How weird are Holiday Sales in your Area?

I saw reports that said Black Friday Broke Records.

I don’t believe it one iota.

I was also out today around rush hour. The stores were DEAD. When I say dead, I mean DEAD.
Went to Clothing store, I was the only shopper in the entire womens sections which is about 1/3 of the store.
I went to Crafts store, parking lot looked OK but very few people were in the store. Whizzed through there with not a single person in line in front of me which is unheard of. Went to the grocery store, I felt like I was being followed by “undercover” security. Got a few things and wizzed out of there too. Again this is 5-6pm in the prime of holiday season. Finally went to Chick-fil-A, ZERO cars waiting. In normal times there is always a line, actually a long long line in the drive through.

There is no record breaking going on, at least around here. It also makes me thing after the New Year the sobering reality is going to smack some people upside down. I’ve shopped during the holiday for a long time and this is by far the most bizarre season I’ve ever witnessed.

I know a lot of people are now buying a lot of things online. Welp, I noticed some big differences this year with that too.
Amazon is relying on UPS a lot more. The 2 day shipping is a long lost memory (at least in my parts) Some things are taking well over a week.
I noticed that people are complaining big time about delivery drivers and how they are getting bottom of the barrel workers that are probably legally illiterate or at the very least dyslexic with numbers!

I know most of the people on ATS know what’s coming. I am not a Debbie downer, but friends, it doesn’t look good at all.

I was in my local Wally world to get some sleeping aides yesterday

and I was the only one that i could see and Wal-mart is huge.

The news just manufactures headlines based on whatever narrative the deep state wants to be heard.

originally posted by: v1rtu0s0
The news just manufactures headlines based on whatever narrative the deep state wants to be heard.

I think so, there is no way anyone can believe this year is record breaking unless it’s record breaking lows!

a reply to: JAGStorm

Target was packed today around 3PM.

Factory outlet stores virtually empty around same time.

originally posted by: Mantiss2021
a reply to: JAGStorm

Target was packed today around 3PM.

Factory outlet stores virtually empty around same time.

Ok, yes last time I was in Target it was packed.. That is the only place I can actually say that for.
Our Target is on the smaller side, but I think they get all the disgruntled walmart customers.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Well, I know my friends will be getting hand made Christmas cards this year, I don’t expect anything, and I really hope I don’t get anything either, this years holiday period feels “different” for me.

Target, TJ Maxx and Home Goods were crowded today around one near me. What you may be seeing also is people who remote work have the ability to block an hour or two and shop during what used to be off hours like myself. I don't have to go shopping in the dark at 5 or 6 anymore after work.

Traffic at the malls seems way off, Walmart and Target are busy but still not crazy busy. We have been trending down as a family for a few years, most Christmas shopping is done online, and we don't buy for adults anymore, just the kids

originally posted by: putnam6
Traffic at the malls seems way off, Walmart and Target are busy but still not crazy busy. We have been trending down as a family for a few years, most Christmas shopping is done online, and we don't buy for adults anymore, just the kids

www.cnn.com...

American consumers got holiday shopping off to a strong start

New York
CNN Business
—
Americans dished out for toys, televisions and clothing on Black Friday and into the holiday weekend, despite decades-high inflation and a potential recession looming in 2023.

The National Retail Federation, a trade group for the retail industry, said a record 196 million Americans shopped in stores and online over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 10% increase from last year.

I just don’t believe this. I think people actually spent more during Covid. Am I thinking correctly?

a reply to: JAGStorm

I seriously question the 'official' headcount on the number of shoppers. The news on Black Friday said despite 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck retail profits beat those of 2019.

That doesn't surprise me one bit; merchandise has skyrocketed so companies didn't have to take a loss on their profit margin.
40% of the people were able to shop, giving corporations their greatest year yet. There are also some in the 60% who apparently haven't maxed out all their credit cards yet.

I'm expecting to see a huge untick in bankruptcies when if their tax returns get delayed or aren't as hefty as they expect.

I don't know about the rest of the country, but on the west coast homelessness is an epic problem, growing larger every day.

