Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's his business and none of yours?

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's absolutely non of his business being there whatsoever. Looking at the mercenary's name he doesn't appear to be of Slavic descent.

George Orwell was not of Hispanic decent, so you think he shouldn't have gone to Spain to fight against the fascists ?

He and thousands of other British who fought. And died.






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originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's his business and none of yours?

Lol true

That was in our neck of the woods and had the possibility of affecting us directly. FSU states are effectively far far away and we have no real historical links in any form with that region. They'll sort things out for themselves just like the Pathans and the arabs will. Time to pull out of foreign jingoistic adventures and spend the dosh on our own, not funding the mass killing of Slavs in a far away land that has no impact upon us whatsoever.

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's absolutely non of his business being there whatsoever. Looking at the mercenary's name he doesn't appear to be of Slavic descent.

George Orwell was not of Hispanic decent, so you think he shouldn't have gone to Spain to fight against the fascists ?

He and thousands of other British who fought. And died.






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a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's absolutely non of his business being there whatsoever.

Is it any business of the soon to be 100,000 North Koreans who have been ordered to fight there?
Or what about all the terrorist Houthis and similar from the Horn of Africa and other African countries?

And then consider all the murderers, nonces and sex cases Putin has granted freedom to in exchange for fighting.

This guy volunteered.
Sure, there's a high likelihood he was getting well paid.....but it was HIS choice.

I couldn't give a monkey's about Koreans, Jihadi Yemenites or space men. They can all do what the heck they like over there far far away. Let 'em get on with it. I want pot holes filled and old ladies to be able to put their fires on this winter not my taxes spent on jingoistic foreign neo colonial City derived adventures. Couldn't give a monkeys what other national loons get up to in a land far far away. let them do what they want over there as long as it doesn't efeect us on our island. Brit's should not be there. Shouldn't be there just like Afghan, Zimbabwe, Iraq etc, etc, etc, etc, etc,etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc. Why that chap is there is very much open to debate. The foreign legion without doubt will have had something to do with us, the French and Yanks for sure.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's absolutely non of his business being there whatsoever.

Is it any business of the soon to be 100,000 North Koreans who have been ordered to fight there?
Or what about all the terrorist Houthis and similar from the Horn of Africa and other African countries?

And then consider all the murderers, nonces and sex cases Putin has granted freedom to in exchange for fighting.

This guy volunteered.
Sure, there's a high likelihood he was getting well paid.....but it was HIS choice.

Russian troops have been geolocated in central Kurakhove.

ISW map just updated it showing it as well.

Ukraine War Map Reveals Russia's Rapid Front Line Advances

The Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState, which maps front line developments, said Monday that the Russian army had made "significant advances" all at one in the directions of Kurakhove as well as toward the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. There were also advances in the Kupiansk direction.

These advances present Russian forces with three possible courses of action for the upcoming winter, the ISW said, the first of which could be further advances southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to envelop the settlement from its flanks.

www.newsweek.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

You want the same as I do for this country mate.
But there's enough money in this country to help fix the mess at home and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom.....sadly the vast majority of it is in the hands of a very small minority who only seems to want to use their money to amass even more money, most of it off our backs whilst giving very, very little of it or anything back.

Another one of Putin's "Red Lines" has been crossed, sort of.
Do any of you remember in October 2023, when the Ruble was falling, and the value was about to go below 100 Rubles to the dollar?

The news reports were saying Putin found a Ruble valuation less than one hundredth of USD to be completely unacceptable, so Russian lawmakers and banks took emergency measures to prevent it from falling further. I won't re-hash all those here, but economists noted at the time that the measures could only stop the fall temporarily, and the underlying conditions causing the fall were still there, so it would resume falling eventually.

The economists who said that now appear to have been right.

-From November 2023 to about mid-November 2024, Putin's temporary emergency measures helped to prop the Ruble up, keeping it above Putins "red line" of 0.01USD (100 rubles per dollar).
-From Nov 15-19, it was struggling to stay above Putin's "red line"
-Then around Nov 20, it started falling below Putin "red line", and since then, it's been falling like a rock, as seen in the one-year chart of Russian Ruble versus USD:


As I write this, it's about 107 Rubles per USD, way past Putin's "red line" limit of 100. That's not the best chart, but just search "Ruble versus USD chart" to get the latest info, it's constantly changing, getting worse for Russia every day.

So this means that Russia's imports are going to cost more than any time in the last two years. Putin's budgeted increase in military spending for 2025 will be more than consumed by inflation, so it was not going to be a real increase even when the Ruble was stable. Now that the Ruble is tanking, the Ruble will buy less and less in foreign trade.

