Extraterrestrial Civilisations in our own Galaxy

www.seti.org...

Drake Equation

N = R* × f(p) × n(e) × f(l) × f(i) × f(c) × L

How many alien societies exist, and are detectable? This famous formula gives us an idea. The Drake Equation, which was the agenda for a meeting of experts held in West Virginia in 1961, estimates N, the number of transmitting societies in the Milky Way galaxy. The terms are defined as follows:

N : The number of civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable.

R* : The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life (number per year).

f(p) : The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.

n(e) : The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.

f(l) : The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.

f(i) : The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.

f(c) : The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that produces detectable signs of their existence.

L : The average length of time such civilizations produce such signs (years).

The Drake equation is a probabilistic attempt to give a flavour on the range of extraterrestrial civilisations in the Milky Way Galaxy. It is assumed that these civilisations are active and are able to send and receive messages.

The equation can be used throughout the Universe and for every Galaxy if we have the appropriate estimates for all the factors involved. Of course the most difficult task is to find good estimates for these factors.

Our own Galaxy, the Milky Way, is a barred spiral Galaxy that contains around 100-400 billion stars and at least as many planets. As a result a good fraction of these planets belong to the habitable zones of single stars or binary systems. The diameter of our galaxy is about 85,000 to 90,000 light years.

We know that there is at least one intelligent civilisation in out galaxy, us. The estimates vary as the parameters factors are not easy to estimate. However the high estimates are very important for discussing as they show millions of intelligent extraterrestrial civilisations only on our galaxy.

Considering that the Universe contains anything between 100 billion to 2,000 billion galaxies I am pretty sure that we are not alone in the Universe.
My view in this matter is that life is abundant in the Universe. Not just intelligent life but life in general.




exoplanets.nasa.gov...

If it is abundant as you believe what would you say regarding the Fermi paradox?



a reply to: Asmodeus3

a reply to: Asmodeus3

Considering that the Universe contains anything between 100 billion to 2,000 billion galaxies I am pretty sure that we are not alone in the Universe.

Yes. Billion of galaxies hosting civilizations that cannot reach to each other, not even talk to each other. I call that to be alone.

Accept it. Please.

a reply to: Asmodeus3

A very probable conclusion.

The Sun is a class G star; these are yellow, with surface temperatures of 5,000–6,000 K. It’s approximately 4.5 billion years old. So a relatively young star. In less than 2 million years we humans have progressed from apes to space travelers, imagine what we can do in another 2 million years? I have little doubt that intelligent, space travelers are out there. They are probably watching or even directing us as we speak.

What is science today was magic only 200 years ago.

a reply to: Nickn3
The fact that we live on a crystal blue ball floating in the middle of space, still sounds like a type of mystical magic. Add to that the fact that we walk up and down the side of this ball, glued on by something called gravity makes it seem like we live in something closer to the matrix.

What a strange, weird, reality we call home.

You'd think by now that we would have seen something that would give us an indication we are not alone wouldn't you.

Maybe we don't know how to look yet, maybe we are the first ones, maybe we are the last ones.


a reply to: Nickn3

originally posted by: nonspecific
You'd think by now that we would have seen something that would give us an indication we are not alone wouldn't you.

Maybe we don't know how to look yet, maybe we are the first ones, maybe we are the last ones.


a reply to: Nickn3

That's assuming we would recognize alien communication as communication.

A equation for something unknown with unknown equations.
We could be living inside of a computer simulator or inside a giant black hole.

The Drake Equation is a probabilistic attempt to shed some light on the question of whether we are alone or not in the Universe.

Even without the Drake Equation one can argue that there is a great chance life has developed elsewhere given the number of galaxies, 100billion to 2000 billion in the Universe, and an average of 100 billion stars per galaxy and at least as many planets.

Space pigs. Herds of them. Bigger than asteroids. Giant slabs of space bacon.

originally posted by: nonspecific
You'd think by now that we would have seen something that would give us an indication we are not alone wouldn't you.

Maybe we don't know how to look yet, maybe we are the first ones, maybe we are the last ones.


a reply to: Nickn3

Oh i dont know about that..