I read an editorial last week wondering why all the defunct malls aren't being turned into housing for the homeless. If we can support a war we should be able to address homelessness a little better.

Sorry for going off on a tangent, Jag.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I believe you are. I've worked for Amazon 3 holiday seasons now. 2020 I was just driving for extra money. We were doing 200+ stops a day with 300+ packages. It wasn't uncommon to see people having to do their first 30+ stops from the driver's seat because the back of the van was crammed full. Shifts go until you're done or your 10 hours of legal drive time run out (which is a rarity, usually if it takes you that long you're an ass dragger and someone who actually tries is sent to do some of your job for you).

2021 was about the same. Slightly less but not by much. There were also so many more routes that the 3 DSPs in my hub each got 2 waves extra (7am start time with waves of 15 going out every 15 minutes instead of 9:15 start time with waves every 20-25).

This year is... Different. Vans are packed beyond full (mostly because of 7-10 enormous boxes along with 15-20 totes full of smaller boxes and bags plus anything else that's too large/heavy to go in a tote) but instead of a minimum of 180 stops the average is more like 120.

The problem is that there's something going on with the way the AI does the routing. I have people quitting almost daily because they keep promising to fix it but it just gets worse. Routes that should take maybe 6 hours are taking 9-9.5 even if help is sent. Some rural routes will have them drive 12-20 minutes from one stop to the next, then 5 minutes past that one, then back to one a half mile down the road from the first. Routes will start in mountain towns, circle through a city or two then end 3 counties later literally across the street from the first stop of the day. Amazon doesn't care and basically expects stops to take 3 minutes max from start of one to start of the next.

Hell, I used to do an EXTREMELY rural route at the first DSP I worked for that was roughly 125 stops a day. It took me 6 hours after a few weeks once I learned where the GPS made mistakes and shortcuts could be taken. I now rarely drive but the other day -due to being woefully understaffed and also having at least 3 vans a week poop the bed- had to drive a route of 85 stops/125 packages that took me 9.5 hours because of routing.

Either way, I'm trying to make 2 points simultaneously. The first would be yes, I think you are correct and after seeing the size of routes and number of packages following cyber Monday I also called BS on their claims of record breaking sales.

The second is that honestly, at this point, Amazon really is taking anyone willing to put up with the work. I think my drivers start at 19.25 or something around there currently. For the cost of living here, that's nothing. Especially when you spend your day delivering things that could have been bought locally to ungrateful and often flat out insulting jerks, peeing in bottles to avoid having to stop for a bathroom because that'll put you behind almost without a doubt, having an inward facing camera watching your every movement and sending videos to management of anything it seems unsafe (on that 85 stop route mine yelled at me and reported me to... Well myself, essentially) and reporting you if it sees your eyes go down too frequently to check the speed limit on the GPS when you're in areas you don't know because both the camera and gps app keep records of your driving and if it goes to low it hits your pay. Checking your mirrors too much before a lane change or turn? That's a hit. Take a drink of water while driving? That's a hit. The outward facing camera... Someone cuts you off and you're too close to them? Hit. Hit the brakes too hard after being cut off? Double hit. Swerve to miss a person/road debris/whatever? Hit. Windy day blowing your 10' tall box on wheels around? Hit. So really, considering there's a finite number of people with clean driving records that will do that work for that pay and how many people get fed up with the "safety" rules that end up making you a hazard to other drivers and leaving, you're probably going to run out of decent drivers in a couple of years.

The other day a friend of mine that's still just driving and does occasional training had a trainee that delivered to the wrong house a few dozen times, defecated in her pants halfway through the day, then told my friend about how she was fired from her last job a few weeks ago for crashing a van. So yeah, that's the quality of people we're getting now with only maybe 2 out of 5 drivers being good at what they do and actually caring. Also the reasons I plan on leaving after my shift on new year's eve.

Sorry for rambling.

We were out the afternoon of the Saturday after Thanksgiving to go to Meijers and Walmart and the stores were pretty sparse of customers. We did not even have to wait long in line to check out in the lanes with cashiers.