Like I said, Putin can no longer keep up the charade that the Russian economy is "fine", and Putin himself recently admitted it's not fine, after spending the last two years trying to convince the world that the Russian economy was fine.

How much does this recent crash in the Ruble have to do with Putin's nuclear saber rattling? That's a good question, but I think the Ruble was destined to fall below Putin's "red line" eventually no matter what, because Russia's economic fundamentals just couldn't continue supporting the inflated valuation. I think it had a lot to do with Russia's top banker stating the only way Russia could escape their spiraling inflation was with a deep recession, followed by Putin finally admitting the Russian economy was in trouble.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

That won't improve his mood!

Wonder if interest rates will rocket even higher?

But then I'm no economist.

a reply to: Freeborn

So Ukraine's efforts to resist and repel the Russian invaders is also an 'anti-terror operation'?
If it's ok for Russia to use up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers and Houthi Islamic terrorists is it also ok for Ukraine to use similar tactics and resources?

Sure it is ok, but they cannot pay for it. They can import however many and whomever they wish. However, Ukraine does not run this war. You need to stop pretending there is some kind of independent government in Ukraine, it is primarily managed by American, British, French, German and Polish officials.

As a taxpaying citizen, I also have the right to vote a President who will stop funding that war which has nothing to do with American security, but like Syria is really about European energy security. Lets stop pretending this was anything but European Neo-colonialism commanding American military muscle through subservient globalist puppets for more market dominance and resources in the backyard (sphere of influence) of the largest Nuclear armed competitor on the planet.

How many times has Russia's borders expanded when confronted by a marching military threat? That threat in this case was NATO, with its open desire to use Ukraine as a springboard to funnel more NGO's, trucks and planes loaded with cash and cell phones to the border areas and continue to recruit dissidents for violent anti-government protests as our Empire has been doing since WW2 in hopes of continuing to splinter off a region here, a state there; in their perfectly little calibrated war machine.

I bring up Syria because this operation is a continuation of the neo-colonial behavior of the European elites there regarding market control and energy security/transit fees etc.. etc.. all those nice things thousands and thousands of shippers have to pay fees on everyday just to pass and the extra fees tacked on to end receivers of pipeline fuel. After all which military power actually threw a wrench in those plans that involve wholesale destruction of societies in order to appoint new leaders and liberate that market to foreign capitol? Oh yea that was Russia.

The plans of the elites of Europe have failed twice in two decades to secure favorable energy security and domination over untapped emerging markets while attempting to use mostly American assets due to puppet master control (agency capture) over American politicians to the globalist cabal. Now your leaders want to bring another nasty part of European legacy to the world, a THIRD WORLD WAR.

Well we are checking out, Ukraine's problems are not American problems. Hopefully we defund and burn down whatever bio-labs are left and any of the dirt that exposes our corrupt former leadership I welcome to be presented to the global audience for the sake of accountability. Europe is more than welcome to fund and fight this WW3, America has had enough. It is your, as in the European peoples' resource war, not America's.

As far as how is Zelensky a dictator?? Well that horse has been beaten dead for years now. The good news is with all the men dead, there will be a surplus of working women, disposable working women at that, to feed the European human trafficking market for decades to come. The Organ black market is doing really well now, but will likely slow down once the war ends. I sometimes wonder if they keep ordering men to die just to continue harvesting organs for rich Asians, Europeans and North Americans. Who could know these things? only the ones carrying it out day in and day out.

a reply to: Arbitrageur
That is fine and dandy, but Russia does the majority of its trading in non dollar transactions now, so I guess that is kind of pointless for them now isnt it? Not only that, but they are kind of spearheading an alternative global financial system that ignores the USD for the most part...

So yea the war sucks and my one penny buys a Ruble, but they are importing for things and not paying in dollars from partners more than willing to pay in not dollars. so it is like cheering on a foul ball so to speak. yea there is a hit, didn't really go anywhere though.

War leaks dropped some more footage. Amazing javelin kill early on in the video on a Russian BMP just after infantry disembark towards a tree line. A little bit later we get footage of a single leopard tank holding back an entire column of mixed Russian armored vehicles. Plenty of FPV strikes and allegations of a strike on North Korean generals. If anything these videos do help to serve a good marketing strategy for future modern weapons sales and that tanks are not quite obsolete yet.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Arbitrageur

That won't improve his mood!

Wonder if interest rates will rocket even higher?

But then I'm no economist.

