China will invade Taiwan about 2024 to 2025.

originally posted by: TzarChasm
Remind me why Taiwan is so invaluable as to wager the fate of the world?

The fate of the world isnt worth a damn, if we arent all prepared to stand up for the independence of a tiny and 'insignificant' nation and its freedom. I thought that was something most humans would agree was an important statement to make and stand behind?

Or is it justified to let the large and powerful simply gobble up the weaker as they please... I thought that sort of thinking was dying out and as a species we'd begun to get a little more enlightened?

Clearly alot arent, but maybe the fate of the world is worth it if it finally rids it of establishments with the ruZZian and Chinese mindsets.

this is like the USA invading Canada its not going to happen as china first needs to control the world then like canada becoming the plaything of the USA over time Taiwan will become the plaything of china..

all china has to do is wait..

a reply to: Irishhaf

China much like russia is on the cusp of a critical population failure, soon they will not have the bodies to enact their desires.

Because of China "one child" policy , many female babies were aborted or killed shortly after birth

China now has a population ratio of 92 female to 100 males

This means many men can not find female companionship or marriage partners leading to lot on Incel with resulting
conditions for social chaos where p'o males take out their frustrations on rest of society

a reply to: BigfootNZ

There are two scenario of how China carries out its invasion of Taiwan

1) Military - think of this as 21 cent Pearl Harbor, where China attacks US bases on Guam, Wake island and even Hawaii and US Carrier Battle groups and ships with massive missile barrages
This is a reprise of how WWII in Pacific kicked off where Japan attacked US bases on Guam, Wake. Philippines and
most famously Pearl Harbor Idea would be to destroy or neutralize US assets in area to allow China a free hand to launch its invasion fleet against Taiwan unmolested

2) Political - China launches its invasion of Taiwan, but does not attack US bases and assets in area US has ambiguous arrangement with Taiwan It does not have a treaty obligating US to defend Taiwan, It does not have treaties with other allies in the area compelling them to assist US in case we go to Taiwan aid

Some historians have said this what Japan should have done , attack British colonies, Hong Kong, Malaya, Burma and the Dutch colonies on Java and Sumatra Leave US alone Would have made it difficult for Roosevelt to form a consensus declaring war against Japan Why spend US blood and money defending European Imperialism

originally posted by: machineintelligence
a reply to: DarthTrader

Based on the intelligence that I’ve gathered thus far this year China will barely make it through the winter. Their economy is in full collapse the Covid variant breaking out everywhere there right now is going to shut down travel to China and all exports from China will cease before the end of this winter in my opinion. They won’t be attacking anyone they’re barely gonna be able to scratch out their own existence. I recommend reading global guardian January report.

All very true but might be the reason they choose to do it. If the CCP thinks they are losing their grip on the mainland, what better thing than to accuse Tiawan/US/West of some crime or as the cause of China's woes, and unify everyone in an attack. Likely I don't know, but certainly possible.

I believe the weather/tidal conditions in the Tiawan Straits are most optimal for amphibious operations in March/April, so if they are going to do it that would be the time frame. And I think it will be this year not 24' or 25'. They don't want Tiawan to get amped up with Javelin's and Stingers like Ukraine has. I kind of expected them to do it last year and take advantage of the chaos started when Russia invaded Ukraine.

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: BigfootNZ

There are two scenario of how China carries out its invasion of Taiwan

1) Military - think of this as 21 cent Pearl Harbor, where China attacks US bases on Guam, Wake island and even Hawaii and US Carrier Battle groups and ships with massive missile barrages
This is a reprise of how WWII in Pacific kicked off where Japan attacked US bases on Guam, Wake. Philippines and
most famously Pearl Harbor Idea would be to destroy or neutralize US assets in area to allow China a free hand to launch its invasion fleet against Taiwan unmolested

2) Political - China launches its invasion of Taiwan, but does not attack US bases and assets in area US has ambiguous arrangement with Taiwan It does not have a treaty obligating US to defend Taiwan, It does not have treaties with other allies in the area compelling them to assist US in case we go to Taiwan aid

The first option would be self annihilation because such an attack would have little impact on the US ability to strike back while being highly likely to go nuclear fast (also there are probably subs already near Taiwan that could wipe out an invasion fleet in retaliation, making the attack futile in it's scope). Half the world going to war with China would probably be kind of bad for them.

