Chinese spy balloon got intelligence from sensitive U.S. military sites, despite U.S. efforts

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
Allowing the balloon to loiter for a while was also a great opportunity to provide a whole gob of counter-intelligence / misinformation and disinformation back to the Chinese. It's not like they didn't have time to get setup to do this. Plus, Biden aside, I've got to believe someone was collecting intelligence on exactly what the balloon's payload was doing, just as much as the balloon was attempting to collect intelligence on us. After all, they did send a U-2 up to take a peek at it, and I'm pretty sure they were taking more than pictures.

But hey, maybe I'm giving too much credit.

You are. I worked for the government. They're not as smart as people think they are. And they're always behind. On everything.

The only part of the government that is sometimes on their game is the military, but that had noticeably declined during my career. I was in the Air Force from 2004-2016. It was like night and day from when I entered to when I left.

a reply to: TheRedneck

If you think we don't have at least the same capabilities, and have not gathered similar information on potential opponents, you need to think again. Some of the unconfirmed things that I've heard over the last few years have been mind blowing to put it mildly. The things that have been developed in the black world are far more capable than people even begin to imagine (no I'm not playing the whole "50 years ahead" card, but it's pretty insane in certain areas). Yes, we possibly gave up some damaging information, but we collected some as well, and we certainly have the capability to gather at least as much information if not more.

a reply to: Zaphod58

During that episode, we probably did gather some info on on Chinese technology, but we gathered nothing about Chinese positions, nor can we be certain we are gathering information on the latest technology. On the other hand, China was able to gather data about our strategic defense capabilities and locations.

China observed the US mainland. We observed one of their (expendable) toys.

I'm not saying we don't have the ability to gather information on China. All I am saying is that China gathered some pretty sensitive information, despite all the jamming and monitoring. This (state of technology, especially when it comes to communication and control) is my forte, just as aircraft is yours.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

I'm not talking about that specific incident. I'm talking about in general. Everyone is screaming about how vulnerable we are, and how they can now take us out, and acting like they're years ahead of our capabilities and we can't possibly have information on them of a similar nature, or have anything even close to the capability to do it. There have been multiple brief leaks of equipment that blows anything anyone else has out of the water. To get it where it is, we had to develop some interesting new technologies, which will lead to other new capabilities that can gather interesting information.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I'm not talking about that specific incident.

That's all I am talking about. Generally speaking, the USA has probably the best technology on the planet... generally. However, wars are not won or lost over technology only. China has us outnumbered on manpower. Russia has the capacity to match our technology; Russia doesn't have the financial resources we have, however. Russia also has an advantage in will; while we argue over pronouns, Russians tend to work together (as long as they're not beating on each other). China is rapidly gaining on us in technological progress, matches us at least in economic ability, and has a global lock on semiconductor manufacturing that all our present high-tech relies on.

More important than any of that is preparation. Preparation requires intelligence on the enemy. China now has that, thanks to a lone balloon that our military, under the watchful guise of a Commander-in Chief suffering from dementia, allowed to gather it.

Everyone is screaming about how vulnerable we are, and how they can now take us out, and acting like they're years ahead of our capabilities and we can't possibly have information on them of a similar nature, or have anything even close to the capability to do it.

We are vulnerable, but not because we are weak. We are vulnerable because we have become the bullies on the block and we have been careless enough to let everyone else know our weaknesses. Sooner or later, with sooner being expected, that is going to cost us dearly.

To get it where it is, we had to develop some interesting new technologies, which will lead to other new capabilities that can gather interesting information.

New technologies, yes... magic, no. All technology has limitations, and most of my posts to you have been pointing out those vulnerabilities. Cutting edge tech is what I do.

We used to be a lot more secure... we have oceans to either side of us, a country friendly to us to the north, and a much lesser power to the south. We had a geographic advantage that no other country had. But the world is shrinking... our neighbor to the north, while its people are still friendly to us, is showing some disturbing trends toward breaking that relationship. Our southern neighbor is no long of little concern; we have literally been invaded with our full cooperation. Those oceans are no longer as wide or deep as they once were; missiles today can cross them easily, and submarines can make them irrelevant.

