Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: onestonemonkey

Nobody will be safe if that happens.

Never heard of M.A.D?

Apparently, not.

a reply to: onestonemonkey

Well, would it not make much more sense to Nuke Brazil?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2
Not sure if MAD applies to a dictator who may also be a psychopath who may wish to see everything destroyed if he does not get his way or looks as though his own generals are turning against him...
But i guess its better to hope he still retains some rationality for everyones sake.

a reply to: onestonemonkey

What?

If he nukes Europe what do you think will happen?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Best case scenario.

Putin will command what's left of Russia from a hole in the ground and never see a real ray of sunshine ever again.

Good luck with that sort of life.

Playing Fallout for real is most likely quite the female dog.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: onestonemonkey

What?

If he nukes Europe what do you think will happen?

Yes I know he will get Moscow turned into glass.
But MAD only works when you are dealing with rational actors.

I am not sure Putin is such a man,and if he percieves he is about to lose his precious legacy or be strung up by his own-can anyone really say he won't just say "Fck it" and press the button?.

I hope I am wrong of course.

a reply to: onestonemonkey

M.A.D works regardless of Putin's state of mind.

It is was it is.

a reply to: onestonemonkey

It's probably not just as easy as Putin pressing a button onestonemonkey.

Short of a first-strike scenario.

Their chain of command would need to follow suit.

And if there is not a kink in there where rational minds prevail.

The system is keyed towards the will of just one madman.

I have to believe the Russians are not quite that stupid.

There has to be failsafe in there somewhere to stop the likes of that from happening.

originally posted on Nov, 7 2024 by: worldstarcountry
History legends switched to covering Israel/Lebanon/Hezbollah conflict...

Russia closed off the border so another thing is happening exactly as I said, they will be dealt with in a pincer move, now with the help of North Koreans. Kursk is not even a part of the negotiations as Russia can resolve the matter as an anti-terror op within their borders with the help of friendly assets from other states/countries.

Someone was talking about posts in this thread that don't age very well.

It made me think of this worldstarcountry post. If Russia closed off the border, how is Ukraine getting the supplies to annihilate Russian assault after Russian assault in Kursk?

Are you getting this stuff from other unreliable sources besides History Legends?

I don't have much hope for negotiations, since leaders have tried making suggestions to Putin for ending the war, and Putin just replies with something like "all objectives of the special military operation will be accomplished". But if say Donald Trump proposes something like freezing the current occupied territories as part of a peace plan, I don't see how Kursk can not be a factor in those discussions if Ukraine is still there when Trump is sworn in, and right now it's looking like Ukraine will probably still be in Kursk then.

Trump is kind of a wild card, so it's hard to predict exactly what he will do when he takes office, except I don't think he will stop the war in 24 hours like he promised in his campaign.

Bottom line is Ukraine has mounted a very strong defense in Kursk, so Russia is not making much progress in its effort to kick Ukraine out of Russia. But Russia continues to make incremental advances inside Ukraine.

Also, I heard a source say Biden authorized the use of long range ATACMS missiles in Kursk. I'm not sure why only Kursk, or if that will be expanded later, but here's the story:

What does Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use longer-range US weapons mean?

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The U.S. will allow Ukraine to use American-supplied longer-range weapons to conduct strikes deeper inside Russian territory, a long-sought request by Kyiv.

It isn’t yet clear if there are limits on Ukraine’s use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, as there have been on other U.S. missile systems. Their deployment could — at least initially — be limited to Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops seized territory earlier this year.

It's still not clear what limitations (if any) Biden placed on his decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS inside Russia. Apparently it's not limited to Kursk since Ukraine just attacked a Russian ammo depot outside Kursk using ATACMS. Denys Davydov thinks Ukraine still doesn't have permission to use them on the Kerch bridge, and the cluster munitions version Ukraine is mostly getting wouldn't damage the bridge significantly anyway, Ukraine would need the non-cluster munitions version to damage the bridge, and it hasn't been receiving those.