And the second option would probably be a complete economic collapse for the Asia region with major impact around the world and set China back 50 years, for no particular gain other than a sense of pride and accomplishment taking back that "rebellious island".

Tough choices. But granted the second option is far more likely and that's why everyone is so nervous over Russia/Ukraine. If the world gets tired of it... it's just an open invitation for China to annex Taiwan.

Highly doubt it. Time is on China's side. By 2050, America's demographics will be so bad America will be like Mexico, Brazil. Crime on the streets everywhere. White people will be 30% of the population.

originally posted by: taitechnocrat
Highly doubt it. Time is on China's side. By 2050, America's demographics will be so bad America will be like Mexico, Brazil. Crime on the streets everywhere. White people will be 30% of the population.

👆☝
avg life span of an empire 250 yrs, america is 246 yrs old.

a reply to: Lysergic

America is still a republic (just) though if it is repeating Rome this could be the point it evolves into an empire and then promptly tear the west apart.

I tend to see it through the lens of blocks, like the soviet block its near the far end of the century a block lasts.. so we're looking at a fall not as an empire but in the same way as the soviets did.

originally posted by: TzarChasm
Remind me why Taiwan is so invaluable as to wager the fate of the world?

Appeasers of the World, unite!

Taiwan is a democracy of 24 million people, with some key strategic industries.

a reply to: TzarChasm
This reminds me of what Neville Chamberlain said about Czechoslovakia in 1938; "a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing". The outcome was 1939.

a reply to: SrWingCommander

Most people are not aware of this fact but Taiwan has developed a hypersonic missile technology and they will deploy it against Beijing if they are attacked. My understanding of the agreed-upon tactic is they will fire hypersonic’s just a couple at all of the major dams in mainland China destroying them simultaneously. That will be the response of Taiwan of China attacks.

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: BigfootNZ

There are two scenario of how China carries out its invasion of Taiwan

1) Military - think of this as 21 cent Pearl Harbor, where China attacks US bases on Guam, Wake island and even Hawaii and US Carrier Battle groups and ships with massive missile barrages
This is a reprise of how WWII in Pacific kicked off where Japan attacked US bases on Guam, Wake. Philippines and
most famously Pearl Harbor Idea would be to destroy or neutralize US assets in area to allow China a free hand to launch its invasion fleet against Taiwan unmolested

2) Political - China launches its invasion of Taiwan, but does not attack US bases and assets in area US has ambiguous arrangement with Taiwan It does not have a treaty obligating US to defend Taiwan, It does not have treaties with other allies in the area compelling them to assist US in case we go to Taiwan aid

Some historians have said this what Japan should have done , attack British colonies, Hong Kong, Malaya, Burma and the Dutch colonies on Java and Sumatra Leave US alone Would have made it difficult for Roosevelt to form a consensus declaring war against Japan Why spend US blood and money defending European Imperialism

I disagree with what was said about what Japan should have done.

The British left Japan no choice when they capped the Dutch South East Asian oil wells with cement. It took Japan 2 years to redrill those collapsed wells. Japan didn't have time to conduct its war in China without oil, it needed to strike while it was at its Zenith and not wait for a slow death in China.

If it couldn't take out both western powers in the Pacific to secure the former Dutch oil fields, which it never could quite secure well enough, then Japan would have been defeated by China alone.

originally posted by: machineintelligence
a reply to: SrWingCommander

Most people are not aware of this fact but Taiwan has developed a hypersonic missile technology and they will deploy it against Beijing if they are attacked. My understanding of the agreed-upon tactic is they will fire hypersonic’s just a couple at all of the major dams in mainland China destroying them simultaneously. That will be the response of Taiwan of China attacks.

The hypersonics would likely do next to NO damage against a dam of any reasonable size.

Dams are not some "paper doll house". They are some of the hardest structures to destroy, it is likely even nuclear blasts won't effectively destroy dams such as Hoover Dam.

It takes at least 1 ~250kt nuke direct hit to destroy just 3 meters of concrete.

A Dam is 30+meters concrete at the top and thicker at the bottom.

The yangtze river dam is 40 meters thick at the top "crest".