No technology can return us to those days of geographic isolation that kept us safe for so many years. Technology is actually reducing that advantage we once had.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

Russia actually doesn’t have the capability to match us. Their production is laughable in recent years, and has gotten worse. They might have the engineers that can design good technology, but as we’ve seen in Ukraine, technology does make a difference. No, it’s not a magic bullet. But quality does make a big difference over quantity, especially when that quantity is proving to be poorly built, maintained, and upkept. And guess what China uses in 95% of their military. It’s a big reason they’re developing their own technology and equipment so fast.

Information is a huge key to warfare, and we’ve got at least as much information on potential opponents as they have on us. We’ve been doing our own Intelligence gathering for years, and collecting huge amounts of information.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Russia actually doesn’t have the capability to match us. Their production is laughable in recent years, and has gotten worse. They might have the engineers that can design good technology, but as we’ve seen in Ukraine, technology does make a difference.

Ummm... you just repeated what I said. Russia has the technology but not the production.

As for what we've seen in Ukraine, the best comparison would be us in Vietnam. How'd that work out for us? Lousy, because we went in half-cocked. Do you really believe our entire ability to wage war was on full display in Vietnam?

As to our information gathering, have we floated a balloon across China yet? I must have missed that story.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

In Vietnam we weren’t dragging tanks that were decades out of date to send to fight.

As for China, even if we did send a balloon over them do you think it would be admitted. I’m sure their free and open media would be posting stories about it all over the internet. But we have other methods to use. We’ve “accidentally” displayed it several times going down range.

a reply to: Zaphod58

No, in Vietnam our soldiers had to call for permission to return fire to the troops trying to kill them. But I get what you're saying.

I still see a lot of similarities.

Understand, intelligence is more than pictures. There are other forms of information to be obtained, and not all of them can be obtained via satellite. I know the general procedure used by the DoD, and that balloon was particularly disturbing to me.

This thread exists because people in the DoD admitted that sensitive information was obtained. One of our previous disagreements was over that possibility. You claimed the jamming signals used were foolproof and all information was secure; I explained there were several recent developments in communications technology that would cancel jamming attempts.

Looks like I was right.

I defer to your expertise when it comes to aircraft and their capabilities. But when it comes to recent technology and limitations, I believe I have you at a disadvantage.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

I realize the limitations of satellites. I’ve been going on about those limitations for many years, and arguing against people saying we don’t need aircraft to do the mission anymore. There are several new technologies that have been used operationally that the public has no clue about, and possibly never will, beyond rumors and stories.

I didn’t say they were foolproof, I said they were aware of the risks and taking steps to limit the data that was being collected, and that we have a good idea of what frequencies are used to transmit SATCOM data and can limit that use. No system is foolproof, and I’m well aware of that.

a reply to: putnam6

Do we really think that a spy balloon can collect sensitive information from anything United States? If so, the government needs to replace everybody in anything related to everything.

a reply to: Zaphod58

It still seems those systems didn't work very well; else we would not be discussing this in this tread.

As I predicted.

TheRedneck

a reply to: quintessentone

Do we really think that a spy balloon can collect sensitive information from anything United States?

Think, no. Know, yes.

If so, the government needs to replace everybody in anything related to everything.

And that will change the laws of physics?

TheRedneck

originally posted by: quintessentone
a reply to: putnam6

Do we really think that a spy balloon can collect sensitive information from anything United States? If so, the government needs to replace everybody in anything related to everything.

When did ATS become so trusting of everything our government says? I was just a kid in the late 60s and 70s and even then there was distrust in the government. The whole neighborhood nobody trusted any politician Republican or Democrat it didn't matter. It may have been because we were all basically poor, as well as the residue from JFK, RFK, MLK, etc.

Of course, one can fully believe most times TPTB's secrecy does have society's best interests in mind, of course, but maybe sometimes TPTB just says we don't need to know because there would be many embarrassing questions.

