US Job Openings Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor, UBS Finds

When it comes to labor market data (or rather "data"), Biden's labor department is a study in contrasts (and pats on shoulders). One day we get a contraction in PMI employment (both manufacturing and services), the other we get a major beat in employment. Then, one day the Household survey shows a plunge in employment (in fact, there has almost been no employment gain in the past 9 months) and a record in multiple jobholders and part-time workers, and the same day the Establishment Survey signals a spike in payrolls (mostly among waiters and bartenders).

...

layoffs are rising far faster than what the DOL's Initial Claims indicates.

US Job Openings Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor, UBS Finds

This may as well be a Part 3, in a series of stories I have been following regarding the antics of the political appointee led Bureau of Labor Statistics (A reporting agency within the Department of Labor.)

They seem unwilling to simply report the facts... repeatedly misstating (or is it lying?) the job market reality we are living in, as if the optics were more important than the reality... (You may have heard that before from some political celebrity leader.)

If you are interested in the story development you can see more here:

Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report

and here:

Philadelphia Fed Admits US Jobs "Overstated" By At Least 1.1 Million

However, as in the abovementioned case of unexpectedly low jobless claims, there may be more here than meets the eye. According to Villanueva, "a range of other measures of job openings suggest normalization in the labor market—softening much more convincingly, often to pre-pandemic levels" - translation: whether on purpose or accidentally, the BLS is fabricating data. Also, the UBS economist flags, job openings are not a great indicator of current labor market conditions—they lagged the last two downturns in the labor market.

So what's the real story?

Well, as usual there is BLS "data" and everyone else... and as UBS cautions, other measures of openings tell a very different story: "Our UBS Evidence Lab data on job listings is weekly and more timely than the BLS series. The last datapoint is for the week of December 31. It shows openings down 30% from the March 2022 peak and only 25% higher than the 2019 average."

How much longer can political "optics" drive this data? Does the Fed care that its actions are being affected by the lack of 'certainty' in these reports, which are supposed to be faithfully represented as a service to the citizens?

Whatever the reason for the discrepancy in this latest labor series, the bigger picture is getting troubling.

We already knew that the employment as measured by the Household survey has been flat since March even as the Establishment survey signaled 2.7 million job gains since then. Shortly thereafter the Philadelphia Fed found that contrary to the BLS "goalseeking" of 1.1 million jobs in Q2 2022, the US actually only added a paltry 10,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2022. As such, the validity and credibility of the US nonfarm payrolls report is suspect at best.

A few weeks ago, Goldman also put the credibility of DOL's weekly jobless claims report under question, when it found that initial claims as measured at the state level without seasonal adjustments or other "fudge factors" were running far higher than what the DOL reports every week.

And now, we can also stick a fork in the JOLTS report, whose accuracy has just been steamrolled by UBS with its finding that job openings - a critical component of the US labor market and the Fed's preferred labor market indiator - are far lower than what the Dept of Labor suggests.

Bottom line: while it is obvious why the Biden admin would try hard to put as much lipstick as it can on US jobs data, the same data when measured with alternative measures shows a far uglier picture, one of a US labor market on the verge of cracking and hardly one meriting consistent rate hikes by the Fed.

Thanks for reading!

I've said all you had to do is look at the streets of the homeless people that will give you the true unemployment situation and not only unemployment situation but the underemployment situation in America.
Actually this is happening all of all around the world there there are shortages of people willing to work due to many handicaps and disabilities and even in the military it has stated that 90%, 90% of the military are on mental drugs yes can you believe that that's a very true.

And many people that say the so called worker shortage is fake keep getting called mean names by huffy-puffy politicians and experts.

The worker shortage fable is part of the created shortages program and helps the price inflation 😎

a reply to: xuenchen

The work shortage is very real even here overseas in Asia there is a backlog of production because the shortage of workers is for real it's it's not only America people it's worldwide right now there's something happening that the news media and the politicians are keeping everybody in the blind

a reply to: Maxmars

The job market is interesting right now as someone on the very ground level minimum wage slave. I can say my job is looking to fire people for no cause, like with no warning at all, management is constantly telling us "if you don't do XYZ you're fired". Like no warnings and we just found out they are watching us work on camera and we are not legally entitled to breaks, only a lunch so everybody is kind of on edge, especially the smokers who want to puff every few hours but are worried that if they do they'll get fired. It was not like this when I started working here 7 years ago at all. I feel like they need to calm down because it's just groceries, it's not that serious dudes, and of course this chases away a lot of long term employees like I see 11 year people just saying that it isn't worth it anymore with all the threats of being fired and quitting and what annoys me about that is now I am one of the only people left with experience that knows how to do really anything at my store beyond basic stuff. But management said it's like this at every store now and it's coming from the top so I guess even though our CEO bragged about jacking up prices during the pandemic just to make bigger profits (not due to inflation) my company is not doing too well or why would they want to treat long term loyal employees like this. Everyone is replaceable until everyone is so new no one knows how to print signage or do yearly inventory.

On the other hand, on a lark i filled out an application for the other grocery store in town and they offered me a job over the phone to start immediately even before my background check came back and at a slightly higher wage than I currently make. Haven't completely decided what to do but I feel like the devil I know is better than the unknown.

