If your house lost 35% Value Where would you be?

I just heard that some are predicting an extreme housing market drop, which will cause prices to be 30-40% of current prices.
Where does that put you?
Would you be underwater?

I’ve seen this happen in the past.
They get everyone drunk on low rates, people overextend themselves. I think some of the student loan stuff was part of it too.
Then all the Covid freebies, like free lunches for kids, PPP loans. Work from home yada yada.

Then a sharp turn, prices up, interest rates sky high, going back in the office, no more free lunch. Many overextended…
Then boom……house prices drop. My guess layoffs will coincide too.
So people will need to sell…….

And Drumroll………..Who will be there like hungry sharks smelling 🩸 in the water????
The rich of course…

Happened during the Great Depression, and many times since. I saw it happen in 2008/9..

a reply to: JAGStorm

I'm interested in reading this.

Most people will be stuck in their mortgages, some will default, and many homes will go into foreclosure.

Many of us have seen this coming for years. I never expected the housing market to bubble quite so much, or for interest rates to go up so high, but when you're prepared for anything, and don't make bad decisions like buying an overpriced home, it's all good.

a reply to: JAGStorm

We currently own a home and are renting one now. The home we own is paid off and we're renting it out to a relative.

When I retire, we're kicking out the relative and moving in after a big remodel.

I'm not buying another home.

Those of us who didn't go all stupid and spend 750k for a 250k house will just shrug and get on with our lives. Others will learn a valuable life lesson.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I'd still have a capital gain of just over $168,000 USD, based on my home's current value (estimated per Trulia).


In the 11 years since I purchased it, my home has appreciated by (approximately) just over 365%.


If I have the cash available, I'll be one of those looking for "bargains"!

a reply to: JAGStorm

I will be in the same home I am living in now with no mortgage payments at all. No interest in moving anywhere ether.

Big time underwater where I'm at now but I don't plan on moving again.

Renting a house out down south and that would be break even territory.

Worst case I'd try and sell the house we are renting and try to level out where we are .

Housing shortage in both locations and right down the road from military bases so decent chance I'll be able to sell either.

a reply to: JAGStorm



I finished building the house I live in now back in 1994..... so, no mortgage and no other debt.

Google layoffs under the news tab.

My house is on the market right now, and I have a two-year lease on another place, so I'm going to ride it for a couple of years to see where prices go. I'm betting they drop about 30% then I'll buy again.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Well, that isn’t what just happened in Ohio… everyone’s taxable value just jumped big time, mine went up 20% ! a month ago.

But we talked the sellers way down and didn’t purchase a bubble price, so to speak.

to be honest i dont really care what the market does. i have lived in my home for many years and will continue to.

Still living in it but with a 35% loss of value I'll be speeding to my municipal building to get my school taxes lowered!
Then county taxes reduced.


A family member has watched their 1950's home increase insanely since purchase. They follow it's appreciated increase
with more focus than a kid playing a video game.At 35% loss we will have to turbo-speed over there with hot tea & Kleenex.
Wait!1 Kleenex might not work. OK will need mop. The drama's gonna be epic.

I would hope my property taxes would go down significantly. Legally, they should, but I expect a struggle.

originally posted by: Montana
Those of us who didn't go all stupid and spend 750k for a 250k house will just shrug and get on with our lives. Others will learn a valuable life lesson.

I learned that lesson in 2008, but not this time

originally posted by: schuyler
I would hope my property taxes would go down significantly. Legally, they should, but I expect a struggle.

I always remember this advice when there's a "struggle".
Social Security, IRS, Municipal workers ect.

Bury them in paperwork, bring balloons, bring snacks & sleeping blanket, bring confetti make SURE the person understands you're staying for how ever long this takes! You're commited to doing whatever it takes for the duration till they are so profoundly tired of looking at you they actually finally do their job just to "OMG make it STOP!!"

Did it with th SSI when they were dumb enough to list bring ALL medical documents to appointment.
By box 3 of documents that they INSISTED be there or risk them closing the file, I'd hush-hushed her cause we had like 10 more boxes of every medical record, INS statement, employer records. Seriously I had brought in all the boxes from car with furniture dolly.
Couple of hrs in the Woman was squealing she didn't have the time for all this!!
"Oh yes you do!! Read the instructions you forced me to adhere too!!"
Person I was assisting (NOT me) got SSI Disability on the spot, the SSI worker prolly still has PTSD.
"The Struggle" is real. Just not for me.

in my county in wash state they doubled the value of all homes..not the land, just the homes. i went down to the courthouse and pitched a very loud and verbal response. my taxes went back down and a lock went on so they dont raise.

I sold close to the top of the market and jumped into a no lease rental while I build something.
It's hard to make an accurate statement about the real estate markets since they vary so much by area.
Buyers still outnumber sellers in most places I mess with.
... the midwest, Tennessee and Florida.

I don't think it's going to be a 2008 situation.
It's not an over-invetory problem.
Materials are staying fairy high, lot prices are high, rates are high, inventory low.
I looks just like a general bad economy, plus high rates and inflation issues compounded.

Inventory is low enough that investors aren't doing well and normal buyers are finding auction properties easier with the internet.

For the first time in history, in some places "used" home prices are surpassing new construction homes.
The combination of builders panic dumping and paying down interest, etc to get a buyer are coming in lower than some regular homes for sale. The homeowner isn't in panic mode to unload inventory fast, is excited by the market jump and are listing with a "let's sit back and see what we can do!" attitude.
Builders are nervous of the economy in general.
Having said that commercial is going to be a gd bloodbath.

We won't be underwater, we live on top of a hill with no debt. but my kids would be in a bad place. Our house is worth nothing because it is not for sale. It will go to one of the kids when we cannot live here anymore. Six years ago our house was worth thirty five percent less than it is now on Zillow. Seems like the prices started jumping up a lot within that six years...

We live in the U.P of Michigan which has snow six months of the year. The wages are not great here, so the prices of houses and rent reflected that before...Now Rent is way too much, especially when the price of heating and electricity is so expensive with the long cold season. I hope prices drop way down and things become affordable in the near future, not for ourselves, but for the young that need a chance at life.