The Proxy War Front is About to Extend

No links, just a handful of thoughts and a few more words.

What is happening in Israel scares me. Not because of the already thousand dead, but because of the many millions more that could happen. My worst case scenario is that what happened in Gaza is a precursor for a larger proxy war, a war between Israel and Iran. And that means an extension of the proxy war between USA and Russia, now being fought through Ukraine.

The sides would be clear if there were to be an Israel-Iran war. On one side you have USA, Europeans and most of the Western world supporting Israel, and on the other you would have Iran's allies Russia and some of the -Stans,and North Korea; potentially China as well though economic aid. Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side, so if there were to be an Israel-Iran war, it would become an extension of what is already happening in Ukraine, it would create a second front in the same war, with exactly the same players on each side.

Proxy war --> all out war?

Is this what we're moving slowly towards - a world war?

a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

Iran has the bomb. That's why they're taking this risk. It will be blackmail or both countries turned into parking lots.

originally posted by: Mahogany
What is happening in Israel scares me. Not because of the already thousand dead, but because of the many millions more that could happen. My worst case scenario is that what happened in Gaza is a precursor for a larger proxy war, a war between Israel and Iran. And that means an extension of the proxy war between USA and Russia, now being fought through Ukraine.

Explain what you mean by "proxy war". My understanding of a proxy war is a war started, or instigated, by major powers, where they do not become directly involved.

Israel is no proxy for anyone. They have spent their short history fighting off belligerent Arab states. Currently, Hamas, who are a proxy of Iran; so it's Iran's proxy versus Israel.

It would be difficult for Israel and Iran to actually have a direct war, beyond the current use of terrorist Hamas and their barbarity, by their paymasters, Iran.

Also, who is Russia's proxy if they are involved in a proxy war with Ukraine. The last I looked, Russia was the occupying a significant portion of Ukraine in a war they started, based on dubious reasons. Ukraine is no proxy, as they are fighting for their survival, but they do have the support of the civilised world.

Personally, I wish Israel and Ukraine the best.

originally posted by: Mahogany
What is happening in Israel scares me.?

Me too. I think this is huge.

originally posted by: Phantom423
Iran has the bomb. That's why they're taking this risk. It will be blackmail or both countries turned into parking lots.

And just who can we thank for that?

Obama sent 400M plus another 1.3B to Iran.

Biden sent 6B to Iran.

And no congressional vote, which is unlawful.

So someone please tell me who to thank.

a reply to: burntheships

Obama sent 400M plus another 1.3B to Iran.

You do realize that money was already heading to Iran anyways. There would of been no way we could of stopped it. They just got it sooner because we cut a deal.

originally posted by: burntheships

originally posted by: Phantom423
Iran has the bomb. That's why they're taking this risk. It will be blackmail or both countries turned into parking lots.

And just who can we thank for that?

Obama sent 400M plus another 1.3B to Iran.

Biden sent 6B to Iran.

And no congressional vote, which is unlawful.

So someone please tell me who to thank.

Donald Trump.

When Obama left office there was an agreement in place that was verifiable by all the signature parties, including the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran had moved 90+% of their enriched Uranium out of the country and destroyed their enrichment centrifuges. They were effectively out of the nuclear weapon business.

Then Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement even after his own national security team verified that Iran had complied. So naturally, Iran withdrew from it also.

By the time Trump left office, Iran was back in the nuclear weapon business.

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

None of the 6 Billion has left Qatar yet.

originally posted by: 1947boomer

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

None of the 6 Billion has left Qatar yet.

So thats how it works?

Things like budgets, allocation, lending and contracts suddenly don't exist?


Oh..you guys.....

a reply to: Mahogany
I doubt the US is “proxy-ing” anything. We don’t really have the ability to get into anything either directly or by supplying anything to a participant.

Biden drained the strategic oil reserves to nothing, for votes in 2022 and actually gave it away to a few countries.

Ukraine has apparently drained our military supplies to dangerously low.

We’re burning money in massive amounts in Ukraine.

We gave away a lot of our money, supplies / equ, and strategic ME position in Afghanistan.

We could get sucked into Taiwan.

Almost sounds like a dedicated plan to bleed us dry and leave us easy pickins for somebody.

So maybe getting us into the ME is a thing.

originally posted by: JinMI

originally posted by: 1947boomer

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

None of the 6 Billion has left Qatar yet.

So thats how it works?

Things like budgets, allocation, lending and contracts suddenly don't exist?


Oh..you guys.....

Not to mention all they have to do is spend 6 B now from existing budget, on immediate terrorism needs.

The Biden gift will simply backfill what they spend now, whenever it shows up. And they can spend it on the “humanitarian” things that they delayed, spending that money on murder instead.

This simpleton’s approach to “explaining” the purity of Iran is so simpleton.

originally posted by: paraphi
Explain what you mean by "proxy war". My understanding of a proxy war is a war started, or instigated, by major powers, where they do not become directly involved.

