The Repackaged Illness

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

I don't understand how you can make that assertion without verifiable data? You say that data is wrong, but then make a proclamation based on something, I can only assume is that same data. Or do you have better numbers?

I said the data used in the OP is wrong as its comparing two different things.

We know that the actual lab results declined massively so I am not disputing that there where less flu cases*

* unless someone can show a plausible reason why less positive results. In which case it still doesn't support the claim of this thread.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

I really have to hear it from him, so he doesn't weasel out of it later.

Weasel out of what?

I have explicity said there is a massive reduction on flu cases. The figures in the OP however are misleading as they compare estimated cases with laboratory confirmed cases.

You shouldn't try to divert by the way.
I did the maths for all of us here.

39.67 estimated million infections the three years before 2020/21 and 485,000 infections the year 2020/21. (1,657 confirmed cases)

The CDC has failed to do the estimations for 2020/2021.

Still the percentage decrease is 98.725% which nobody can accept as there is no evidence for it or for the reasons given such as cheap masks and flu shots that are notoriously ineffective.

You perhaps have to argue with Mr Zombies who doesn't believe the data either as he thinks flu wasn't reported. You think there is a reduction by that much. So you are in direct contradiction to each other.

So you agree the figures in the OP is misleading as it massively overstated the decrease.

I am agreeing there is a massive decrease so not sure why you are still arguing that point.

The decrease is in lab results so I don't think under reporting is the main issue.

The rest of your argument seems to be based on incredulity rather than actual facts.

I haven't said anything about the OP yet.
However the numbers showing a massive percentage decrease in the number of flu cases.

It's the CDC which failed to make estimations for the 2020/21 and only reported the confirmed cases of 1,657 One can only make sense of what they let out. It's their problem.

I had to do the estimations earlier and it gave around 485,000 infections down from 39.67 millions in the three years before (on average).

That cannot be explained by cheap masks and flu shots and the CDC made no effort to quantify this but was speculating without any evidence.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

I don't understand how you can make that assertion without verifiable data? You say that data is wrong, but then make a proclamation based on something, I can only assume is that same data. Or do you have better numbers?

I said the data used in the OP is wrong as its comparing two different things.

We know that the actual lab results declined massively so I am not disputing that there where less flu cases*

* unless someone can show a plausible reason why less positive results. In which case it still doesn't support the claim of this thread.

We know what the results are now by both actual lab confirmed cases and the estimations by the CDC and mine.

So the percentage decrease is 98.725% which the CDC cannot explain and neither you.

By asserting that cheap masks and ineffective flu shots have a combined magical result you are entering the realm of conspiracy theories.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

I don't understand how you can make that assertion without verifiable data? You say that data is wrong, but then make a proclamation based on something, I can only assume is that same data. Or do you have better numbers?

I said the data used in the OP is wrong as its comparing two different things.

We know that the actual lab results declined massively so I am not disputing that there where less flu cases*

* unless someone can show a plausible reason why less positive results. In which case it still doesn't support the claim of this thread.

I'm not so interested in the claim of the thread, as I am to get verifiable numbers, What you don't seem to grasp is that if all this is true, we have the tools to remove the flu from our worries. And we can save millions of lives around the globe. set aside your ego for a second and think of the bigger picture.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

This is for 2020/21

www.cdc.gov...

Confirmed cases:1,657

The CDC failed here to provide estimated cases.
And I don't know whether they have done so elsewhere.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

Here is the table for symptomatic flu for the past 10 years

www.cdc.gov...

Note that the 2020/21 isn't available due to minimal influenza activity...

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

We need you to quantify this and mathematics not just philosophy and assertions.

Quantify what? It's a summary of my position based on data that does not seem to be disputed ( that flu cases decrease).

Use mathematics to show that the percentage decrease is so low because of each effective measure.

Such as

Cheap and potentially hazardous masks
Ineffective flu shots
Whatever else...

a reply to: Asmodeus3

Your opinion is it can't be explained.

Would you like to offer an alternative yet?

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

I don't understand how you can make that assertion without verifiable data? You say that data is wrong, but then make a proclamation based on something, I can only assume is that same data. Or do you have better numbers?

I said the data used in the OP is wrong as its comparing two different things.

We know that the actual lab results declined massively so I am not disputing that there where less flu cases*

* unless someone can show a plausible reason why less positive results. In which case it still doesn't support the claim of this thread.