Russia will make a decision in December 2024 about what to do with interest rates. The emergency rate was 20%, and they are already past that at 21% for the key interest rate, though borrowers in Russia end up paying even more like 25% or 26%. There are now predictions that 21% will go up to 23% in December, some suggested higher. It may end up higher in 2025.

The Russian banks have an even bigger problem than high interest rates. The Ruble fell so far and so fast that Russia has stopped trading on the Ruble, when it got to about 113 or 114 to the USD. At a currency exchange in Russia, a dollar will buy you 108 rubles, but if you want to convert rubles to a dollar, you need 118 rubles. So 113 is right in the middle and the difference between 108 and 118 is to cover the expenses of the currency exchange.

What tends to happen in cases like this is the development of a black market for the currency. The government stated exchange rate may be one thing, but when trading is not allowed, a black market develops for the currency at a different rate. This indicates a serious issue with the Russian currency, and the overall Russian economy:

Russia tries to stem panic over the plummeting ruble, as the central bank is forced to intervene

-Russian authorities are trying to stem panic over the ruble’s sharp fall this week, with the central bank stepping in to suspend the currency in a situation, while Kremlin flagged an unnecessary “panic.”
-The ruble weakened to 114 against the greenback — its the lowest level since March 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.
-Russia’s central bank was forced to intervene on Wednesday to try to prop up the flailing currency.

a reply to: worldstarcountry
I can usually count on you and "Moscow Marge" aka Marjorie Taylor Green to echo the Kremlin talking points.
But the fact is inflation is already high in Russia, and the Ruble is absolutely crashing, or was until the central bank shut down trading. Why would Putin be telling people not to panic if there's no reason to panic? Of course that's what he would say even if there is reason to panic, which some Russians are doing. Whatever is imported is going to cost more when purchased with Rubles, so the already high inflation might get worse.

Exports should theoretically get a boost when a currency is weak, all else being equal, but, all else is not equal. The emergency interest rate at 21% is not sustainable and if it's increased to 23% as expected next month, it will get even worse.

Bankruptcies are likely to happen as explained here by a Russian executive (I posted a Russian person saying this so you'll be less likely to think this is just western propaganda).
Can Russia sustain its war effort as ruble plummets, inflation soars?

Sergei Chemezov, CEO of state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, has lashed out at the Central Bank repeatedly.

"If we continue working this way, most enterprises will essentially go bankrupt," he said in October. "The question today is this: either we cease all high-tech exports — airplanes, air defense systems, ships, and so on, which require production timelines of a year or more — or we need to take some measures."

Opposition politician Milov said that Chemezov and Nabiullina "are both right" in their own way.

"Chemezov is right that businesses will have to shut down at such a (high interest) rate," he told the Kyiv Independent, "Nabiullina is right that the rate cannot be cut because in that case there will be hyperinflation like in Turkey."

He continued that "there is only one way out — finish the war and withdraw Russian troops" from Ukraine.

So the high interest rates will cause bankruptcies, and they can't lower interest rates because hyperinflation will result if they do, so they are between a rock and a hard place on monetary policy.

My guess is Putin is willing to let lots of businesses in Russia go bankrupt so he can keep fighting his war. In fact maybe that's how the "deep recession" predicted by Russian bankers will start. Putin can divert more resources away from public services like heating, to pay for bombs, there will be more Russians freezing to death as he continues to cut maintenance on heating systems though. I don't think he cares about them any more than he cares about the hundreds of thousands of soldiers he's sending to their deaths.

a reply to: Arbitrageur
Hey man, its almost over. That is why they are pushing faster and harder in Ukraine and Turkey and Israel just launched a surprise in Syria with those radical Islamists that always seem to get nice Israeli air support targeting the Syrian army just prior to them starting another flashpoint again with Islamic terrorists. How nice of Israel to provide initial air support on the Lebanese Syrian border striking the Syrian army.

We all going to see some spontaneous actions over the next two months. A bunch of hail-mary passes are about to go into play all over the world before the new American administration begins its commitment to transforming our foreign and domestic policy agendas.

But at least I can count on you to let me know how the Russian economy is doing. I probably would not know about their interest rates if it werent for you, so thats cool. If the regular Russian is still able to get pissed at the clubs on nights and weekends though, they probably are not in as bad a situation as is routinely sold.

a reply to: worldstarcountry
Yes Putin is pushing for as much of Ukraine's territory as he can occupy before Trump is sworn in.
But what happened with your post saying Russia had closed the border to Kursk, cutting off Ukraine there?
Russia keeps attacking over and over, and even the thousands of North Korean soldiers are now flooding into the Kursk battle areas to try to drive Ukraine out, but Ukraine keeps holding significant territory in Kursk, which I think Putin is starting to realize is going to be a big problem when Trump takes office. It looks like whatever source you used to post that Ukraine was in trouble in Kursk wasn't reliable.