I mean, in the grand scheme of things, reality.. Our pictures and data are just silly playthings that only matter to us fleshbound.

originally posted by: ancientlight

originally posted by: nonspecific
You'd think by now that we would have seen something that would give us an indication we are not alone wouldn't you.

Maybe we don't know how to look yet, maybe we are the first ones, maybe we are the last ones.


a reply to: Nickn3

That's assuming we would recognize alien communication as communication.

One major issue when trying to communicate is radio waves and how powerful the signal is.

We are also assuming compatibility in our ways of communication with the given civilisation.

I think there is also modified versions of the Drake Equation.

originally posted by: nonspecific
If it is abundant as you believe what would you say regarding the Fermi paradox?



a reply to: Asmodeus3

I won't use the word 'belief'. It's rather a religious argument.

Given the number of galaxies in the Universe, anything from 100 billion to 2,000 billion, and on average 100 billion starts per galaxy and at least as many planets in each galaxy, I find that it's almost impossible for life not to exist elsewhere.

When I say life I mean all sorts of life from the simplest to the most complex.

We dint have to go far to find life. I think there is very good chance Europa to sustain life at the moment we speak. Perhaps an entire ecosystem could be there underneath its icy surface.

a reply to: nonspecific

If we're lucky it will turn out that civilizations have a definitive life span. And there may be billions of planets out there that can support life but if we're lucky any truly advanced civilizations nearby burned themselves out a long time ago. No Klingon or Romulan Empire to fight for living room with.

The problem being if there was an advanced one near enough to become aware of us they might consider Earth to be a wonderful place to put a colony on. Native flora and fauna be dammed. All it would really take is a couple of large dinosaur killer rocks dropped from high orbit to sterilize the planet and then they could land 10 to 20 years later to start to terraform a clean planet with their own plants and animals.

originally posted by: Direne
a reply to: Asmodeus3

Considering that the Universe contains anything between 100 billion to 2,000 billion galaxies I am pretty sure that we are not alone in the Universe.

Yes. Billion of galaxies hosting civilizations that cannot reach to each other, not even talk to each other. I call that to be alone.

Accept it. Please.

Yes. Multiple continents that cannot reach to each other, not even talk to each other. I call that to be alone, just accept it! Man will never find intelligent life across the vast distances of the oceans!

originally posted by: ntech
a reply to: nonspecific

If we're lucky it will turn out that civilizations have a definitive life span. And there may be billions of planets out there that can support life but if we're lucky any truly advanced civilizations nearby burned themselves out a long time ago. No Klingon or Romulan Empire to fight for living room with.

The problem being if there was an advanced one near enough to become aware of us they might consider Earth to be a wonderful place to put a colony on. Native flora and fauna be dammed. All it would really take is a couple of large dinosaur killer rocks dropped from high orbit to sterilize the planet and then they could land 10 to 20 years later to start to terraform a clean planet with their own plants and animals.

In our galaxy there are at least 100 million planets that could be habitable out of at least 100 billion planets altogether. If you take into account that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the Universe then you realise the chances are quite high we are not alone.

originally posted by: Tekner

originally posted by: Direne
a reply to: Asmodeus3

Considering that the Universe contains anything between 100 billion to 2,000 billion galaxies I am pretty sure that we are not alone in the Universe.

Yes. Billion of galaxies hosting civilizations that cannot reach to each other, not even talk to each other. I call that to be alone.

Accept it. Please.

Yes. Multiple continents that cannot reach to each other, not even talk to each other. I call that to be alone, just accept it! Man will never find intelligent life across the vast distances of the oceans!

This is an absolute statement that could turn out to be false.

Don't forget that it wasn't that long ago when it was believed objects that are denser than air won't be able to fly.

www.newscientist.com...#:~:text=Lord%20Kelvin%20is%20probably%20the,heavier%2Dthan%2Dair %20flight.

Lord Kelvin is probably the best-known. In 1895 he stated that “heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible”, only to be proved definitively wrong just eight years later. Even when Kelvin made his infamous statement, scientists and engineers were closing rapidly on the goal of heavier-than-air flight

We aren’t as interesting as we think we are. Or, as appears to be happening here, it’s easier to go in than out. We create our own realities and disappear in to those. Perhaps that’s what they have done. a reply to: nonspecific