I just want to leave that following text here because i have not that much time today but i will try to join the discussion from time to time:
The time of unrest
Risk consultant predicts "unprecedented increase in internal unrest" in many countries worldwide; high risk exists in Germany. First mass protests
against widespread impoverishment have begun in Great Britain.
BERLIN/LONDON (Own report) - A British risk consultancy is predicting an "unprecedented increase in internal unrest" in more than half of the
world's countries, including many European states in particular. According to a recent study by Verisk Maplecroft, "socio-economic risks" are
currently reaching "critical levels" with inflation above six percent in "more than 80 percent of all countries worldwide"; the "severity and
frequency of protests and labor activism can be expected to intensify further in the coming months." Wealthy countries would seek to immobilize the
masses with spending programs, while harsher repression could be expected in poorer countries, he said. Among the countries most at risk of internal
unrest is Germany, according to Veritas Maplecroft. The German government has just approved its third "relief package." Meanwhile, in the UK,
arguably the biggest wave of strikes and protests in decades has begun. Over the weekend, tens of thousands also took to the streets against the
threat of impoverishment for the first time in the EU - in Prague.
At a critical level
Large parts of the world are facing an "unprecedented increase in internal unrest." That's the conclusion reached by Bath, U.K.-based risk
consultancy Verisk Maplecroft in the latest edition of its Civil Unrest Index, a survey that analyzes current global risks. According to the survey,
the likelihood of civil unrest already increased in the past quarter in the majority of the 198 countries surveyed. In the next six months, "further
deterioration" is expected in a large number of countries, the firm writes [1]: In "more than 80 percent of all countries worldwide," inflation is
above six percent; "socioeconomic risks" are reaching "critical levels." Around half of all countries are classified as "high" or "extreme
risk" in the Civil Unrest Index. While conditions for civil unrest were emerging in a growing number of countries, "the severity and frequency of
protests and worker activism can be expected to intensify in the coming months," the company says.
Worse than expected
Veritas Maplecroft points out that the situation worldwide has already become more severe than suspected during the crises of recent years. The
company had predicted at the end of 2020 that by August 2022, the "risk of internal unrest" would increase in 75 countries.[2] "The reality has
been much worse," Veritas Maplecroft states, noting that 120 countries have experienced an increase in tensions within their own populations.[3] To a
large extent, it says, the countries affected by the current forecast are those in Europe. Indeed, conditions on the European continent are coming to
a head as a result of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia. According to Veritas Maplecroft, the countries most affected by the
risk of internal unrest include Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Ukraine.
Money or repression
With regard to Europe, Veritas Maplecroft firmly assumes that the governments concerned will try to prevent unrest with spending programs. Where that
is not possible, sheer repression may become the "primary response to anti-government protests."[4] Repression, of course, carries its own risks: it
leaves "disaffected populations with fewer mechanisms" to "channel" their discontent. Add to this the fact that the weather could prove to be a
decisive factor: "A cold autumn and winter in Europe would exacerbate an already serious energy and cost-of-living crisis." At the same time,
inflation in the coming year is already expected to exceed that of the current year, he said. "Only a significant reduction in global food and energy
prices can stop the negative global trend in the risk of domestic unrest," Veritas Maplecroft predicts; otherwise, "the next six months may prove
even more disruptive" than suspected.
Enough is enough
The U.K. is the first country in Europe to be hit by a wave of strikes and protests. There, a recent poll found that 23 percent of adults in Britain
are preparing not to turn on their heating at all in the coming winter because of the cost. For several weeks, a campaign ("Enough is Enough")
supported by trade unionists and several initiatives has been mobilizing against the "cost of living crisis"; within just 24 hours, Enough is Enough
had gained more than 100,000 supporters, and half a million people have now signed up to the campaign. The protest is reflected in numerous strikes -
for example, in local and long-distance transport, at the post office or in ports; even a general strike is being discussed.[6] Another initiative
("Don't Pay UK") is calling for direct debits for energy suppliers to be canceled in the fall and, if necessary, for energy bills to no longer be
paid if a sufficient number of supporters - one million - is reached. According to a recent survey, the initiative can already hope for 1.7 million
supporters.[7]
Delegitimization attempts
Over the weekend, mass protests against the impending impoverishment of large sections of the population took place for the first time in the EU. In
Prague, some 70,000 people took to the streets on Saturday - demanding that the governing coalition finally bring energy prices under control.
Otherwise, they threatened to "destroy our economy this fall," the organizer of the event was quoted as saying.[8] The massive support of the EU and
NATO for the Ukraine war was also denounced. According to reports, unlike in Britain, the protests in Prague were composed of heterogeneous political
spectrums, including the Communist Party on the one hand, and forces of the far right on the other. Prime Minister Petr Fiala tried to delegitimize
the demonstrators by claiming that they were "pro-Russian forces" acting "against the interests of the Czech Republic."[9] Whether the accusation
that those protesting against rapidly rising prices were serving alleged Russian interests will hold up in the long run in the face of impending
impoverishment remains to be seen. In the meantime, the first smaller protests are taking place in a number of other EU countries.
[1] Torbjorn Soltvedt: 101 countries witness rise in civil unrest in last quarter. maplecroft.com 01.09.2022.
[2] Tim Campbell, Miha Hribernik: A dangerous new era of civil unrest is dawning in the United States and around the world. maplecroft.com
10.12.2020.
[3], [4] Torbjorn Soltvedt: 101 countries witness rise in civil unrest in last quarter. maplecroft.com 01.09.2022.
[5] Kalyeena Makortoff: Nearly a quarter of UK adults plan to keep heating off this winter, poll finds. theguardian.com 29.08.2022.
[6] Donald Macintyre: 'People are much angrier now': why Britain is going on strike. theguardian.com 28.08.2022.
[7] Severia Bel: Don't Pay UK has the right idea - but it's not enough. opendemocracy.net 01.09.2022.
[8], [9] 70,000 Czechs take to the streets against government, EU and NATO. euronews.com 04.09.2022.
German-Foreign-Policy.com
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