More in the video:

Update from Ukraine | Great! Ukraine Hit the Big Ruzzian Ammunition Warehouse by ATACMS missiles

Possible Chinese fingerprints on the recent Baltic sea internet cable cutting incidents-

The Danish military says it is staying close to a Chinese ship in the country's waters amid an investigation into damage caused to underwater cables in the Baltic Sea.
Sky News' Data & Forensics unit has analysed marine tracking data that shows the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3 left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on 15 November.
It passed close to both internet cables around the time each was damaged on Sunday and Monday.

news.sky.com...-body

Yall don´t get it, MAD does not mean deterrent, only means deterrent if people are sane, which they are not, in that case, MAD means exactly that, total mutual destruction. This will escalate quickly now. I am still optimistic we wont end in a nuclear war, but remember one simple thing, if there is one, more than 3000 places will be hit by thermo nuclear weapons and high altittude weapons (EMPs). Nothing around those places will survive, not even bacteria. The rest of the world will suffer things worse than death. The entire world will be covered in fallout, except, maybe, antartica. This is NOT a #ing game.

a reply to: Andromerius

That is rather the point of MAD?

It's all down to Putin. Is he sane? Or MAD.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2
I don't know if Putin is mad or sane. But I have listened to interviews of people who worked closely with Putin over the years and know him very well, and also one man whi has worked closely against Putin for many years and at one point was Putin's number one enemy, Bill Browder. Also the Oliver Stone interviews of Putin on Showtime were very revealing about certain aspects of Putin. I also read a lot of published sources about Putin. Here's one I think is relevant:

Putin compares himself to Peter the Great in fight to expand Russia

LONDON — President Vladimir Putin has compared himself to Peter the Great, saying he shares the 18th-century czar's goal of returning "Russian lands" to a greater empire.

Speaking after visiting an exhibition to celebrate the 350th anniversary of Peter's birth on Thursday, Putin drew a parallel to his invasion of Ukraine.

"Peter the Great waged the Great Northern War for 21 years. It would seem that he was at war with Sweden, he took something from them," he said, according to a translation from Reuters. "He did not take anything from them, he returned [them]."

Referring to the Ukraine invasion he said: "Apparently, it also fell to us to return [what is Russia’s] and strengthen [the country].

So what does the title of this article suggest about Putin? It suggests that by comparing himself to Peter the great, he is recalling a historical figure and he is also thinking about how history is going to remember him. Someone who worked closely with Putin also thought this was Putin's main focus these days, since he has already accumulated more personal wealth than any one person could possibly use. I mean his chairs at his mansions are gold plated or something, because what else are you going to do when you have more money than you know what to do with?

So, how do you folks think Putin wants to be remembered?
As a successful conqueror like Peter the Great?
Or as the worst monster in the history of the world who destroyed 80% of humanity by launching nukes?

Well we have the answer from Putin himself, when he compared himself to Peter the great. That's how he wants to be remembered, maybe as "Putin the great" and have a city named "Putinsberg" or something named after him, like St. Petersburg where Putin was born was named after Peter the great.

Putin uses the nuclear threat because it works at getting his adversaries to avoid escalation, but he has had over 20 Red lines, that can't be crossed. Most have been crossed, and he hasn't used nukes.

As long as Putin thinks he can reamin in power, I don't see him using nukes, because using nukes is ultimately likely to lead to him being removed from power in my opinion. So I'm really not that concerned about the use of nukes now while Putin is dealing with the challenges to his power by arranging "accidents" for his adversaries to "accidentally" fall out of third story windows. Where I would be more concerned that Putin might use nukes, is if he sees an imminent threat to his power, using nukes could be an act of desperation. I would like to think that Putin will still be concerned with how history will remember him, and that he wants to be remembered favorably, and that might even be the case if Putin is in a desparate situation, but I wouldn't rely on that completely, because desperate people can do desperate things.

BBC News -

www.bbc.co.uk...


Kyiv says Russia has launched intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine - BBC News