Usually Black Friday sales and also the Saturday are busy. We also went to the Hong Kong Buffet and it did not have hardly any customers....we rode by and got a parking place right in front and there were lots of places in their parking lot.

I never would have expected it to be that quiet in Marquette. We went to Menards and I bought a power washer, it was normally two hundred nineteen and was on sale for one hundred nineteen. I asked the attendant in the area how the Black Friday was and he said it was not much different than a normal weekend day. There were plenty of the good priced black Friday deals left and I asked the guy why there were still these things left and he said that they did not sell much of anything there, he mentioned that maybe people bought online or something because some of those prices were great and he said normally a lot of those things would be sold out. Everything we looked at was in stock...weird for the Saturday after Black Friday.

Walmart was fully stocked and so was Meijers. I have never seen this since I was shopping, usually all the good sale stuff is sold out by Friday Afternoon.

I cannot see that it was a booming sale around here, but maybe it was online...which does not help the stores and employees here to stay viable or pay workers wages.

a reply to: Magnivea

Thank you for that insight, I found it super interesting!

a reply to: Magnivea


From my personal experience, yes Amazon does have something very strange going on with their routing. I ordered packages a few hours apart - they were delivered by different drivers a few hours apart.

Anyway, online sales increased 2.3% which is way less than the inflation rate. So adjusted for inflation, sales really went down. I didn't see any reports on in-store retail sales but for sure they were down. The stores were empty on Black Friday.

But I went to book a short-term around Christmas - absolutely sold out everywhere! Same thing with in-person shows and events - completely packed.

a reply to: JAGStorm


I know a delivery driver in my town who delivers for Dominoes, yucky I know, but the business is next to my store and is usually busy non-stop. He told me a few weeks ago, business has all but stopped. He would make on average 600.00 a weekend in tips delivering. Now he is getting zero. He has a new truck payment that he may not be able to make soon and is now considering moving South.

I haven’t been in any store other than grocery in over 6 months and I despise Amazon since someone hacked my bank account last November and the idiots let them order over $300.00 without verifying name or purchases. I had never ordered thru Amazon and now Never will.

My mechanic is busy though. He currently is fixing my brakes, Christmas this year will be about safe brakes!


My Fiscal Prediction for 2023: Major crash

a reply to: JAGStorm

Stores were packed here in NTX.

Even if there is less in-person shopping going about, stop trying to sensationalize everything.
You people will grasp at any largely visibly change and blindly throw garbage conspiracy theories/concerns.
Is your life really that boring and meaningless that you have to try and fabricate something
fantastic to escape your mundane existence?

a reply to: Overd0sed


Did you consider that different areas may be experiencing differing economies at all.

It’s bad here in Boston. I work in a drug store. I hear stories all day long about the struggles people are going through!


Also, people have to shop at 4-5 different grocery stores to maximize their savings to barely eat. How is that affecting the green new deal. They are driving around more to try and save on food costs.

I now have customers telling us they have nothing for Christmas for their kids this year due to heating costs as well. A girl I work with has already started buying for some customers kids. We’ve all done it.

So glad things are good in NTX. Please have some sympathy for those struggling to put food on the table.

a reply to: JAGStorm

While I agree with a lot of what you said... Online shopping is a thing now. EVERYONE that I personally know who "shopped" during black friday did it from their living rooms.

originally posted by: Overd0sed

Stores were packed here in NTX.


Even if there is less in-person shopping going about, stop trying to sensationalize everything.
You people will grasp at any largely visibly change and blindly throw garbage conspiracy theories/concerns.
Is your life really that boring and meaningless that you have to try and fabricate something
fantastic to escape your mundane existence?

So in JAGStorm defense...

Here is the headlines...

RETAIL
Black Friday online sales to hit new record, expected to top $9 billion
Online sales for Black Friday are expected to top $9 billion, a record for the industry, Adobe said.

But then a quick check shows that in the last few years online sales for Black Friday has been 14+ billion and it takes like going back 5 years to drop below 9 billion, so what gives?

The BIG savings just wasn't offered this year, and I would say there are more people worried about making ends meet then their next TV.