Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report

A superficial take of today's jobs report would note that both jobs and earnings "blew past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes", and while that is accurate at the headline level, it couldn't be further from the truth if one actually digs a little deeper in today's jobs numbers.

Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report

Given that the interpretation of the Payroll Report is used politically to attribute some great achievement to a political player's immeasurable wisdom... I take special pleasure in pointing out that these reports seldom are as they are characterized by the media mouthpieces whose products are sold to the highest political bidder. (I realize without bias that the same can be said of the source article authors work - or any "published" material, for that matter, nowadays.)

It calls to memory the dreaded "climate data hook" used to serve a linchpin for the climate crisis propaganda - and how the report they used factually didn't say what they (media particularly) said it did... But hey, that is another thread entirely.

Consider the following: the closely followed Establishment survey came in above expectations at 263K, above the 200K expected - a record 7th consecutive beat vs expectations - and down modestly from last month's upward revised 284K...

.. numbers which confirm that at a time when virtually every major tech company is announcing mass layoffs...

I don't know about you folks, but I have people telling me that "help wanted" signs are everywhere, and people are choosing not to re-enter the workforce.

It would appear that the author is reporting a distinct disconnect between what information is propagated by politically-fed media and the reality of the actual numbers...

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics is responsible for the report.. the summary and conclusions disseminated are ... wrong.

The author writes:

the BLS has a single, laser-focused political agenda - not to spoil the political climate at a time when Democrats just lost control of the House as somehow both construction (+20K) and manufacturing (+14K) added jobs according to the BLS, when even ADP now reports that these two sectors combined shed more than 100,000 workers in November.

That merits "drilling down" into the data to understand the disconnect. BLS doesn't do that (although that is their presumptive purpose) ... so we must. (Rember: BLS is led by politically appointed employees who are beholden to their political masters.)

... there is only so much the Department of Labor can hide under the rug because when looking at the abovementioned gap between the Household and Establishment surveys which we have been pounding the table on since the summer, it just blew out by a whopping 401K as a result of the 263K increase in the number of nonfarm payrolls (tracked by the Household survey) offset by a perplexing plunge in the number of people actually employed which tumbled by 138K (tracked by Household survey).

So it appears the "report" is actually a piece of propaganda? Wait...

What is even more perplexing, is that despite the continued rise in nonfarm payrolls, the Household survey continues to telegraph growing weakness, and as of Nov 30, the gap that opened in March has since grown to a whopping 2.7 million "workers" which may or may not exist anywhere besides the spreadsheet model of some BLS (or is that BLM) political activist...

Showing this another way, there were 158.458 million employed workers in March 2022 ... and 158.470 million in November 2022 an increase of just 12,000 over 8 months, a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.7 million!

So the next time you hear: "The job numbers report came out and we're seeing...[whatever]"
Don't just accept that what they say it is "real" ... just accept that whatever they say is "what they are reporting."

There are numerous ways to lie... misrepresented statistics, half-assed opinion, disingenuous analysis of data made to "fit" their model, and even direct bold-faced lies. Whether they are saying what they are 'compelled' to say or 'choose' to say is irrelevant... it is still a lie.

a reply to: Maxmars

US Federal economic numbers used to be relatively reliable.

Ever since Obama was installed, however, the US has sunk to matching Thirld World levels of corruption and disrepute, down to using state police apparatus against political opponents like any African dictatorship does, something NO ONE would have thought remotely possible before the arrival of Barack

Whenever I hear anything about jobs or production from the government, all I can ever think of are those scenes from 1984 where the TV’s are announcing fictitious production numbers that sound wonderful while real working people drink coffee made from sawdust and god-knows-what.

Looks like it's possible they are rigging the "Reports" to create "Reasons (aka excuses)" to keep raising interest rates.

Note Janet Yellen's insane remarks about the cause of inflation she made the other day. All part of the devastation plans.