This means it would take several direct hits from a Nuclear bomb to dig out the top of the Yangtze River Dam. It doesn't help that Dams are basically the shape of a shield to just direct any blast away from the structure and bunker busting penetrators will just crumple under the type of poured concrete which is the densest in the world of construction. Bunker busters are expected to hit a bunker that is loose earth-covered bunker with maybe 1 meter or less ordinary concrete. They aren't designed to penetrate 30 meters of the densest concretes known to man that are perfectly smoothed and deflectionary.

A hypersonic missile would splat against a Dam like a gnat on a windshield.

We have a ton of expertise in this during the Dam Busting campaign in North Korea.

a reply to: DarthTrader

Hypersonic missiles will hit those dams at about 10 times the speed of sound and they will deliver a kinetic energy force of 100 kg in space of 1 inch at the speed of 10 times the speed of sound. The force of this strike will create a 90 m long cavity 10 m in diameter. Nothing will exist within that space it will be pushed away.A hypersonic missile hits with so much kinetic energy strike force that it is not the same as a nuclear strike it’s more like a directed energy strike.

a reply to: Irishhaf

You hit the nail on the head and something a lot of people aren't thinking about.

However, it's two fold, where will we push those factories to? India? Africa?

originally posted by: machineintelligence
a reply to: DarthTrader

Hypersonic missiles will hit those dams at about 10 times the speed of sound and they will deliver a kinetic energy force of 100 kg in space of 1 inch at the speed of 10 times the speed of sound. The force of this strike will create a 90 m long cavity 10 m in diameter. Nothing will exist within that space it will be pushed away.A hypersonic missile hits with so much kinetic energy strike force that it is not the same as a nuclear strike it’s more like a directed energy strike.

A nuclear bomb has so much more force than a hypersonic. Just research the Dam buster campaign in North Korea if you want to really drill down on how difficult it is to break a Dam. There's a very specific reason that what you're saying is completely untrue about hypersonics.

A sandbag will absorb and disperse all the kinetic energy of a .50 caliber. A single sandbag will stop the penetrating power of a .50 cal.

An arrow will pass easily through a sandbag.

The reason - to simplify it - is a relationship to mass versus overall inertia.

An arrow has a very high mass relative to its inertia, and a bullet has a very low mass relative to inertia.

Materials like concrete and sand are quite good at absorbing excess inertia. The more something has the more is absorbed and ultimately the relatively low mass item is obliterated on impact.

I've seen zero evidence a hypersonic would penetrate 90meters into concrete, maybe it would into steel but steel has a very low ability to disperse inertia because of its high tensile strength.

A hypersonic would just thud and obliterate against a densely poured concrete structure similar to a .50cal.

It takes A LOT of .50 cal bullets to reduce a concrete bunker, but will punch right through steel with ease.

A hypersonic might go straight down a carrier and punch from deck to hull, but won't have the same impact on concrete.

a reply to: machineintelligence

A hypersonic may also be a wrong weapon against a Dam for other reasons:
en.wikipedia.org...

The best way to breach a Dam is the same principle of torpedoes and depth charges to create a bubble jet.

A bubble jet is a great example of huge mass versus inertia ratio. A lot of water and a lot of inertia, a lot of the inertia is in the mass.

The bubble jet cuts through steel, earth, concrete, it'll cut through almost anything especially if it implodes on itself.

Even then these are very difficult to pull off, especially against a Dam, and even then as exampled above the damage is minimal anyway and was almost always not worth the effort.

a reply to: DarthTrader

That is why the Brits used a bouncing bomb or mine against the Ruhr dams in 1943 The bomb was spun at a high speed to give it a back spin (spin against the direction of travel) When it struck the dam the bomb literally crawled down the face of the dam do to the backspin , As it sank a hydrostatic fuse, like that of a depth charge, triggered the bomb. The water pressure acted to tamp the explosion directing the force into the dam causing it to breech

a reply to: Arnie123

Honestly lotta folks ive listened to/read think Mexico will become closer to us in much the way many predicted china was going to.

Demographically they have a robust population, close to us, cheap labor force, but in some ways way more skilled than china, india, or africa.

The only real problem is the cartels, and at some point they will either get in line or get wrecked.