Eight reasons Putin may not be bluffing about using nuclear weapons

Whatever we may think of Putin or Zelensky, and whatever propaganda we choose to believe or not believe, one thing I believe is certain. This is not going to end well if the present path continues to be trod regardless of the warnings coming out of Russia from Putin. De-escalation needs to happen sooner rather than later, or we may find the whole of civilization in upheaval.

The OP is titled after a New York Post article written a few days ago by the same name. Their reasons seems plausible, so I will list them here, but not the accompanying text. You'll need to read the article for yourself...

1. Putin is psychologically capable of crossing the nuclear threshold, especially when he feels cornered. (This is something I have pointed out in the recent. It shouldn't be overlooked in my opinion.)

2. Putin likely thinks this is his “last and decisive battle.”

3.Russia’s post-Cold War doctrine includes a nuclear fallback option designed exactly for the kind of situation Moscow now faces.

4. Putin likely believes that he will use nuclear weapons for the same reason the US did in Japan during WWII — to end the conflict.

5. The outcome in Ukraine is an existential issue for both Russia and Putin.

6. Putin orchestrated the annexation of the four seized regions of Ukraine, following phony referendums, precisely so he could use the nuclear option.

7. Putin is worried about projecting weakness to China.

8. Putin probably estimates that launching a low-yield nuclear strike in Ukraine will not trigger a US response, and certainly not with nuclear weapons.

If it happens at all, I think the last one is a likely scenario. At least at first. Everything could go south from there.

Is Putin bluffing?
Source

Woops... I posted a comment to the wrong thread somehow.

i could see China using a nuke before I see Putin using one. I can only see him using one as a Dr. Strangelove protocol scenario, not as an offensive attack strategy.

I know lots of media talking heads like to talk about how irrational he is, but the lead-up to the War of Ukrainian Aggression was very predictable and rational, assuming you don't get your foreign policy info from the WH press secretary. It was agreed upon that NATO would not expand, and arming any territory bordering Russia would be viewed as an act of hostility. And then that played out to predictable results. (along with some other intra-ukrainian drama involving those 2 Russian-aligned territories)

a reply to: Klassified

The NATO nations don't require nuclear weapons and could beat Russia like a drum using conventional ordnance alone.

Should Putin choose to use low-yield battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine he's as apt to irradiate/contaminate his own forces as he is anyone else.

Is Putin bluffing?

He's backed into a corner and willing to expend millions of lives to satisfy his sick fantasy.

Aka a return of Russia to the world stage with some kind of semblance of the former USSR.

Truth is whether or not the mad bastard chooses to use nukes his nation is now a pariah in Europe and going to be hated/mistrusted for decades and generations to come.

a reply to: andy06shake

I doubt he'd nuke Ukraine.

More likely he would target the nations interfering with his operation.

The only ones talking about nukes is the western MSM, politicians, and their useful idiots. It would have to escalate much more before that would even be an option.

Since the beginning of this conflict it's been one fear psy-op after another. First it was Chernobyl 2.0 and it's now escalated to Russian nuclear tsunamis.

What would be awesome is if we didn't have a president so corruptly entangled with Ukraine that he would risk WWIII rather than allow his criminal dealings to be exposed. There must be some nefarious **** going on in Ukraine. It is after all the human trafficking capital of Europe...

a reply to: watchitburn

If he nukes a NATO nation watchitburn NATO forces would return the favor.

And if he is ready to do anything as stupid as that, you have to wonder why the waste of time, effort, and resources conscripting 300,000 men?

a reply to: Klassified

Jeez, talk about predictive programming. As I have noted in another thread the only people actually talking about nukes and using the actual word nukes IS NOT Russia.

And here is an article from The Atlantic, form June ffs.

What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

a reply to: Klassified

Putin is very probably considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The only good reason to do so, from his perspective would be to end the war on his terms. That would mean using them before all his troops get kicked out of Ukraine. That would mean using them in the next few months. I’m pretty sure that that’s why we’re hearing about it right now—the IC is picking up SIGINT chatter on this. Using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield probably wouldn’t end the war on his terms. The only use I could see that might make sense would be a strike on Kyiv to decapitate the Zelensky regime. Even that might not end the war on his terms. The US and NATO would almost certainly respond strongly. Almost certainly not with nuclear weapons. If Putin used them and didn’t win the war, he would almost certainly accidentally fall off the balcony of a 23 story apartment. He might anyway.

Tactical nukes will be used against Ukraine.

Wait a sec. The MSM is talking about nukes BECAUSE Putin SAID he would use them and also, "I'm not bluffing." Did you miss that part? And I believe him: He's not bluffing.