I'm not so interested in the claim of the thread, as I am to get verifiable numbers, What you don't seem to grasp is that if all this is true, we have the tools to remove the flu from our worries. And we can save millions of lives around the globe. set aside your ego for a second and think of the bigger picture.

Well I think the topic of the thread is probably relevant while on this thread.

We could end road traffic deaths by setting the speed limit at 1mph and making people wear bubbles wrap when leaving the house.

All things have an opportunity cost.

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

We need you to quantify this and mathematics not just philosophy and assertions.

Quantify what? It's a summary of my position based on data that does not seem to be disputed ( that flu cases decrease).

Use mathematics to show that the percentage decrease is so low because of each effective measure.

Such as

Cheap and potentially hazardous masks
Ineffective flu shots
Whatever else...

Can you souce the flu shot was ineffective in 2020?

There were numerous measures in place to reduce the spread of the virus, they dont need to be that effective to prevent high number of flu cases.

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

This is for 2020/21

www.cdc.gov...

Confirmed cases:1,657

The CDC failed here to provide estimated cases.
And I don't know whether they have done so elsewhere.

did you notice the site format changed and the only year you can get the data displayed in that format is 2020-2021? I wanted to see the same format displaying the same data from year to year. Were you able to find the same data as we see in the 2020-21 season?

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

Here is the table for symptomatic flu for the past 10 years

www.cdc.gov...

Note that the 2020/21 isn't available due to minimal influenza activity...

they "estimated" 9 million cases, but we have their stated numbers at 1657. It almost looks like the folks who made the 2016 election poll results called the same audible here. (Hillary had a 99% chance of winning.)

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
a reply to: ScepticScot

just check the CDC numbers mate .

for the most part they corroborate the OP's chart.

The FLU numbers from 2019 to 2021 took a sharp drop off and the Covid-19 numbers picked up the slack .

Didn't deny flu numbers reduced drastically. It would have been more surprising if they didn't.

That doesn't change that the figures in the OP are highly misleading and that the covid is really flu theory is one of the most stupid of all the covid conspiracy theories.

The theory from some is that the Flu disappeared and that seems really strange knowing at the beginning, everything was covid even without a test. At this stage it's data gathering and trying to comprehend if what is reported is possible, or bullsh!t.

But I am curious as to why you feel flu numbers would have had to go down. Please explain that.

Reasons already given.

The whole range of measures to reduce the spread of covid would have an impact on the spread of other viruses as well.

That's not believable and especially when the reduction in cases is massive. In the year 2020/21 there were 1,657 confirmed cases. If you want to increase this number and make an estimate it will still be in their thousands. This is extremely low and the CDC describes it as 'unusually low'. That is down from an average of 39.67 million estimated cases in the last 3 years.

The percentage decrease in the summer of flu cases is over 99.99% and the cheap masks together with the social distancing cannot achieve such results unless someone is naive or stupid to believe such claims.

See post above.

While there is a dramatic decline you are comparing two different figures.

then you provide the data. Show us where this is wrong.

This has been covered. its 2 different metrics.

See even asmodeus post, he gets it.

There is some issue here as to who gets what. The CDC provided only the number of confirmed cases for 2020/21 and not the estimated ones. I had to do the math for the estimated ones but even in this case the percentage reduction is 98.725%

Network dude said 99% and he isn't that far away.

Now if you also claim that you are a mathematics expert of an expert in biology let us know. I don't think you have any expertise in either of these two subjects

He didnt say 99% in the post I replied to and I said nothing about what the % was. So apparently I can read at least...

Scott, you have proven to be a maths person. I'm actually trying to understand this, and will likely do a lengthy thread today. But if I'm going to present your side of this, I really need to know your side with regard to the data. So if you could please confirm or deny the data presented, and state your position based on the data.

The data shows that there is a large decrease in the number of flu cases. It's not as large as the OP suggests but still a major decrease.

This data is pretty consistent across different countries that applied similar measures.

There is a logical mechanism to explain how these case numbers would be reduced by these measures.

Other viruses have also had lower case numbers over the same period.

There may well be factors involved in the decrease as well.

None of that offers any evidence that flu has been relabelled as covid.

That is a summary of my position.

We need you to quantify this and mathematics not just philosophy and assertions.

Quantify what? It's a summary of my position based on data that does not seem to be disputed ( that flu cases decrease).