Have fun with next year's real estate collapse 😎

Its best to rate the employment opportunities of gain by just walking the streets of ANY downtown area these days and get the impression that its a wonderful time to look for a job. Moral of the story is... people are too doped up these days to even look for work. Too really find out how the unemployment situation is, one must go back 3 years and see how many applied for SSDI and are now getting about 860 dollars a month and sitting around smoking dope all day. By the way , one get paid from the start of application so if they applied like 2 or 3 years ago and now got that fat check of about $2500 to over $3000 , I don't think they are too excited to go fishing for a job.

Where I live the unemployment rate is so low that virtually every business has a help wanted sign out front. Companies for the past year have been raising the pay to try and keep and also to hire new employees.

a reply to: Maxmars

Some financial analysts are sounding the alarm and saying that it is an artificial bubble. I just can’t believe anything good is happening as long as we have Biden, and whoever is behind him at the helm. I am just waiting for when it will all come crashing down.

a reply to: StarsInDust

Frankly, all bubbles are - in the final analysis - artificial.

But the warning spirit is not lost on me.

The people who manufacture crises are very well-positioned and take advantage of it regularly.

I wish I could completely endorse your last comment, but to identify the culprits by party is also an artificial construct.

Respectfully, this transcends politics, and goes straight to the level of predatory and exploitative economic wrangling, we generally call it - "corruption." The closer you are to the beneficiaries of the lies, the more responsible you are. Party affiliation is a theatrical trapping - part of the theater we need to get beyond.

Dude. Living on $800 a month sounds like hell. I’d be pretty keen to get out of that situation.

a reply to: musicismagic

originally posted by: StarsInDust
a reply to: Maxmars

Some financial analysts are sounding the alarm and saying that it is an artificial bubble. I just can’t believe anything good is happening as long as we have Biden, and whoever is behind him at the helm. I am just waiting for when it will all come crashing down.

Now that rat pelosi has jumped ship you won’t have to wait very long I reckon.

a reply to: Maxmars

I don't understand most of what that says, for some reason I can't understand the wording.

Does it say that there are 158.470 million workers in November against 158.458 workers in March and that there was an increase of 2.7 million of reported payrolls?

Could that mean that more people have more than one job? 1 worker - 2 payrolls?

originally posted by: xuenchen
Looks like it's possible they are rigging the "Reports" to create "Reasons (aka excuses)" to keep raising interest rates.

Note Janet Yellen's insane remarks about the cause of inflation she made the other day. All part of the devastation plans.

Have fun with next year's real estate collapse 😎

Could not have said it better. Stepping back to take in the big picture we see raising interest rates will lead to reduced business activity and greater collapse of small business. Thei objective is to achieve the WEF goal of zero growth economy.

It's fascinating to watch in a macabre sort of way.

a reply to: Maxmars
Good layout and presentation of some facts!

IMO, I believe the major factor in most people not entering back into the workforce could be that their level of consciousness is slowly raising and they are waking up to the fact the whole thing is rigged. The working wage will not match the living wage unless you are in a sales position or with a very well grounded company that is in an entry level paying position(of which most got eliminated during Rona).

I have been blessed to never have to stop working throughout this mess but I feel for the all the people who were displaced in the workforce due to this phenomenon.

I feel even more for the rest of us as we all watch everything unravel from the sidelines and with each domino drop our lives changing forever more.

originally posted by: ArMaP
a reply to: Maxmars

I don't understand most of what that says, for some reason I can't understand the wording.
Does it say that there are 158.470 million workers in November against 158.458 workers in March and that there was an increase of 2.7 million of reported payrolls?
Could that mean that more people have more than one job? 1 worker - 2 payrolls?

I had the same difficulty. I'm not exactly satisfied with the sources production. Unfortunately, I could find no other work which explores this occurrence of "Let us tell you that this report vindicated us and our policies - but please don't actually read it." (a la climate change report of long ago.)

I suspect the disconnect is in which data sources they simply 'ignored' or 'reinterpreted.'

