Let’s Predict the Fallout from this Holiday Season

We all know the holiday season is what breaks or makes many companies.

Do you feel it, do you know deep down this season is going to be different?
I feel it. We already know a lot of the big name stores have overstocked. We know that during covid lockdown people bought too much crap. I do see a silver lining. The industries that provide experiences will do fantastic. Even in this economy places like Disney, Waterparks, Tours, are all doing fantastic.

Back to the economy. We often don’t find out about the financials of the holiday season until January, but they know how things are going mid December. There are other things happening that will make this a perfect storm. Layoffs everywhere. Higher utility costs, recession uncertainty, and higher everyday costs.

Let’s look back at history..

www.historic-newspapers.com...

1929: The Wall Street Crash Sparks the Depression. 1930: The Dust Bowls Begin. 1931: Food Riots and Banks Collapse. 1932: President Roosevelt is Elected. 1933: The First Hundred Days and The New Deal. 1934: Dust Storms and Droughts Continue. 1935: Creation of the Works Progress Administration.

Those are the main events, but there were a lot of micro events that happened. We can use those to predict what will happen. It’s not always 100% the same, but some things are cyclical and happen in similar ways.

If the holiday season is a bust, that will cause stocks to fall… I honestly don’t think we are far off from food riots either. I’ve seen it on social media people asking how to stretch food already. We know there will be changes to banking.

Remember even in those terrible times, there were many good things that happened. People learned not to waste things. Many of us had grandparents or parents that grew up during the depression. They wouldn’t even waste a single piece of string, or jar, or scrap of food. People had to rely on their neighbors because they couldn’t afford to buy things in a singular manner. I believe this made communities stronger. I believe there was more empathy for the poor knowing that anyone could be in those shoes very easily. People learned to find happiness and contentment with simple things, like quilting with colorful scraps, or whittling pieces of wood.

A lot of our comfort foods are created during down times. Things that are simple, warm and filling.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I really wish I knew. Many of us knew a recession was coming, as you can't shut down most of the world without consequences. I just wish I knew when. I am a fine artist, and I do juried art festivals. I have had my best year yet, and I have been doing this for over thirteen years. I guess that a certain percentage of the population that is financially well-off is still doing well. I'm in Texas, and things are moving along economically. But, surely it's only a matter of time?

a reply to: JAGStorm


You make it sound lovely!

Pretty sure there will be war, poverty, hunger and no Christmas for many.

There will be major losses, and things will tip for the worse I am afraid

originally posted by: KTemplar
a reply to: JAGStorm


You make it sound lovely!

Pretty sure there will be war, poverty, hunger and no Christmas for many.

There will be major losses, and things will tip for the worse I am afraid

Maybe I’m being optimistic, if there is war I don’t think it will be widespread.
If there is war it will transpire before February 2023.

I do think there will be poverty, and hunger. That is already happening.

a reply to: KMeRMoRe

I have had my best year yet, and I have been doing this for over thirteen years. I guess that a certain percentage of the population that is financially well-off is still doing well.

The ugly truth is that the pandemic made some people significantly richer.
If history repeats you should be happy to know that even during down times, the rich did not stop buying art!
I have several artist in my family, my daughter has had to turn away work because she is so busy.

The heads up for me was Walmart and Target cancelling million$ in orders. I don't expect there to be near the holiday selection as people have become accustomed to.

Our government has been very liberal in handing out surplus food to every food bank in the country, with absolutely no income or other limits; now the gov. surplus supplies have been nearly exhausted.

I plan on giving out toilet paper, pasta and baked goods this year.

a reply to: nugget1

I plan on giving out toilet paper, pasta and baked goods this year.

Those are seriously the best gifts! I also give consumables, food, spices etc.
People love them too.

a reply to: KMeRMoRe

I think to a certain extent how your state handled COVID will make some difference. The question is how much of a collapse and migration will occur from the states that went full retard.

My prediction.

All I predict about this holiday season is simple. As soon as all the endlessly repeating GD election commercials stop, the endlessly repeating GD Xmas commercials will begin.

originally posted by: TerryMcGuire
All I predict about this holiday season is simple. As soon as all the endlessly repeating GD election commercials stop, the endlessly repeating GD Xmas commercials will begin.

I had to pop on the tv to see the weather report and it was like 30 minutes of political ads! It was nuts.
I just watch YouTube now, but some political ads are on there now too.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I have wondered about this. I suspect this will be a slower than expected Xmas sales season, but not necessarily catastrophic.

I would guess however that the snap will hit the fan in January with accelerated layoffs. I would also think we'll see the food riots in the cities by March. That should be entertaining. Following that, we should see a banking crises by April.

Nothing will ever be normal again. If you enjoy this disaster remember to vote for Democrats in November. You can vote early and often!

You'll see less artificial Christmas trees for sale this year. Shortage of Chinese workers has caused this.

a reply to: musicismagic
yikes! an we were just contemplating going fake this year...you-cut trees a mile from my house was still $60. And they ran out in a week1

Has anyone got Nuclear in the "Predict the fallout" bingo yet?

originally posted by: Soloprotocol
Has anyone got Nuclear in the "Predict the fallout" bingo yet?

I'm not feeling it, I really don't think it will happen.

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: Soloprotocol
Has anyone got Nuclear in the "Predict the fallout" bingo yet?

I'm not feeling it, I really don't think it will happen.

Agreed.The 'elites' want their dystopian authoritarian future too much, they will just continue their theater pretense a bit longer

originally posted by: Moon68
My prediction.