Places aren't advertising for help they are taking personal recommendations from current employees. A friend hired in at a new truckstop making $20 an hour as many hours as she wants to work. They pay her $1000 bonus if she finds someone who is not missing for 30 days.

Money talks

$$$$$$$$$$

a reply to: Maxmars

LOL, just as with your other thread, the common factor here is replacing data with "belief", like a religion. And it's done with the same group who's pushing the narrative actively trying to demonize actual "religion". In my estimation, this is yet another nail in the coffin for the existence of clown world. We are deep into it now. It's almost time to pile into that little car.

There has been a terrible shortage of entry level workers in my area for some time, yet many, many people have been jobless and looking, with little success.

Every restaurant, bar, store in the area is short-handed because they 'can't find people willing to work'. I don't believe that for a New York minute.

Small businesses have been hit so hard by inflation all they can do is cut corners to stay in business, and that means using bare minimum employees and saying it's because 'nobody wants to work'.

I know a whole lot of these 'nobody's' that can't even get an application from short-staffed businesses. They can't afford to hire help.

a reply to: nugget1

Businesses are getting cremated by TheRONA scare too 😧

originally posted by: xuenchen
And many people that say the so called worker shortage is fake keep getting called mean names by huffy-puffy politicians and experts.

The worker shortage fable is part of the created shortages program and helps the price inflation

So true. Why just yesterday, January 31st, 2023, I was at my Veterans Administration hospital for a visit and had to take care of some paperwork. The guy that was dealing with me said his office only had 3 people working and things weren't working right because it needed 5 people. He said they couldn't get anybody to fill those other two positions. That sounds like the worker shortage is real. Isn't that what you're saying? If not, sorry if I misread you.

a reply to: Antimony

What about telling your boss that the other store wants to hire you at X wage and see if they will give you a raise to keep you on?

Well I'm having a major problem finding a job, because I only speak English.

originally posted by: RonnieJersey
Well I'm having a major problem finding a job, because I only speak English.

And that shouldn't be a problem in America. English is, after all, our official language.

Job openings tanked since companies by default (thanks 2020) because they discovered fewer employees could legitimately
keep the workplace running. Job openings were culled down to the bone. At least at our place there are still a few long term unfilled jobs. The few who do apply & we hire usually on day one. not only discover it's actually WORK but have no problem
telling the supervisor or Dept Head "Yeah I don't do that" when given a task.

Keeping someone who is texting all day, hanging out just chit chatting with other new hires an getting paid 20 bucks a hour to do it ? You bet we're keeping them cause if they haven't quit by lunchtime it becomes any body is better than no body.
So fewer jobs AND fewer people wanting them.

Our grocery store has no cashiers or stock people under their late 60's to late 70's.
The kids don't even apply cause "that's a crappy job". Beneath them. Plus ain't anyone working weekends anymore.
At some point the Dept Of Labor needs to start counting just how many people are refusing jobs.
It's a huge trend that doesn't get looked at in their statistics.

originally posted by: musicismagic
I've said all you had to do is look at the streets of the homeless people that will give you the true unemployment situation and not only unemployment situation but the underemployment situation in America.
Actually this is happening all of all around the world there there are shortages of people willing to work due to many handicaps and disabilities and even in the military it has stated that 90%, 90% of the military are on mental drugs yes can you believe that that's a very true.

In America, the bums are winning.
How many people are living in the streets has nothing to do with unemployment, because you'll see help wanted signs in the windows of the businesses while the bums are taking a dump on the sidewalk up front.
They're getting paid to not work, in some cities they're given free syringes paid for by tax payers.
The government pays drug dealers to deliver them.

originally posted by: TrulyColorBlind

originally posted by: RonnieJersey
Well I'm having a major problem finding a job, because I only speak English.

And that shouldn't be a problem in America. English is, after all, our official language.

Exactly my point, and I have to know other languages to be employed in this area.
I find it amazing that they don't have to learn English, but we must learn their languages.
I didn't move to anyone else's country.

originally posted by: lordcomac

originally posted by: musicismagic
I've said all you had to do is look at the streets of the homeless people that will give you the true unemployment situation and not only unemployment situation but the underemployment situation in America.
Actually this is happening all of all around the world there there are shortages of people willing to work due to many handicaps and disabilities and even in the military it has stated that 90%, 90% of the military are on mental drugs yes can you believe that that's a very true.

In America, the bums are winning.
How many people are living in the streets has nothing to do with unemployment, because you'll see help wanted signs in the windows of the businesses while the bums are taking a dump on the sidewalk up front.
They're getting paid to not work, in some cities they're given free syringes paid for by tax payers.
The government pays drug dealers to deliver them.

Very few people in my area actually go to work - a decade ago, there were no cars parked on the local roads during the day, everyone got up in the morning and left for their jobs. Now the cars don't leave, yet they are all certainly eating very well.

a reply to: TrulyColorBlind

It's real depending on what side of the fence you are on. so to speak.

If you are a business owner in an undesirable sector, then to you it may seem as though there is a shortage of workers, but if you are a job seeker and are looking for something to support yourself and also give opportunity for advancement then you will look at that same job differently.

So to the business owner there is a worker shortage and to the job seeker there is a job shortage.