U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal.

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal.

Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won’t reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment.

The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

www.washingtonpost.com...

It’s Washington Post. I know. But no amount of spin anywhere
can hide how bad this hailed counteroffensive has actually failed.

Also after Bakhmut:

The Ukrainians have for months poured tremendous resources into Bakhmut, including soldiers, ammunition and time, but they have lost control of the city and have made only modest gains in capturing territory around it. And while the close-in, trench-line fighting is different in Bakhmut from the problem of mines in the south, the focus has left some in the Biden administration concerned that overcommitting in the east may have eroded the potency of the counteroffensive in the south.

Something tells me there might be an odds-on probability this “offensive” was designed to fail.

We hear about this big offensive for months - hyped way up.

Then we telegraph what we’re going to do - wtf?

Then it fails - not shocking - and I honestly don’t know who would have thought it would succeed.

None of these occurrences would happen without there being a strategic value. There was value in dragging this out over the summer - lots of value. From NATO admittances to the indirect monetary war that the US has going on with China, this helped.

The logical choice is for Ukraine to cede the territory for full fast track admittance into NATO. The price you pay for being NATO protected and rebuilt is a little bit of territory - seems like a decent deal to me relative to the alternative.

originally posted by: VulcanWerks
Something tells me there might be an odds-on probability this “offensive” was designed to fail.

We hear about this big offensive for months - hyped way up.

Then we telegraph what we’re going to do - wtf?

Then it fails - not shocking - and I honestly don’t know who would have thought it would succeed.

None of these occurrences would happen without there being a strategic value. There was value in dragging this out over the summer - lots of value. From NATO admittances to the indirect monetary war that the US has going on with China, this helped.

The logical choice is for Ukraine to cede the territory for full fast track admittance into NATO. The price you pay for being NATO protected and rebuilt is a little bit of territory - seems like a decent deal to me relative to the alternative.

Reminds me of some chatter how NATO probably knew ahead of time about the success rate in the offensive, and still didn’t care seeing Ukrainians being thrown as pawns into it.

Hence “Ukraine will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian..” from Lindsey Graham.

I like the path we're on. With American weapons and money, Ukraine will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian..

twitter.com...

Let’s say theoretically Ukraine wants to negotiate right now and the bloodshed ends.

Seems like it can’t, as the “donators” would probably be furious.

The only person whom I've come to trust about this whole proxy fuster cluck is Col. Douglas Macgregor. If you've not listened to him, you need to follow that link and give him some ear-time.

The only person whom I've come to trust about this whole proxy fuster cluck is Col. Douglas Macgregor. If you've not listened to him, you need to follow that link and give him some ear-time.

originally posted by: VulcanWerks
Something tells me there might be an odds-on probability this “offensive” was designed to fail.

We hear about this big offensive for months - hyped way up.

Then we telegraph what we’re going to do - wtf?

Then it fails - not shocking - and I honestly don’t know who would have thought it would succeed.

None of these occurrences would happen without there being a strategic value. There was value in dragging this out over the summer - lots of value. From NATO admittances to the indirect monetary war that the US has going on with China, this helped.

The logical choice is for Ukraine to cede the territory for full fast track admittance into NATO. The price you pay for being NATO protected and rebuilt is a little bit of territory - seems like a decent deal to me relative to the alternative.

So billions of dollars of hardware, software, and weapons technology and a NATO battle plan 70 years in the making. is stifled and stalled by Russia's prolific use of 19th-century mines and trenches. When we don't have air superiority?

Shows the extreme value of air power. DIdn't Norman Schwarzkopf basically say, they wouldn't have attempted Desert Storm unless they knew they had complete air superiority?

That was against a lesser opponent on a less challenging battlefield...

Who knows perhaps it was destined to fail, especially if NATO in 70-plus years can't find land-based options to counter WW1-era trenches and WWII-era land mines.

Throw in the value of the cheaper commercial drone tech, looks like we should have spent some of the 800 billion on mitigating drone technology.

Imagine China dropping dozens and dozens of autonomous armed drones from a weather balloon over the US.

originally posted by: incoserv
The only person whom I've come to trust about this whole proxy fuster cluck is Col. Douglas Macgregor. If you've not listened to him, you need to follow that link and give him some ear-time.

Definitely. I’ve been watching him for awhile now. He’s fair and actually speaks on the reality of the situation.

U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal.

Well of course, because they're about to ask Congress for more money. If it were going splendidly there'd be no need to ask for more money to launder.

Any bets on Congressional approval of more funds and weapons? To see more of our children's futures being gifted to that mud stain of a country and BS conflict?

What'll be the next catastrophe we can get into...? Who's next so the dollar doesn't collapse??

This is me - the don, we tried to tell them all of their friends are snitches because they’re all on each other’s contracts.

a reply to: putnam6

I think of it this way, what if the summer offensive was designed to be slow, to keep Russia from doing much, to gain ground slowly, then come winter, the Dnipro freezes, all of a sudden, you can move light weight vehicles and men across the river, move them to the other side of mine fields and start clearing in both directions. Then you have a path way for heavy equipment. That said, what if come winter, Ukraine retakes most of the lost territory and is pushing into Crimea. Would it still be a failed counter-offensive?

