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Originally posted by rogue1
Don't forget the US practically invented modern logistics. Any major war with China would send the US Military-Industrial complex into overdrive, new factories would be established and the priduction of munitions increased exponentially.
Originally posted by rogue1
You should really step back and try and take a real world perspective not some fantasy land.
Originally posted by xmotex
It's worth noting that the US is very blunt about not having a No First Use policy, and if a carrier bit the dust, or was about to, I believe the US would go nuclear first. 5,000 or so sailors dead in a few minutes would not go over well domestically, and some dramatic response would be expected. Possibly a nuclear attack on a PLAN surface group out at sea - I think the US would be careful to avoid any strikes on the Chinese mainland though. That would put a lot of pressure on the Chinese to retaliate against the US proper, something they can do if they want. The US is unlikely to be willing to trade Honolulu or San Diego for Taipei.
The Chinese would most likely retaliate without escalating, IE some kind of very measured nuclear response against a US military target, also in response to internal pressures more than real military necessity.
I don't think any of this is really likely though. Both China and the US have way too much to lose by going to war with each other, we're major trading partners for one thing. For another we're both nuclear powers, and the potential for each side to inflict catastrophic damage on the other is a strong mutual deterrent.
I also think China, with it's burgeoning middle class and increasing impatience with government ineptitude and corruption, is likely to become freer place by itself without outside interference. It's harder to oppress a prosperous people than an impoverished one.
[edit on 22-4-2005 by xmotex]
Originally posted by xmotex
It's worth noting that the US is very blunt about not having a No First Use policy, and if a carrier bit the dust, or was about to, I believe the US would go nuclear first. 5,000 or so sailors dead in a few minutes would not go over well domestically, and some dramatic response would be expected. Possibly a nuclear attack on a PLAN surface group out at sea - I think the US would be careful to avoid any strikes on the Chinese mainland though. That would put a lot of pressure on the Chinese to retaliate against the US proper, something they can do if they want. The US is unlikely to be willing to trade Honolulu or San Diego for Taipei.
The Chinese would most likely retaliate without escalating, IE some kind of very measured nuclear response against a US military target, also in response to internal pressures more than real military necessity.
I don't think any of this is really likely though. Both China and the US have way too much to lose by going to war with each other, we're major trading partners for one thing. For another we're both nuclear powers, and the potential for each side to inflict catastrophic damage on the other is a strong mutual deterrent.
If the US and China go to war, we will blunder into it somehow. It won't be by intent, but by miscalculation. I think both sides will be careful to avoid making moves that are likely to lead to hostilities, but noone can be sure what these moves are. The most dangerous error would be in an underestimation by either the ROC or US about how essential the Chinese consider the Taiwan issue to be to their soveriegnty - a particularly touchy issue given the last couple centuries of their history.
The most likely scenario is more of what we see now, ceremonial displays of naval and air power in the seas around Taiwan, dire growling from the Chinese, and continuing brisk trade by all concerned. Taiwan will eventually enter China's orbit more or less willingly. Not because they're bullied into it, but because that's where the money is going to be, and they aren't stupid.
I also think China, with it's burgeoning middle class and increasing impatience with government ineptitude and corruption, is likely to become freer place by itself without outside interference. It's harder to oppress a prosperous people than an impoverished one.
[edit on 22-4-2005 by xmotex]
Originally posted by WestPoint23
Umm, is that blue and white painted ship part of the PLAN? And I like the way those cruisers look very modern.
West Point, Out.
Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
Originally posted by rogue1
Don't forget the US practically invented modern logistics. Any major war with China would send the US Military-Industrial complex into overdrive, new factories would be established and the priduction of munitions increased exponentially.
It doesn't matter how much you produce and how well you get it to the theater, it's about how well you get it to your troops. We have had trouble doing that and apparently it hasn't been improving.
Not to mention the U.S. military-industrial complex going into overdrive wouldn't be such a pretty thing. We'd lose a lot in other areas. So let's just hope we never have to invade China and instead just stick with Taiwan should we fight China.
Nice pics.. nice ships...
AS I said the PLAN is capable of entrenching themselvs in taiwan and playing out a long drawn war against the USN..
Those FACs, cruisers and SSGs look good for that..
Originally posted by WestPoint23
Nice pics.. nice ships...
AS I said the PLAN is capable of entrenching themselvs in taiwan and playing out a long drawn war against the USN..
Those FACs, cruisers and SSGs look good for that..
How can you use pictures to determine what the ship is capable off?
The PLAN cannot yet fight with the USN over Taiwan.