (or forming while in exile in SA), the presence of Israel's IDF, especially its air force, would serve as an effective counter-force/deterrent to attacks upon Saudi oilfields (such protection would also benefit US interests), and would serve to eliminate, or at least seriously delay, the threat SA feels by the development of Iran as a nuclear power...a concern SA shares with Israel.

Jordan is a buffer between Israel And Saudi Arabia. It's a long walk from Gaza to S.A. It's Jordan that should be worried about an influx especially if the West Bank gets dragged into an Israeli invasion.

a reply to: LogicalGraphitti

Jordan being "dragged into" this mess is, I think, a given. Less a matter of "If" than of "When", IMO.


The current trajectory has Israel going into Gaza, as their "solution" and response to the recent Hamas attack.

If Iran holds true to its threat, that will mean that Iran will seek confrontation with Israel. But the reality of the situation is that Iran can only force that confrontation through its proxies: Hamas, as is on-going, and Hezbollah, as, and when, a second front opens on the West Bank.

Iran lacks the ability to put Iranian troops on the ground in Israel, and Iran's air force lacks both the numbers and the range to strike at Israel on its own.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: LogicalGraphitti

Jordan being "dragged into" this mess is, I think, a given. Less a matter of "If" than of "When", IMO.


The current trajectory has Israel going into Gaza, as their "solution" and response to the recent Hamas attack.

If Iran holds true to is threat, that will mean that Iran will seek confrontation with Israel. But the reality of the situation is that Iran can only force that confrontation through its proxies: Hamas, as is on-going, and Hezbollah, as, and when, a second front opens on the West Bank.

Iran lacks the ability to put Iranian troops on the ground in Israel, and Iran's air force lacks both the numbers and the range to strike at Israel on its own.

I'm expecting (hoping!) this will blow over. I may be in the minority thinking this way but right now, it's 24x7 news cycle material and getting a lot more attention than it deserves. Most people spend way too much time glued to the TV and are coming up with all kinds of world-ending scenarios. The fighting between Israel and Hamas (and Hezbollah, etc.) has been going on for a long time but there isn't anyone capable or ambitious enough to try and end it. If there were, it wouldn't be an issue in 2023.

iran has troops in syria and bases many, they can invade israel easy watch for it

the robert malley spy scandal proves iran has many friends deep cover inside u.s. government

keep that in mind when deciding who to believe

a reply to: FlyersFan

just read this,

The United States has told some troops, potentially 2,000, to be ready to deploy within 24 hours if notified — instead of the usual 96 hours — to the region and could include units that provide assistance like medical aid if needed, a U.S. official said
Blinken seeks aid breakthrough amid air raid sirens in Israel

saw it first on fox, then tried to find it on the web. on fox they said it wont be combat but advisors and support for Israel troops.

so be ready to go in 24 hrs and not the 96 hrs usually issue the order for. it looks like slo joe is talking out of both side of his a@@ again.

things might be fixin to get deep.

a reply to: BernnieJGato

Most likely medical aid (as stated in the article) and evacuation assistance.

There are thousands of Americans (dual citizenship) in Israel. The US has an obligation to try to provide a means to evacuate them, if need be.

originally posted by: face23785
I said here in a thread months ago about Iran that Israel should not count on the US in any plans against their enemies.

TWO US carrier strike groups isn't enough?
Geezus, what do they want???🤷🏻

FFS, they want us to push the button for them?? Why are we talking aid packages when Israel is one of the richest countries in the world?? The billions we give them every fkn year isn't enough???

Smh.

originally posted by: EternalShadow

originally posted by: face23785
I said here in a thread months ago about Iran that Israel should not count on the US in any plans against their enemies.

TWO US carrier strike groups isn't enough?
Geezus, what do they want???🤷🏻

FFS, they want us to push the button for them?? Why are we talking aid packages when Israel is one of the richest countries in the world?? The billions we give them every fkn year isn't enough???

Smh.

It's easy for the President to move carriers for PR.

Biden and the EU are about to let sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program expire tomorrow.

If he really backed Israel he'd be extending those sanctions. He is carefully avoiding doing anything that will hurt Iran.

Coincidentally, everything we've done to help Ukraine has been carefully designed to avoid hurting Putin as well.