Of course, if he actually did, he's as good as dead. It's unfortunate, because Russia as a country was doing okay. They had revenue. Their standard of living was rising. They were plugged into the international system. Things were working, but then Putin has to go and make up Nazi enemies that did not exist, so now he has dragged Russia back a couple of generations.

And what this has done is show how inept the vaunted Russian army actually is. Why did anyone worry about these bozos for so many years? They are a complete joke! They have gone from "the second best army in the world" to the "second best army in Ukraine."

What an incredibly stupid move on Putin's part!

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: Klassified

Jeez, talk about predictive programming. As I have noted in another thread the only people actually talking about nukes and using the actual word nukes IS NOT Russia.

And here is an article from The Atlantic, form June ffs.

What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

I agree it's the one thing about all of this, our intelligence capabilities have seemed to be spot on.

Yes there are a number of articles and reasons he likely won't use nukes, #1 I've seen mentioned is his troops aren't well trained for it #2 even in a low-yield nuke, the prevailing winds will likely irradiate his troops, eastern and southeastern Ukraine you know those places they want to occupy, and on down the line parts of Russia itself. Even as a desperate move it's scorched earth theme doesn't make sense either. Not gonna have many glowing Ukrainian converts to Russia.

a reply to: schuyler

Wait a sec. The MSM is talking about nukes BECAUSE Putin SAID he would use them and also, "I'm not bluffing." Did you miss that part? And I believe him: He's not bluffing.

I didn't miss it, but a few others did.

a reply to: putnam6

Putin doesn't have to use nukes. The world just needs to believe he did.

originally posted by: Klassified
a reply to: putnam6

Putin doesn't have to use nukes. The world just needs to believe he did.

Agreed. It's a good psychological ploy to freak people out. But it has also united countries against him who otherwise would be bickering amongst each other. Who would have thought that Putin would have revitalized NATO and gotten Sweden and Finland begging to join up? Good job, Vlad!

a reply to: Klassified

Go big or go home.

Aaaaaand Putin ain't going home.

We'll see nukes.

And we can blame Biden for this.

Why you ask?

Bidens oil/gas policies weakened the US and Europe because the green programs can't do it.

Biden screwed up in Afghanistan.

Putin took advantage of the weakness caused by Bidens oil and foreign policies.

a reply to: Klassified

IF Putin is crazy enough to launch a nuke, he will launch a nuke.

Unless someone (likely from his I will circle of goons) stops him.


He is the only one who can make that decision, for himself. He needs no further justification, no rationalization, no "provocation". Likewise, none of these things will dissuade him, once he has made his fateful decision, either.

It is the height of naivete to believe that a psychopath like Putin can be reasoned with, negotiated to some mutually acceptable and enduring compromise. He has already proven, by his actions, as well as his stated desires, that he cannot be trusted to abide by any "negotiated settlement". He has claimed that his actions in Ukraine were based on a desire to "protect" Russia and Russians from the encroaching west. But that begs the question: "What will protect dear Russia, and its People, from that same encroachment once Russia's borders are moved even further west with the capture of Ukraine? When will "far enough" actually be far enough for him to feel secure?"


I am resigned to the likelihood that Putin will set off at least one nuke, expecting the West to "fall to its knees in trembling fear" and accede to his demands.

The West would be foolish to do so.

That would simply be setting ourselves up for future blackmail. And the gods only knows what Putin (or his successor(s), once the pattern is set) will demand the next time. And the next. And the next.



Make no mistake, Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.) is NOT an "automatic" thing; there are many, many "offramps" built into the decision tree, on both sides, available.

a reply to: Klassified

He isn't bluffing! He wants the Ukraine to be his legacy! He has no right to threaten millions of people, not to mention our entire Ecosystem, because he is bat#### crazy! Why peace for so long and suddenly he absolutely has to have the Ukraine? Trump would have given it to him, but now he chooses war!?!?

originally posted by: Klassified
a reply to: putnam6

Putin doesn't have to use nukes. The world just needs to believe he did.

I mean unless it's an extremely low yield it will be obvious to independent multiple sensors in the area, It's how we knew of Chernobyl, there are extremely sensitive monitoring stations all over eastern Europe, to pull it off would take massive amounts of lying and cover-up.

even then sooner or later somebody would know each one of those dots on the map below is an independent radiation monitor, to fake it they would have to have some sort of release.

remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu...

lastly here is the nuke map, even a half-kiloton blast is gonna be trackable, and difficult to fake, doesn't the particles themselves have a traceable signature

nuclearsecrecy.com...



Lastly, we have the tech to trace nuclear explosions it would seem

www.science.org...

a reply to: Backagain

With Trump a president all this would not have happened. Trump would not have given him Ukraine, that's your delusional thinking. Putin sees a very weak leader, being advised by weak people, occupying the WH. That is the main reason he acted now.