Use mathematics to show that the percentage decrease is so low because of each effective measure.

Such as

Cheap and potentially hazardous masks
Ineffective flu shots
Whatever else...

Can you souce the flu shot was ineffective in 2020?

There were numerous measures in place to reduce the spread of the virus, they dont need to be that effective to prevent high number of flu cases.

I have commented already on how ineffective the flu shots can be and they are known to be ineffective due to the rapid mutations of the virus.


www.science.org...

Why often vaccines so often fail

But it's a terribly inadequate vaccine for a serious public health threat. Now, researchers are striving to understand why it fails so often—and how to make a markedly better one.

You see the admission these vaccines are terribly inadequate and notoriously known for their low effectiveness.

So unless you have some good evidence to show that the flu vaccines were unusually effective in the year 2020/21...

And that wearing cheap masks can also reduce significantly the number of infections...

The combined effect of these ineffective measures seems to have magical properties according to you...

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

Here is the table for symptomatic flu for the past 10 years

www.cdc.gov...

Note that the 2020/21 isn't available due to minimal influenza activity...

they "estimated" 9 million cases, but we have their stated numbers at 1657. It almost looks like the folks who made the 2016 election poll results called the same audible here. (Hillary had a 99% chance of winning.)

9 million cases is for the year after i.e 2021/22

For the year we are interested 2020/21

Estimates are not available for the 2020-2021 flu season due to minimal influenza activity.

They are unable and unwilling to do so but I did it for them and comes out as 485,000 estimated infections.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
a reply to: Asmodeus3

Your opinion is it can't be explained.

Would you like to offer an alternative yet?

It's not an opinion. More of a conclusion from their own data as the CDC is also puzzled by the results.
But they are unable and/or unwilling to produce the estimated numbers for 2020/21.

It would have been much easier for the reader of they had the actual confirmed lab cases by year and the estimated number of cases by year. So we can make our comparisons.

So there are two problems here. They can't explain the significant reduction and they are unable to provide estimates for 2020/21 which is strange by their own standards. Epidemiology is based on estimates and statistics and not on confirmed cases.

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: Asmodeus3

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: Asmodeus3

can you show where exactly you got the numbers from please. It's not easy navigating the CDC's mess of a site.

Here is the table for symptomatic flu for the past 10 years

www.cdc.gov...

Note that the 2020/21 isn't available due to minimal influenza activity...

they "estimated" 9 million cases, but we have their stated numbers at 1657. It almost looks like the folks who made the 2016 election poll results called the same audible here. (Hillary had a 99% chance of winning.)

This is the year before 2019/20

The overall burden of influenza (flu) for the 2019-2020 was an estimated 36 million flu-related illnesses, 16 million flu-related medical visits, 390,000 flu-related hospitalizations, and 25,000 flu-related deaths

You seem the massive amount of estimated infections, 36 million, and hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations as long with an estimated 25,000 deaths.

There is nothing similar for the 2020/2021 period and this is not good science and epidemiology at all. It's also highly suspicious. The only thing they provide is 1,657 confirmed cases.

The problem isn't the data provided by the OP but the inability from the CDC to provide the actual confirmed cases for each year and the estimated ones each year. Of course the estimated ones will far exceed the confirmed lab cases which are not a good metric in this case. The estimated cases are the ones closer to the total cases and from that point you can derive the infection fatality rate for this strain of flu.

a reply to: ScepticScot

All things have an opportunity cost.

Opportunity cost is the loss of one opportunity because you choose another.

For example, if I buy a crate of AK the OC are the FAL that I would otherwise have spent the money on.

originally posted by: AaarghZombies
a reply to: ScepticScot

All things have an opportunity cost.

Opportunity cost is the loss of one opportunity because you choose another.

For example, if I buy a crate of AK the OC are the FAL that I would otherwise have spent the money on.

I am aware.

There is an opportunity cost in having measures in place to prevent the transmission of viruses. Its a question of at what point does a the benefit make it worth while.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

So there are two problems here. They can't explain the significant reduction and they are unable to provide estimates for 2020/21 which is strange by their own standards. Epidemiology is based on estimates and statistics and not on confirmed cases.

They have several possible explanations, but they can't confirm which on is correct.

From a statistical perspective, the truth is probably simply that people who got the flu stayed home, so their flu never made it into the data set.

No conspiracy, just people staying home.