Here is my thing, the offensive can still happen the biggest issue is the mine fields. If Ukraine can bypass them, the occupied area is ripe for taking. What happens though if it is successful? what would Russia do, if they face defeat? If they face losing Crimea. If they actually were to lose Russian territory to Ukraine? As the reality is Ukraine is NEVER going back to the Russian Sphere of influence now, it will become NATO, and Russia will never get that back.

My prediction. Summer counter-offensive stalls, as it has, Fall is slow going, Winter comes, and Ukraine gets past the mine fields, and blows through most the territory as ill prepared Russians try to defend. Russia bombs the hell out of Ukraine advances. A new line forms deeper in the occupied territory.

Areas Ukraine tries for:
Push as far into Crimea as they can, get past the swamps. You want your army hitting the Russian Navy, the closer the better.
Push south than East, eliminate the occupied area to reduce your line of defense.
Continue to pound East to the Russian border, take a Russian town, that will REALLY fire them up.

a reply to: Imhere

The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches,

And dead soldiers, thousands and thousands of dead Russian soldiers/conscripts….can’t forget those.

originally posted by: camain
a reply to: putnam6

I think of it this way, what if the summer offensive was designed to be slow, to keep Russia from doing much, to gain ground slowly, then come winter, the Dnipro freezes, all of a sudden, you can move light weight vehicles and men across the river, move them to the other side of mine fields and start clearing in both directions. Then you have a path way for heavy equipment. That said, what if come winter, Ukraine retakes most of the lost territory and is pushing into Crimea. Would it still be a failed counter-offensive?

Here is my thing, the offensive can still happen the biggest issue is the mine fields. If Ukraine can bypass them, the occupied area is ripe for taking. What happens though if it is successful? what would Russia do, if they face defeat? If they face losing Crimea. If they actually were to lose Russian territory to Ukraine? As the reality is Ukraine is NEVER going back to the Russian Sphere of influence now, it will become NATO, and Russia will never get that back.

My prediction. Summer counter-offensive stalls, as it has, Fall is slow going, Winter comes, and Ukraine gets past the mine fields, and blows through most the territory as ill prepared Russians try to defend. Russia bombs the hell out of Ukraine advances. A new line forms deeper in the occupied territory.

Areas Ukraine tries for:
Push as far into Crimea as they can, get past the swamps. You want your army hitting the Russian Navy, the closer the better.
Push south than East, eliminate the occupied area to reduce your line of defense.
Continue to pound East to the Russian border, take a Russian town, that will REALLY fire them up.

So the whole Ukrainian offensive hinges on waiting till December or so and having 14-21 days of subzero weather in the hopes the river freezes solidly enough for heavy vehicles to cross. Im finding mixed information if and how it freezes and for how long.

All the while a few well-placed shells or cluster bombs would render the crossing useless, especially without air support.

Which last I heard was next summer at the earliest.

a reply to: putnam6

Accurate.

If you don't have air superiority, all you're going to get is a meat grinder.

a reply to: Imhere

this is the longest 3 day special operation ever, thats for sure. and as long the allies of ucraine stands strong russia cant win this war. russia will suffer for years because of this useless attack. why for god sake are there so many hoping for the ucraine to loose?

The Ukrainian military is very well trained. Russian soldiers that haven't worked with US allied forces; Have the hurry up and wait syndrome of standing around like guards and walking predetermined routes and checking in at the next hurry up and stand post station.

The U.S. would be wise to stay out of it and just; Enjoy their Hawaiian shirt and back yard grill... As the Ukraine fights to retain it's Independence. As they both can speak the same language; Making all our forces utterly stupid, in a middle of where we don't belong.

You keep falling for the media hype. Like I've said many times, it will a long war.

I was really hoping the Russian army would fold and run. no such luck.

minefields and prepared positions are much easier to defend than attack. the Russian soldiers apparently tolerate that kind of war.

saddens me to see Ukraine lose so many of its young men.

I always thought Putin was brutal but basically reasonable, accumulating power and wealth and running the country as a side gig. now he seems to be irrational. as far as I can tell the responsibility for all this is his and his alone.

originally posted by: Cutepants
You keep falling for the media hype. Like I've said many times, it will a long war.

The levels of copium from you all is astounding...

The fact you will still claim people are falling for media hype meanwhile...

How about you all just admit you were manipulated by the military industrial complex into cheerleading for a corrupt government that was willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of it's young men for a proxy war you all were cheerleading for?

I've been advocating for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia because this outcome was inevitable, and I got called a Putin puppet for pointing out the obvious.

Yet here we are, you claiming people are falling for "media hype". You literally can't make this up.
100% 🤡 🌎

originally posted by: ElGoobero
I was really hoping the Russian army would fold and run. no such luck.

So Ukraine could go back to murdering it's own citizens?

Yeah I'll pass...

The Ukraine government made their bed when they decided to become a US NATO satellite...

originally posted by: JAY1980

originally posted by: Cutepants
You keep falling for the media hype. Like I've said many times, it will a long war.

How about you all just admit you were manipulated by the military industrial complex into cheerleading for a corrupt government that was willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of it's young men for a proxy war you all were cheerleading for?

should we be hoping that Ukraine gets swallowed by Russia? are we supposed to oppose them defending their country?

I've been advocating for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia because this outcome was inevitable, and I got called a Putin puppet for pointing out the obvious.

how about advocating that Putin stop the invasion?

Yet here we are, you claiming people are falling for "media hype". You literally can't make this up.
100% 🤡 🌎

what media hype? for once the media seems to be playing this straight.