Ultimately the wrinkle here is that the BLS seems to be very lax about what data it uses, as long as it conforms to what they want to report. As I pointed out this is done almost increasingly as a standard practice whenever a political-appointee led organization is called for meaningful contributions to the public record.

As you might know already, data can be abused...

So what's going on here?

The simple answer: as shocking as this may sound, there has been no change in the number of people actually employed in the past 8 months, but due to deterioration in the economy, more people are losing their higher-paying, full-time jobs, and switching into much lower- paying, benefits-free part-time jobs, which also forces many to work more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey. Meanwhile the Establishment survey plows on ahead with its politically-motivated approximations, seasonal adjustments, and other labor market goalseeking meant to make the Biden admin look good and provide the Fed with ammo to keep rates high (thus forcing even more real layoffs, which unfortunately the BLS is incapable of capturing due to political reasons).

And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the Biden admin needs something to hang its hat on after the GOP recaptured the House) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.

As an aside, here we admit we were wrong: back in August we said that "we expect that "realization" to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation." Little did we know just how stubborn and intent the White House is to stick to the broken narrative that all is well in the US.

Or, putting it otherwise as BofA's Michael Hartnett did earlier ... "unemployment in ’23 will be as shocking to Main St consumer sentiment as inflation in ’22."

Perhaps I am too sensitive to this kind of "backed-in" data analysis practice - I have had to deal with it professionally enough times in the past to be soured on any excuses levied to justify taking "provided statistics" at face value while ignoring the actual data - especially from sources who have historically excelled at massaging reports to fit their agenda.

originally posted by: Maxmars
Ultimately the wrinkle here is that the BLS seems to be very lax about what data it uses, as long as it conforms to what they want to report. As I pointed out this is done almost increasingly as a standard practice whenever a political-appointee led organization is called for meaningful contributions to the public record.

That's one thing I never liked about the US, too many positions that should be independent are related to political-appointed people.

Does anyone besides me research the author of an article?

Or do you just go: "I like what that says" -- "It supports the conspiracy".

Tyler Durden is a character from Fight Club.

Zero Hedge (Right Wing Conservative) uses the pseudonym -- so authors of their articles can remain anonymous.

The news portion of Zero Hedge is written by a group of editors who collectively write under the pseudonym "Tyler Durden, or Robert Meyers", a character from the novel and film Fight Club.

The founder of Zero Hedge is: Daniel Ivandjiiski (Bulgarian: Даниел Иванджийски, born 8 November 1978) is a Bulgarian-born, U.S.-based former investment banker and capital-markets trader, and currently financial blogger, who founded the website Zero Hedge in January 2009, and remains its publisher and main editor.

en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: Annee

You're concerned about a source, which includes outside gov't supplied sources btw, then go on to use wiki?

C'mon Annee!

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: Annee

You're concerned about a source, which includes outside gov't supplied sources btw, then go on to use wiki?

C'mon Annee!

You don't check out your sources?

You just accept what an article says -- because you want to?

I did not comment whether Right or Wrong. But I take issue with the secrecy of who writes what.

On 29 April 2016, an ex-employee of Zero Hedge, Colin Lokey, who had joined a year earlier in 2015 from Seeking Alpha, gave an interview to Bloomberg, revealing Ivandjiiski, and San Francisco-based credit trader Tim Backshall, as the main force behind Zero Hedge. The article confirmed various details about Daniel Ivandjiiski, including that he lives in a mansion in Mahwah, New Jersey, Lokey saying: "These two guys, who live a lifestyle you only dream of, are pretending to speak for you." en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: Annee

I did not comment whether Right or Wrong. But I take issue with the secrecy of who writes what.

I do as well, provably for the past 8 months regarding certain posters in certain nations.

You don't check out your sources?

You just accept what an article says -- because you want to?

Ah, but I do.

Thus noting how you are quoting an amalgymation of sourcing via wiki. Do you check your wiki sources?

a reply to: JinMI

And I'll take Wiki over Breitbart and most other Right-Wing sites any day.

They're ridiculous. Like reading a soap opera.