My context for it is an East-West proxy war.

Ukraine is such because it is not just about Russia and Ukraine. Eastern countries I mentioned are actively helping Russia, the same as the Western countries are helping Ukraine. The East and The West are fighting through Ukraine.

Israel-Iran conflict would be exactly the same, with the same power players supporting predetermined sides. Just a bit more south.

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

Ummm...actually...we don't know that...that 6 billion was set aside in a fund in Qatar (I believe) to be doled out piecemeal when Iran accomplished set goals of the dispersal deal...6 billion deal

While the Iranian government claims it can use the money however it pleases, the Biden administration has repeatedly stressed that the funds are narrowly limited to non-sanctionable purchases like food and medicine, and that they will be subject to strict oversight.

It wasn't just handed over like Obama's pallets of greenbacks...



YouSir

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

It wasn’t a good idea considering they’re a terrorist state. But we didn’t “give” it to them, we unfroze it (which your comment didn’t imply otherwise, just reiterating)

It was an attempt at diplomacy just like we’ve done with other bad actors in the past. Trump had some of the first extended hands with North Korea which was fruitful for a time which is better than nothing.

Ultimately the 6b represents about 1.6% of their GDP, so while it may have slightly emboldened them, I don’t think it tipped the scales in making this happen. I think that Israel’s normalization with other Middle Eastern countries made Iran feel isolated, and even the Islamic countries are getting tired of Iran. Many are starting to prosper and build relations with the global community, and they’re seeing Iran, Hamas, hezbolah and other similar entities are holding the region back.

Iran takes every olive branch as an opportunity to see how they can worsen their own position, just like Palestine. We’re about to find out how that policy works for them.

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: Mahogany

Iran is already helping Russia in Ukraine, giving them military aid, selling them attack drones etc, North Korea is providing the Russians with ammo and artillery shells.

The lines are already drawn, we know who stands on each side

We also know how Iran is spending the 6 billion Biden so graciously freed up for them. I hear they pinky swore not to use it for anything pertaining to weapons; I think they fibbed.

It wasn’t a good idea considering they’re a terrorist state. But we didn’t “give” it to them, we unfroze it (which your comment didn’t imply otherwise, just reiterating)

It was an attempt at diplomacy just like we’ve done with other bad actors in the past. Trump had some of the first extended hands with North Korea which was fruitful for a time which is better than nothing.

Ultimately the 6b represents about 1.6% of their GDP, so while it may have slightly emboldened them, I don’t think it tipped the scales in making this happen. I think that Israel’s normalization with other Middle Eastern countries made Iran feel isolated, and even the Islamic countries are getting tired of Iran. Many are starting to prosper and build relations with the global community, and they’re seeing Iran, Hamas, hezbolah and other similar entities are holding the region back.

Iran takes every olive branch as an opportunity to see how they can worsen their own position, just like Palestine. We’re about to find out how that policy works for them.

a reply to: YouSir

Agreed., it's not like Iran was building hospitals and schools, and doling out antibiotics to the masses. They're not diverting any money they were using on these things, because they weren't spending on these things.

____________


But let's say that it allowed them some of that $6b to finance terror. Let's say some portion of it did. It's still nothing compared to having the backing of Russia.

Completely disregarding the other alliances Iran has, let's just look at Iran and Russia. They are allies, military and economic. They sell food and technology and weaponry to each other. They are like Australia or United Kingdom are to us in the US. They don't need any money from us to finance terrorism, they have plenty of help.

In fact, we're reading here on ATS -- what if Iran helped Hamas? What if they financed them and planned with them? Well, that is very possible, and who does that benefit?

Iran hates Israel and they would not shy away from a war with them, but they can't fight the entire West over it. But if Putin gave them guarantees and promised help, then they would feel emboldened, wouldn't they?

And if the West has to focus on the Middle East and help more allies than just Ukraine, if we have a second front to split resources for, who does that benefit in Ukraine?

a reply to: Mahogany

It would seem that way.

In addition to your thoughts, there is the Sino-Russian treaty of friendship, signed in 2001. If the US were to be directly involved in an open war with Russia, i think this would guarantee China's involvement which would include attacks on Tiawan

en.wikipedia.org...#:~:text=The%20Treaty%20of%20Good%2DNeighborliness,%2C%20on%20July%2016%2C%202001.

Questionable nations like Japan, Turkey, Australia, Brazil, Mexico would also be obligated by different treaties that have formed as well as regional politics drawing even more.

this would also create power vacuums in regions of Africa which would enlarge active internal conflicts.

If this continues, it does not end well for anyone, anywhere.

The times, they are a changin'

a reply to: Phantom423


This is a good possibility, as well as N Korea. Whether from their own efforts or proliferated through Russia.

a reply to: Mahogany


Ummm...as 1947 Boomer stated above...the funds haven't been dispersed to Iran yet...

They're still in Qatari banks...





YouSir