Im just posing the question, the article popped up on my news feed and the subject interested me. Of course, I have my opinions, here's one Ive stated before, basically, at what point did the US develop these now super-unknown capabilities? because ever since then TPTB has lied to us, it sounds as if we have had a distinct and very useful intelligence and strategic advantage over both the Russians and China for a while. So much of an advantage, the US uses that to thier extreme maximum utility whenever possible. Our current posture over Taiwan for example, almost suggests we have complete knowledge of China's current strategy and how to counter it. I can see why that puts sand in Xi's shorts and it no doubt irks the ever-loving crap out of Putin too. As it also does now seem we had extremely detailed knowledge of how the Special Military Operation was gonna go down. 

For good measure I'll throw out a WWII analogy, this advantage is even more distinct than the secret knowledge the new tech RADAR gave England in the Battle of Britain. The difference we NOW have actionable intelligence early enough and military weaponry with the region to immediately counter it. If the US was so inclined it could have probably shut down the Russian Special Military Operation, just with its assets in Europe and the UK. The only problem is it couldn't guarantee Europe or the UK wouldn't take a massive first-strike MAD hit from Russia. As well as alienate most of the non-NATO neutral nations

It's a bit sobering to think the US's advantage might be so superior that Russia might be considering even tactical nukes because, with the US intelligence advantage, they become less effective every day.

So in that vein thanks for all the comments, even the ones that suggest I believe this or that balloon theory 100%.

Or those that believe one would trust NBC News or any other mainstream source on any story, without suggesting a potentially better source on the subject at hand. All the while dismissing the story as being too politicized when every story gets politicized now, respectfully not everyone is connected and has a reliable source or personal knowledge

One reason I try and search multiple sources, usually, ones off the beaten path and not MSM as well as hopefully unbiased ones or ask the naive and ill-informed questions here.

I even question those that suggest it's no big deal because the US has secret advanced capabilities to counter this or any other perceivable threat. FWIW I mentioned during the balloon flap, the only people that sounded competent and on top of this were our military and my hopes that they were in charge of the complete US response. FWIW there may be circumstantial evidence thats the case, as it does seem the military was sitting on the knowledge till the politicians started getting briefed and freaked out a bit, and thats when the dust-up occurred. There was clearly quite a bit our elected representatives didn't know, nothing wrong with that perhaps, but it was no doubt true. They didn't shut thier yaps till some were briefed, and the tone changed completely.

a reply to: TheRedneck

Those systems aren’t defensive systems. They’re offensive, designed to gather information. And they work extremely well.

a reply to: Zaphod58

The Chinese systems were. And yes, they worked too well.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

And I’m talking about our systems. And have been all along. Those non balloon, not satellite systems that we have that we use to gather the same information.

Chinese spy balloon didn’t collect any information over US that satellites couldn’t get, Pentagon says

Doug G. Ware
Stars and Stripes • April 3, 2023
WASHINGTON — The Chinese surveillance balloon that hovered over the United States two months ago might have picked up some intelligence from sensitive military sites, but it would be nothing more valuable than what Beijing could already collect with its satellites, the Pentagon said Monday. “We are still doing an assessment of what, exactly, the intel was that China was able to get,” Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon press secretary, told reporters at the Pentagon. “But we do know the steps we took provided little additive value for what they have been able to collect from satellites before.”

MSM is telling us it got data. Semi-MSM (S&S) Pentagon reporter is also saying it got data, but no info on whether or not it was damaging to the US, and if so, to what degree. Again, we (the public) won't know that information for quite some time (if ever).

Side fact: although balloons can be maneuvered in ways satellites cannot, sats can also be equipped with electronic intelligence systems capable of detecting very sensitive signals.
Eavesdropping from space

a reply to: wavelength

The thing with "It got intel" is there is so much that can be classified as intel it's not funny. If it got just about anything, someone can come along and say "it got intel". We'll never know what it got, or if/how it hurts us because anyone that actually knows what it got isn't going to talk and tell what it got.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Information is only worth something if it is used. Are we planning on attacking China? Not to my knowledge. Is China planning on attacking us? I don't know.

I assume you are speaking of either drone or high altitude surveillance.

TheRedneck