I think people didn't understand the Kursk strategy, and I'm not 100% sure I do either, but my guess is, the strategy is to make it impossible for Putin to agree to currently occupied territories as part of a peace plan, because I don't think Putin can agree to let Ukraine occupy Kursk as part of a peace deal because it will make Putin look weak. I could be wrong. We'll see, but whatever happens, I think that's probably Ukraine's plan for being there.

Russia previously used their military to prop up the Assad regime in Syria, but I think it speaks to Russia's weakened military state that they do not seem to be saving Assad's regime now, probably because they've devoted so many resources to Ukraine and they just don't have enough surplus to deal with Syria too. The fact they need so many thousands of North Koreans to help them also speaks to their weakness, and even with all that help, Russia's military seems to be failing to meet Putin's objective to kick Ukraine out of Kursk in the near term.

Whether the regular Russian will have problems with Russia's economy depends on how deep the coming recession is, but even the Russian bankers are calling for it to be quite deep. The Ruble has devalued by 25% in the last 3 months, so they can still buy stuff but for imports, they will get 25% less for the same amount.

The inside Russia youtube channel says the coming divide in Russia will be between those who work for the government/military-industrial complex, who will be OK, and those who don't, who will not be OK, effective the second half of 2025. He explains what's happened in Russia's economy and what's coming (such as many bankruptcies, which I mentioned in my last post) in this video:

SHOCKING Russian Ruble Collapse Explained

The thread on the subject was closed as seemed a concluded event but according to Moscow Times four Russian officials have admitted that the 'Oreshnik' missile was a PR stunt after nuclear weapon threats failed and is at least five years away from entering production with no real current reserves.

They do have reserves of existing missiles with simiar tech that can cause more damage by carrying warheads but the 'superweapon' but the strike caused minimal damage and was a propaganda stunt rather than a developed tech that coukd take out C&C centres as Russia claimed.

Kremlin Stages Oreshnik Propaganda Blitz as Nuclear Threats Lose Their Potency

a reply to: bastion
Of course it was a PR stunt. Even though some people on ATS and social media started freaking out and talking about WWIII impending doom, fortunately wiser heads prevailed among western politicians who recognized it for what it was.

Did anybody see this Lavrov interview by Tucker Carlson, the clown who was trying to stoke WWIII fears by claiming that the US and Russia didn't have "back channels" to prevent nuclear conflict? Lavrov assured Carlson that there are back channels working and in fact said that the US was notified at least 30 minutes in advance of that ballistic missile test fired at Ukraine to assure the west it didn't have any nukes. Lavrov also said Russia is not at war with the US, contrary to what I see people here saying. Of course Lavrov also says plenty of complete bullcrap too, like Russia really cares about the generations of people who grew up in the Donbas. A lot of people in the Donbas will tell you that's false because Russia leveled their homes and their cities which they wouldn't do if they really cared about the people.

In contrast, Ukraine isn't leveling people's homes in Kursk; if anybody is doing that, it's Russia, trying to drive Ukraine out.

Here's the Lavrov interview; it's long, but noteworthy for how much Lavrov was downplaying nuclear conflict, and NOT rattling Russia's nuclear sabre.

Exclusive: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov talks to Tucker Carlson

Here's a video by William Spaniel about how Russia had a bad week, starting with the medium range ballistic missile which was supposed to be seen as a nuclear threat, not being taken seriously as a nuclear threat by western powers, who shrugged it off as the 25th red line they've crossed by letting Ukraine fire ATACMS into Kursk. I guess Russia was hoping for more fear and hysteria, but they didn't get it:

Russia's Awful Week Could Not Have Come at a Worse Time for the Kremlin


The lack of fear from the medium range ballistic missile was just one issue of the 5 things discussed which made it a bad week for Russia, here's the list of topics discussed:

He thinks Russia losing so much influence in Syria is the worst problem the Kremlin faced, because not only do they lose their middle east influence, but Syria is the base from which they influenced Africa so it is likely to negatively impact Russia's influence in Africa somewhat. So not only did Russia allegedly have their highest casualty day since the war began, but by putting all their eggs in the Ukraine basket they didn't have enough left to defend their Syria interests.

Things are not going well for Russia in Georgia either, it's reminiscent of the 2014 situation in Ukraine where the Russian puppet couldn't hold power when the Kremlin bribed him to betray Ukraine.

The Sun have just published an exclusive Interview with ‘Caesar’ , leader of the Freedom of Russia Legion.